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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    excuses...
     
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  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The Tories are apparently engaging in 'Sensible and pragmatic planning' for a general election. This makes sense, as even Theresa May has publicly discussed her departure on several occasions:

    Conservative Party engaged in 'sensible and pragmatic' planning for snap election, deputy chairman admits


    The Conservatives are engaged in “sensible and pragmatic planning” for a snap election, the party’s deputy chairman has admitted, as Labour mulls a second confidence motion in the Government. James Cleverly said that while the Tories were “not planning for a general election”, the party was nevertheless preparing for a snap poll in case Theresa May was forced to go to the country early.

    It comes after ministers and senior MPs told The Sunday Telegraph that the party would be devastated at the polls, with many voicing concern that Mrs May could attempt to stay on as Prime Minister.​

    Here is another article at the Daily Express that cites a poll that shows Labour and Jeremy Corbyn in the lead over the Conservatives.Corbyn

    WARNING: Labour edge closer to power as SHOCK poll shows clear five-point lead

    Public support for Labour has soared after the Tory party’s recent internal conflicts amid the Brexit debate, according to a Mail on Sunday-commissioned poll. Labour currently has the most public support at 41 percent while the Tories trail behind on 36 percent. If this was the result of the election, Labour would win 307 seats, while the Tories would claim just 264. Although the Labour leader would be 19 seats short of a majority, it could see him enter Downing Street if he was able to coax a deal out of the Scottish National Party (SNP).​

    These stories are all running in the conservative oriented UK press (Telegraph & Express, just to name two). What will the effect of these stories be? Probably to help unify the Tories in support of the Theresa May government so that they realize that now is not a good time to go wobbly.

    There will be another general election in the UK obviously. However, the Tories do not need to stand for one under the law until 2022 and Theresa May cannot be challenged within her party until next January, as a result of a no confidence motion within the party having failed earlier this year.

    However, once Brexit is achieved, it appears that she is already planning to leave, almost certainly by sometime this summer, if not before. And that could well require a general election, which the Tories would be smart to plan for.
     
  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    On the subject of snap elections, the left leaning UK Guardian reports that Tories of all stripes are poised to block any effort to call a snap election, which apparently requires 2/3 support in Parliament.

    Furious Tory MPs tell May: we’ll block snap Brexit election

    Conservative MPs from across the party are threatening to vote down any attempt by Theresa May to lead them into a snap election, warning it would split the Tories and exacerbate the Brexit crisis.

    The threat of an election immediately angered both pro-Brexit and pro-Remain MPs. May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure one, meaning a serious rebellion by Tories could block it. May would then be forced to secure an election by backing a no-confidence vote in her own government, which only requires a simple majority of MPs.

    Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan said: “If we have a general election before Brexit is resolved, it will only make things worse.”​

    So for those putting their hopes in the Tory government crashing and general elections being called within the next two weeks as the "reason" for an extension request to the EU, this does not look like it will have adequate support either.

    12 days to go. Tick tock.
     
  4. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Sigh.
    So what? Don't you know that the opposition can put forward as many no confidence motions as they want?
    Then they will have to stand for an election under the law. Within two weeks.

    Seriously how can you read the same article as everyone else and come to the opposite conclusion?
    Is it because you don't know the inner workings or is it because you are biased?

    They want to block GE because the wannabe new leaders are all vastly unpopular especially the ERGs who sold their soul in the last MV.
    But no deal brexit is now NOT an option.

    If May doesnt call GE it means she will have to swallow her pride and accept a soft customs union Brexit. IF they Parliament manages to agree on it today.

    IF they don't agree today, then there can only be general elections. Very likely Corbyn will call the no confidence motion right there or the next day.
    It's a deadend.

    May is not only a Leader in Name Only but now she is even't allowed to sacrifice herself. She is really worthless. Not even her political death counts for one cent anymore!

    She is pitiful but no compassion from me because she had it all coming.

    She wanted to leave her legacy and name in history books, congrats she has achieved that! As the worst Prime Minister of the last two centuries.
     
  5. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It is not the same.
    I am not sure but I doubt that the average American had 2-3 decades of brainwashing that the Mexicans are to blame for everything bad in the country?
    But the Brits had that brainwashing.
    For ages the Tories used the EU as the easy scapegoat for everything wrong.
    Even the most avid Europhile citizens were just a little bit warmer than apathy.
    They always were saying "we are not real europeans".


    IF May had tried from the beginning to implement a soft Brexit she would have succeeded by now and if not the majority a significant part of the population would be in favour.

    But the referendum had only two choices remain and leave. Those who voted leave thought from the start it would be a Norway style Brexit not a no deal Brexit.
    In the long term, as the lies and despicable propaganda from the Leave campaign would be coming to light, even a soft Brexit would likely become unpopular with the majority however it would be able to pass through.
    The reason for her failure wasn't Brexit on itself but the way she tried to implement it. She went to one of the most extreme ways with many red lines.

