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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    trump salty...

     
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  2. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    indirectly yes, and specifically -- the banks which prop up the eu cummission whores. the same banks which helped create the greek crisis by forcing public bailouts of their foolish private sector investments there. for instance deutsche bank, commerzbank, credit agricole, BNP paribas, societe general, RBS, and of course Hypo real estate. all got their losses socialized at the expense of the greek taxpayer. all pushed (along w/ the machinations of goldman) for greece to join the euro to open up that market of fresh meat to dine on. the may 2010 memorandum of understanding from the troika is really what killed greece for good b/c it laid out blueprint for putting the onus of this debt on the greek public, w/ nice stuff like privatizations, deregulation, and of course harsh austerity. at this point those same foreign private banks also began dumping all their greek bonds b/c the writing was on the wall that the greek govt would be made to bear the burden.. and this just exascerbated the crisis even further. like tsipras, papandreou was also a captured traitor useful to the troika. fuking guy didn't even conduct an audit to expose that the bulk of greek public debt was largely odious & illegitimate. he just agreed to the memoranda dictated by the troika. kinda reminds one of may's withdrawal agreement lol
     
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  3. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    we are already a decade into the greek debt crisis and the fuking IMF itself released a report showing the depression there has surpassed even that of the US 1930's. a decade in, their social and economic situation is tragically unreal AND they will still never be able to pay off that debt. they are still guaranteed to default down the road. and we can argue for the next month here back & forth about how severe the intial effect would have been by pulling out of the euro in 2015 and whether the troika would have even allowed tsipras to go ahead with that. but i'll just save everyone else here the (greek) drama :D
     
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  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    From Theresa May's speech in Parliament today:

    "In short, the date of our departure from the EU - and our participation in the European Parliamentary elections - remains a decision for this House."

    They can still get this right. If they do not, then surely heads must roll. Perhaps literally.
     
  5. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    They can only avoid EU elections if they can pass a withdrawal agreement in the next few days. That's 100% not happening. They're going to hold European elections and they'll kick the can down the road for another few months while the Tories debate proposals that the EU will never accept.
     
  6. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    They can also vote to not participate in them. If they do not participate in them, that will void the agreement. Sadly though, what you are suggesting seems to be the more likely course of action at this point.
     
  7. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Until yesterday, it seemed to me that Theresa May had made every effort to shepherd Brexit through an incredibly fraught political process with much stronger forces arrayed against her than she has behind her, especially within the UK Parliament. With her acceptance of this extension, seemingly at this point without any clear resistance to the requirement that the UK participate in the EU Parliamentary elections on May 23, that sadly seems to no longer be the case.

    If she fails to use every tool and power available to her to make sure that the UK does not participate in these elections, then she must surely go. A number of Tory MP's effectively called for her resignation today in Parliament. I am still hopeful that she or the Tory party will take action to make sure these elections are not held in the UK. But her comments to Parliament today did not include any cause for encouragement on this score that I saw.
     
  8. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    So, is there a way for the Tories to get rid of Theresa May?

    It appears that there is, as the conclusion of this session of Parliament ends next month and a review of the viability of her government. From the UK Guardian:

    There is no formal process available to Conservative MPs if they want to remove Theresa May as leader in the immediate future because under party rules a new no confidence vote is not allowed until December. But Francis Elliott, the Times’ political editor, argues that with a new Queen’s speech due in the spring, May does face an existential threat. Here is an extract from his Times article (paywall).

    The end of the parliamentary session also triggers a review of the Conservative government’s confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, which was struck after the 2017 snap election in which the Tories lost their overall majority. The deal states that both parties are required to review its “aims, principles and implementation”.

    The break clause was one reason why Mrs May decided to announce that the parliamentary session would last for two years, rather than the usual one year, in June 2017.

    In the present climate, with the DUP implacably opposed to the Brexit deal as it stands, it is all but impossible to see the party issuing another guarantee to support a government led by Mrs May. The ability to win a Commons vote approving a Queen’s Speech is a necessary condition for a viable government, but without a formal deal with the DUP Mrs May could not be certain it would pass.
     
  9. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    All of the major parties have put out recruitment calls for EU elections. Regardless of what the PM says, they're going to happen. Interestingly, the polling shows UKIP's vote share collapsing from the last go around with Labour (rather than the Tories) becoming the beneficiary.

    This will ironically strengthen the center-left ruling coalition (Labour sits with the Socialist Alliance which is part of the ruling coalition while the Tories and UKIP sit with Euro-skeptic opposition alliances).

    I suspect a vote of no confidence would fail even if the DUP pulled out of their agreement (which they wont). The DUP will almost certainly lose seats in a new election so they have no interest in calling for a new election. Change UK has the same problem. Most of them will lose if they stand as independents or as Change UK. So they have a vested interest in keeping the government as well.

