What's the difference in our defense this year?

I dunno how much he has left in the tank, but who would be opposed to bringing back Ariza at the league minimum next year? He can be our locker room enforcer and keep the young bucks in check.

 

I know. I'm just curious since this point was brought up. What is more important in terms of winning in general?

It's kind of like asking, which is more important, defense or offense. Of course you always want to be good at both. But if there is some trade off involved, what should be the priority?

 

OK, just wanted to clarify whether you were able to cite others, because that data/post of yours was a response to the story where Spurs/Pops was reevaluating the importance of DREB, to possible learn to devalue it from Celtics success ... who were very good, but on the juggernaut Miami Big Three side of the draw, at the time.

I defintiely remember that article. When you study the Spurs (along with that data analysis of that article), the truth is, they were always good at both. They always get at the ball.

I think the idea of that article is contesting shots (include hounding post player and perimeter players prior to shot) is of vital importance, and it just naturally leads to good defense and inevitable turnovers....and contesting shots can hurt your DREB%...not necessarily a lot, but enough to find many great defensive teams who are good at both...and some who aren't great at DREB%.

Then Indiania's top ranked defense and OKCs are anomalies over last two years, too. They are completely flipped so they are Top Tier in DRtg with significantly better TOV% than DREB%. So was several top defensive teams of Boston/Rivers era.

This is why I don't think we can claim that "Twice" number, when arguably the best defense in a historical dynasty run is the complete opposite, and Pops' team (JVG, Sloan, Riley) are usually good at both equally. Dynasty's aren't anomaly, unless we really care about the lower half DRtg teams.

I'd tend to say don't let the lower third of the DRtg team contribute to analysis, because if the top teams aren't twice, then who cares. I'd rerun the data to only include the teams who contend (maybe the 8-10 best each yr). There's too many great teams who are good at both, and teams who are opposite (like GSW, recent OKC, Ind and Boston teams in that historical data thread you referenced) -- for a twice number to pop out,

 

I don't share this fascination with minor analytics. I just said there are two many good teams who are balanced, and enough teams who are opposites for slight math results to be a driving factor here.

But, just to play along, when it comes to defense, I'd run those numbers around only the Top 10 contenders. Don't let the shitty teams contribute to that analysis.

The point made in the article referenced in the OP is contesting shots is the clear winner when it comes to top defenses. That's not in the boxscore, so we are left with how would active defenses who constantly hound the ball play out in secondary stats.

How do you think contesting shots (to include the hounding of a post player and dribbler prior to shooting) would play out in terms of TOV% and DREB%? Do you think it matters to schemes if we find that one is slightly higher than the other, or is it just a curiousity for the fun of math?

 

Off the top of my head, FG% seems like a logical proxy metric for contesting shots. It doesn't account for free throws however. Are there similar publicly-reported stats that might get at this?

 

eFG% is a Four Factor stat. But I wouldn't say contesting shots requires a FGA, just because NBA Stats website defines Shot Contesting stats as such. Coaches would prefer the shot never even get off.

Thus, contesting the ability for the offense to get off good shots is the true meaning of Contesting Shots, so by that definition, it would include the following turnovers:

• 24-second clock (a coaching favorite),
• charges often prevent shots...like blocks do ... and are turnovers too...but, unlike Blocks, they also wipe out the FGA from boxscore.
  
• any strips of the ball while making a move to shoot or drive (e.g., Harden's low post strips)
• passing turnovers from stopping your dribble with nowhere to go or shoot
• strips from double teams (player is attacked before he can shoot)
• etc...

 

Not sure about hounding the ball and TOV%. But I know contesting shot is more important than defensive rebounding. This is one thing that is somewhat of a trade off. We see guys like Love and Westbrook stay off their man just so they can get to the defensive rebound. That's just bad defense.

I do have curiosity for the fun of math though. Someone posted in another thread Morey's answer to the question whether fouling when up 3 points with 24 seconds left would yield better odds for winning. Morey said that fouling had a slightly higher advantage but not significant enough and it depends on perfect execution. That kind of things doesn't really matter much but they are just fun math for me.