    That's why the Brexit referendum has done a brilliant job in creating EU fans in Britain when they didn't exist at all in the first place.

    1 million people marching through the street with EU blue flags? It would be a far fetched fantasy 4 years ago and everyone would laugh at your face if you said it.
     
  6. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Don't you think that is a bit troubling? When people are willing to give up their nationstate to a super nation so easily and willingly because of fear? There is your brainwashed public.
     
  7. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Absolutely I am against a superstate.
    The Scotts who were lied to and intimidated should regain their nationstate and leave the UK superstate. Same with the Northern Irish.
    Since only England wants to leave the EU the other nations should go their own way without being bullied and brainwashed.
     
  8. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Scotland willingly voted to stay in the UK so tough luck I suppose. Votes must be honored.
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    After being bullied that independence means they will be thrown out of the EU.
    Now that they will be dragged out against their will anyway and the promises of the English are proven lies, time to hold a second referendum.
     
  10. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Member

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    Why not a third and fourth referendum?
     
  11. dmoneybangbang

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    Why couldn’t Brexiters get their act together to avoid having another referendum? Incompetence has consequences.

    I get your fear though, that the will of the people has changed and would prefer to stay after this debacle.
     
  12. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Here is an excellent speech by AfD co-leader speech Alice Weidel on Brexit in the Bundestag (German Parliament). Her perspectives on EU and German leadership regarding Brexit, and also the warnings that she offers, are right on the money.

     
  13. Major

    Major Member

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    The first referendum was in 1975 and had a far more decisive outcome. You seem to only want to accept the results of of the 2nd referendum in 2016. Why is that? Why two and only two referendums, and only the 2nd matters?
     
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  14. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    Her warnings are "right"... or "extremist far right"?
     
  15. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Her warnings are insightful, accurate and sensible. If you think otherwise, feel free to specify what part of her comments you disagree with - if you can.
     
  16. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    And Scotland willingly voted to stay in the EU.

    How does the jibe with your votes must be honored mantra?
     
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  17. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    Am I correct... she is an extreme right wing politician in Germany? Why does it seem the people favoring Brexit are right wing politicians?
     
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  18. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    I do not know her, but of course we all have to keep in mind the dishonesty and trustworthiness of the people who try to shout down people who they disagree with, with these sorts of recriminations, recriminations that are routinely without basis in fact. The trustworthiness and the unreliability of these people is in truth so extreme that it is hard to exaggerate, as was most recently illustrated by their despicable behavior over the last 2+ years with regards to their fabricated Russia/Trump conspiracy scam.
     
  19. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    If the Scottish economy tanks because of a disaster Brexit, get ready for a second Scottish independence referendum. EU membership (and control of Scottish oil) will be major selling points for any new referendum. Add to that, the growing pressure for a referendum for NI to leave the UK and join Ireland because of the return of a hard border.

    It's amazing that the UK, which is supposedly a union of four equal nations, didn't account for the fact that each nation might vote differently. Two of the four nations of the UK voted to remain and two voted to leave. In a normal federal system, the discussion ends there. Brexit is essentially a constitutional change and should have a higher threshold then a simple majority vote if the UK.

    I think the cracks of the UK system of government have really been revealed through this process. Makes me glad to have the US constitution. For all its faults, the US Constitution at least creates a framework of rules to follow. The essentially unlimited authority of the UK parliament is pretty crazy by comparison. And at some point, the UK loses its ability to keep smaller nations happy if such a system doesn't guarantee some sort of protection of their interests.
     
    #1039 geeimsobored, Apr 1, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
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  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Speaker Bercow approves 4 motions for tonight's Parliamentary takeover agenda, round #2.

    Indicative votes WILL take place tonight - Bercow chooses FOUR options to be voted on

    MPs have voted 322 to 277 - a majority of 45 - to hold indicative votes on alternative Brexit options. Commons Speaker John Bercow has selected four options for the ballot paper for indicative votes by MPs. The motions are:

    C - Customs union - Ken Clarke - Any withdrawal agreement and political declaration must include at least a customs union with the EU.
    D - Common market 2.0 - Nick Boles - Norway-style relationship with the EU, including membership of the EFTA, single market and a customs union.
    E - Confirmatory Public vote - Peter Kyle - Any withdrawal agreement must be put to the people in a confirmatory second referendum.
    G - Parliamentary supremacy - Joanna Cherry - If a deal has not been agreed, and MPs have rejected leaving without a deal, Article 50 must be revoked.​

    The first one is the one that came closest to passing last Wednesday. It is being brought up again, word for word. Even if it were to pass, it would have no effect on whether the UK leaves on April 12, 2019 with no deal or not, as it is a proposal that pertains to the trade negotiations that would occur after Brexit. Nevertheless, it is a bad proposal and it should fail, yet again. But we will see.

    None of the other motions appear to have any plausible chance of passing, as far as I can tell.
     

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