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The Trump Economy, 2017-2020

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by dandorotik, Mar 10, 2017.

  1. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    Its not a political issue. Its an economic issue.

    As far as goimg with the best workers we arent talking about complicated jobs. Putting round pegs into round holes.

    It only boils down to who does it for less
     
  2. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    This isnt 1800

    The world is smaller. The easier it is to move the job the more competitive Americans have to be as far as wages
     
  3. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    Productivity isn't about who is putting round holes into round pegs. It's about sick days, infrastructure, transportation system, lack of war, working conditions, technology, logistics, and other things. All of things are what make hiring an American worker better than someone in another country.
     
  4. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    Thats the point. Its not just about technology making its easier to move jobs to other countries.

    These countries are catching up in things like education and infrastructure. When people talk about how great things were for American workers in the 50s and 60s, Europe in particular was still rebuilding after WWII
     
  5. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I think you are very misinformed on how this stuff works. As another country builds infrastructure and improves productivity, their workers increase in cost. There's always a balancing act. That's why today, there's actually more manufacturing being done in the US than ever in its history, and the US still leads the world in manufacturing.

    But there are far far fewer manufacturing jobs. It's not that the jobs left for other countries, it's that productivity has increased so much you need far less workers.

    If what you said was true, then only way to protect jobs would be through tariffs because other countries would have companies that could produce cheaper goods due to the lower labor costs and out compete US companies. But that is not really the case.

    The reality is that reason for low wage growth is that employers are keeping more the money themselves. Instead of hiring more workers, they just make current workers work longer hours and get more out of them.
     
  6. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    The reality is there are a bunch of reasons wages in this country have decreased.

    I dont disagree about automation. But you may say im mistaken on companies leaving but thats reality. Factories have left

    Companies pay what they need to pay. They haven't all gotten together and conspired against the worker. And all that being said unios and the like cant solve this.
     
  7. TheresTheDagger

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  8. dmoneybangbang

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    Trump has both been great for the economy but unable to get out of his own way. We are undergoing a tech boom/industrial revolution while trying to change world trade.
     
  9. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    Thanks Obama (and Deep State).
     
  10. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Germany isn't trapped in the 1800s nor have their worker and wage protections regressed.

    We can argue all day about the race to the bottom and rust belt areas but it still doesn't diminish organized labor's influence to worker protections.

    Collective bargaining evens the playing field whilr income inequality is a growing issue across the nation.
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  11. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    Its not just about workers. American companies have to compete globally. They cant just dictate price of products. Products are cheaper that affects wages
     
  12. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    Again this is a false narrative. If product were dictating wages why is it that wages make up a smaller and smaller portion of corporate earnings? Why is it that executive pay has skyrocketed?
     
  13. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    this morning's WSJ

    The Tide Keeps Rising
    The Trump policy mix continues to pay economic dividends.
    By
    The Editorial Board
    April 26, 2019 6:52 p.m. ET

    With the comeback in financial markets this year, we probably should have seen it coming. But the headline rebound in first quarter growth to 3.2% reported Friday is still a pleasant surprise that shows again that the U.S. economy is remarkably resilient when government doesn’t get in the way.

    The Keynesians who predicted an imminent recession are pointing out flaws in the GDP details, and they’re right that volatile categories like net exports (1.03%), inventory growth (0.65%) and state and local government (0.41%) contributed substantially to growth. Strip out those categories and growth would have been 1.3%.

    Yet the government shutdown took some 0.3% off growth and that won’t be repeated in the second quarter. Auto sales took 0.49% off GDP in the quarter, but sales rebounded in March heading into the second quarter. Overall consumer spending contributed a relatively small 0.82% to GDP, perhaps due to the fall in consumer confidence after the stock market swoon in the last months of 2018. With job growth strong and wages rising, consumers should contribute more to the expansion the rest of this year.

    Private business investment kicked in a relatively measly 0.27% in the quarter, which is disappointing. But the nearby chart shows how much private capital investment has driven the rebound in growth since 2017. Business investment fell through the floor in the last half of 2015 and 2016, offset in part by a robust housing market. But that has reversed since Donald Trump took office, with business investment taking the lead as housing slowed and moved into negative territory in late 2018 and the first quarter of 2019.

