51 days from now is near end of July. If Astros want Tucker this year in playoffs, they likely want him before end of July so he's ready for playoffs. Astros are likely more concerned with getting extra year (65 days into season or so) than getting that an extra year without an extra year or paying arbitration (Super 2) for Tucker. Considering Alvarez will have plenty of time to adjust as his Super 2 hits 51 days earlier than Tucker's, Astros will go for Super 2.
Do you think Alvarez and/or Tucker will be held in minors all year (Edit) or close to trade deadline? Or do you think Super 2 likely is going to be later even though a lot of prospects are already up? I just want to be sure what we are disagreeing on. White probably had less than 10 days before he's traded or DFA before Springer's injury. I'd expect Fisher if Astros want to be extra cautious with Super 2. Though, I would still expect Alvarez up in a couple of weeks.
Super two isn’t a set date and it’s not the same for all players. Super two for Alvarez is likely sometime in late May or Early June. I’d expect him up sometime around June 10 or so. For tucker, he has something like 50 days of service time. So to get another year of club control they need to keep him down like 65 days. I’d be shocked if he was up before then. For his super two it’s something like (probably) 110 days, into late July. So, fisher gets first shot now (or straw) Alvarez is next man up in early-mid June, Tucker is down at a minimum until Early June (club control) but likely late July (around the trade deadline). That’s my guess and reading of the tea leaves.
Super 2 is based on Top 22% of guys with at least 2 years of service. A quick look has the last day of May as a worst case and early May as best case with teams usually waiting a few days in June in most cases for most years. This year, quite a few guys were brought up early. You are probably right that Astros will likely chicken out and pull up Fisher for a few days after I've had a night to sleep on it, but 3 years from now, I doubt the Super 2 date is determined to be later than yesterday.
I didn’t explain it well when I said it’s not the same for everyone. My point was that bc tucker has service time already, Super two for him, if he sticks this year, is whatever super two is for Yordan plus another 7 or so weeks. I’d be literally shocked if he comes up before 65 days into the season though, which is his club control number for another season.
Not surprising. Unless they change their mind on the 13th pitcher, I'm assuming White is gone when Altuve comes back shortly, and Kemp/Fisher are placeholders for Tucker/Alvarez/Springer until whenever.
The fix was in last night. Hinch said in his post game press conference that Marisnick is banged up from playing so much. Translation: we have to bring up someone that can play CF so no Alvarez or Tucker even though we have Kemp that can play some CF......
I’d be very surprised. Unless they need another outfielder/platoon guy post Alvarez and before tucker get to super 2 in late July...
No way on super 2 concerns for straw. You worry about super two with guys who have star potential ceiling- that’s when it can be a 20 million dollar decision. A guy like straw you don’t have to worry about service time manipulation on super two. He gets called up the second he has a spot on the roster where he can help the team.
Unfortunately (or fortunately) we have more big leaguers than spots right now so we can rattle off a number of guys that deserve a roster spot. As a joke Luhnow should tell Straw that he needs to work on catching and being a lefty relief specialist if he wants to crack the big leagues.