    The electoral outlook in parliament is screwed up right now. Too many MPs are vulnerable so they have no incentive to vote out the government (even if Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems vote against the government).
     
    #1229 geeimsobored, Apr 11, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2019
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  10. dmoneybangbang

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    As an American Greek, they don’t pay their taxes but they want generous social programs. Terrible combination.

    Same thing with Italy but Italy actually has a somewhat large and diverse economy.
     
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  11. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    t.......i............c t......................o.............................c
     
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  12. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    yeah this is true for both countries. greece i can attest to personally as well since i had a villa on paros for many years. but in both countries even if 100% of taxes were efficiently recovered (both corporate and personal) those mountains of debt would still never get paid off anyways. absent of real growth they're just stuck in quicksand. joining the eurozone was a curse from the start b/c neither country met the criteria. but the major banks and german companies still pushed for it to open up markets to sell to finally free of currency risk. and after these southern economies joined, their past debt essentially doubled in intl value as the euro currency doubled into 2008. had they stayed in lira/drachma their debt levels would not have skyrocketed in this fashion. the one very smart decision GB made was to stay out of the euro, thanks to maggie thatcher in particular
     
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  13. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    Brexit-related :D

     
  14. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Agreed!
    I'm willing to make a bet that the left parties will get an unprecented rise in votes for this MEP elections.
    Why did UKIP did so well while they couldn't get even an MP in the regular elections?
    It was because only the extremists right wingers bothered to go vote for the EU.
    But right now the Remainers are seeing the EU elections as possibly their last chance to show their will to stay.
    BUT if Corbyn keep insisting in the next month not to back a new referendum, a lot of the Labour voters will switch to Green and Lib Dem.

    As for the DUP? It is completely laughable from this Time journalist to say that they will dare to fell the government.:D

    What awaits them is a surefire catastrophe in next GE and not to mention even PRISON. They have been investgated for money laundering from a Saudi prince.
     
  15. malakas

    malakas Member

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    True. One of the good thing of the economic crisis is the ongoing catharsis of corruption in the average citizen level. Not out of goodwill or repetance of course but due to measures to counter tax evation and bribings.
    However it is oxymoronic that with the overproportioned taxes it is outright impossible for the middle class to be able to pay their taxes and not be in risk of falling into poverty so people just don't pay anymore and just owe. Δανεικά κι αγύριστα. An average middle class person has to pay more than 40% in taxes of their income.
     
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  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Come to think of it I am not sure if Change UK (What a horrible name for a party btw) has interest in keeping the government. In front of the failure of the traditional two parties there is an unprecented chance to establish themselves as a great alternative options for the moderate centrists. There is no better chance for them and they will have to strike while the iron is hot.
    I read that many Labour council members have resigned or rumoured to do so and join them.
     
  17. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    Did the Brexit Bros sign a billion year contract with Scientology?
     
  18. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    Its true but
    I dont think they'll fare well. FPTP doesn't exactly make it easy for them. They'll end up like the Lib Dems where they don't quite have a real base to count on (except the Lib Dems at least have a few established constituencies). They have no money and no natural constituency.

    The Lib Dems have been trying to position themselves as the pro-EU party since the referendum and have found no natural constituency (beyond their existing tiny base). Change UK will fare no better. Everyone thought Brexit would cause a major party shift but the last election showed that everyone in England continued to stick with the Tories and Labour. What you might see is Change UK splitting enough of the vote to cause Labour or the Tories to win ridings that they normally wouldn't win. But I really doubt Change UK will come close to their current caucus. They'll be a marginal rump like the Liberal Democrats.
     
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  19. malakas

    malakas Member

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    I read a lot of remainers being dissatisfied with the Lib Dems because their second in command and some other MPs left the party after the GE to become independent and then voted against a second referendum. They are portrayed to be somewhat unreliable.

    Do you think that even with the FPTP if Corbyn continues to ignore and disregard half if not more of his party base and goes for Brexit without a referendum, people will still vote for them? It's not like Corbyn can be ousted any time soon.
    And he has been soo petty and small minded and extremely stubborn.
    Some MPs of Change UK like Anna Soubry have been very instrumental in parliament and people are watching.

    Then there is the moderate conservative voters who have traditionally voted for Tories. If the new Tory leader is someone from the ERG, there is bound to be a lot of bleeding to more left parties. I think some of them are more likely to vote for someone else and new than Corbyn.

    In the end all the damage to the Tories has been self inflicted. Labour has done nothing to them by itself.

    I can't understand how someone like Corbyn with this character and his extreme views became the leader of Labour. With May at least there was some logic behind at that time. however flawed it showed to be (as proved by the Windrush scandal).

    There is still plenty of time for Corbyn to alienate and dissapoint many Labour voters.
    I know it seems impossible after all these centuries for two party politics to end but there is no better time than now.
     
  20. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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