    What changed? Well, the economic policy mix. The Trump Administration lifted the threat of new regulation and harassment of business in 2017, which liberated long-stifled animal spirits. Then came the Trump tax reform with its sharp reduction in business tax rates and immediate 100% expensing of new investment. This was targeted precisely to stimulate the weak capital investment that had stymied growth in the Obama years.

    This has also kept the U.S. expansion going even as growth in the rest of the world has slowed markedly. U.S. growth over the last four quarters year over year is now above 3%. Politicians in Germany or France would be elated, and maybe faint dead over, if they could keep growth above 3% for 12 months.

    Unlike the years leading up to the last recession, the current economy isn’t as dependent on the housing market. Many economists consider housing to be a form of consumption, while capital investment in equipment, intellectual property and new plants pays off for years to come in better productivity and higher wages. This is the tax-reform gift that keeps on giving as lower tax rates that are fixed in law raise the return on capital that encourages more investment. In other words, tax reform isn’t a “sugar high.”

    The first quarter was also notable for the slowdown in inflation, with the price index for gross domestic purchases rising 0.8%. That’s the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2016. Even with the recent rise in oil prices, there’s no inflation case that the Federal Reserve should resume raising interest rates.

    With the Fed on hold, the biggest remaining obstacle to new investment continues to be U.S. trade policy. This is less about specific tariffs, though those are problems, than about the uncertainty over whether tariffs will be lifted or new ones imposed and whether global supply chains will have to be revamped.

    President Trump can go far to eliminate this uncertainty by concluding a trade deal with China, lifting the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico that he promised to lift in 2018, and taking tariffs on European and Japanese cars off the table (see the editorial nearby). These decisions are all at Mr. Trump’s discretion and don’t rely on Congress.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hasn’t said whether she’ll hold a vote on the revised U.S., Mexico and Canada trade pact, but that won’t hurt the economy unless Mr. Trump withdraws unilaterally from the original Nafta deal that is still in effect. He’ll have more leverage on that score if he wins re-election, which depends on continued economic growth this year and through 2020.

    In addition to judges, the biggest success of the Trump Presidency has been the economy. The left will never give him credit, but at least the “reformacons” on the right who derided deregulation and corporate tax cuts as an out-of-date agenda should admit how wrong they were. Had Mr. Trump taken their advice, we wouldn’t be seeing a growth rebound that is lifting wages for everyone.

    Appeared in the April 27, 2019, print edition.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tide-keeps-rising-11556319160?mod=hp_opin_pos1
     
  14. adoo

    adoo Member

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    thank obama for doing the HEAVY LIFTING reviving the US economy from the cratering caused by GWB's incompetence.

    Obama inherited a shrinking economy that was bankrupt, w consecutive months of job loss > 100K;
    he then help to create positive job growth for ~ 72 consecutive months, as well as positive GDP growth.​

    Trump inherited this near-godilocks situation, relative to what Obama had inherited from W
     
  15. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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    Solid article that does a good job explaining the current state of the economy. I do take issue with the part I bolded; while the economy has risen to heights not seen since the late 90s, wages have stagnated at 2009 levels. March job reports only showed a 4 cent increase to wages after a 10 cent increase the previous job report. These increases are far below what increases should be in this type of economy and could be a huge reason why Trump isn’t seeing an economic boost to his popularity.

    Basically, businesses are keeping their profit margins high and not passing that on to workers. Helps juice the stock market and allows the rich to get richer. However, we already have an out of control wealth gap in this country and Trump, while boosting the economy, isn’t fixing the gap...only worsening it.
     
  16. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    What is the decrease in wages you are referring to?
     
  17. Aleron

    Aleron Member

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    10%? are you sure you've got that right? that number seems....unbelievably high.
     
  18. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I never said wages declined.
     
  19. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    What are saying about wages as they relate to earnings.

    Regardless wages as a percentage of costs differ by industry
     
  20. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    Overall wages as a percentage of profits is declining. Massive increases in profits have failed to "trickle down" to the masses. What is wrong?

    Executive salary skyrocketing
    Share value at an all-time high
    Cash supply at historical record
    Dividends are higher than ever

    Yet workers pay crap still.

    Where is the trickle down?
     

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