The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

I was not referring to having elections at another time. If they try to extend the exit date past June 30, the UK will need to participate in the elections at the usual time. What I was trying to say was that the Parliament will need to recognize that they are effectively choosing to hold these elections and to continue the UK's membership in the EU if and when they try to extend the Brexit date to some point beyond the end of June.

Of course in that case there would be some lying liars that would try to spin it and shift responsibility, implausibly insisting that they are doing no such thing. But the people will see it as the open betrayal of the original referendum that it obviously is. As a result, the campaign for the EU Parliament that would then take place between now and May 23-26, 2019 would be run with that as the central issue, and the treacherous slimebag MPs who voted to support this know that they will targeted and called out openly and very publicly as the vile disgusting traitors to their constituents that they in fact are.

Do I really need to tell you that these MP's know this already and do not consider this to be a very appealing prospect for them? Also, as if that were not enough, they know that they can also look forward to campaigns to see them deselected for the next general election, which as you have mentioned several times, could very well be coming up soon. Several of these deselection efforts are already underway and if the UK Parliament were to approve an extension beyond June 30 which results in EU Parliamentary elections needing to be held, then there will be quite a few more.

This is the political landscape that most of these MP's currently face and it is why the UK Parliament is likely to be reluctant to actually pass a motion to extend the exit date beyond June 30, 2019.

 

Oh, good grief. It looks like Theresa May is going to try turning on the female waterworks in Brussels this Thursday and Friday. Sorry, fellas, but this is embarrassing:

BREXIT DISASTER: May admits UK now 'in CRISIS' as she pleads for EU's help

THERESA May admitted the UK has plunged into a “constitutional crisis” after John Bercow’s astonishing intervention in the Brexit process, and revealed she will issue a desperate plea to Donald Tusk regarding an extension to Article 50.​

First of all, it needs to be repeated that the third vote on this deal was shaping up for yet another thrashing before Bercow's ruling on this. Don't get me wrong, Bercow has behaved at times in ways that raise serious questions about his objectivity on this topic, but it does not appear to me that this is not one of those instances.

What would the difference be if Bercow had allowed this vote and then it had failed spectacularly again? We would be in exactly the same place that we are now, except that Theresa May would have to come up with a different line of blubbering to present to the EU leaders when presenting her explanation for an extension request.

This is not a good look for Theresa May or the UK government right now. Someone needs to tell her to please stop it.

 

The British public appears to be ready for a no deal Brexit, according to this latest poll:

No deal is better than Brexit delay, say voters – exclusive Telegraph poll

Nearly half of the British public is confident that the UK will ultimately thrive if it leaves the EU without a deal, according to a new poll.

The exclusive ComRes survey for The Daily Telegraph found that 46 per cent of adults think leaving without a deal would “briefly cause some uncertainty but ultimately work out OK”, compared with 40 per cent who support extending Article 50.​

 

Actually, here is the exact wording of the extension motion from the UK Parliament website:

That this House:

(1) notes the resolutions of the House of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the Government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3);

(2) agrees that, if the House has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the Government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and

(3) notes that, if the House has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European Council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019.​

As you can see, there is nothing in this motion authorizing a longer extension, or even authorizing the Prime Minister to seek a longer extension. Of course if she wants to come back and propose a long extension after the conclusion of the Brussels summit later this week, that will require Parliamentary approval and it will also require Parliament to effectively endorse taking part in the EU Parliamentary elections, which will be correctly interpreted by the people as the UK Parliament effectively deciding to revoke Brexit. They and you can try to pretend that these events are consequentially related, but only someone who is an imbecile will even possibly believe that.

If the EU elections are held in the UK, the UK Parliament will be held accountable and the people will care about that very much. I will be quite surprised if the UK Parliament passes anything which causes these elections to be held, but time will tell. If they do, the Brexit supporters will dominate at the polls and the entire campaign will focus on the howls of treachery directed at MP's who betrayed their constituents.

And then there will also be the moves to deselect these MP's for the next general election, the prospect of which will serve as a powerful disincentive to MP's who are considering voting in this way.

 

No, it does not say they can ask for an extension beyond June 30, 2019. Try reading it again. Here is the relevant section:

(3) notes that, if the House has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European Council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019.​

It offers the observation that IF the UK Parliament had not passed the deal prior to the discussion of a possible extension with EU leaders at the Brussels summit, any extension beyond June 30 would require the UK to participate in EU Parliamentary elections. A point that I have repeatedly offered and that you have repeatedly contended, by the way. But it does not authorize (or unauthorize) any extension request beyond June 30, 2019.

However, section 2 of the motion does clearly authorize the proposal of an extension request lasting until June 30, 2019, but only under the condition that the 3rd meaningful vote passed, which of course did not happen.

There really is no clear proposal on the table at all right now, aside from the vague idea of requesting an extension for no discernible reason, which the EU leaders have consistently insisted was not supportable by them (they could be lying about this). Or of course leaving the EU with no deal, which is the current default position under UK law.

Also, ANY extension proposal that Theresa May brings back will have to be voted on by Parliament, since the 3rd meaningful vote was never even held, not to mention that it was never passed.

 

Well, time will tell. If she brings back an extension proposal agreed to by the EU, Parliament will debate it and vote on it. Watch and see.

 

We have been through all of this repeatedly now. The second referendum idea has already been voted down, Theresa May's deal was the softer Brexit and that was voted down twice (there is no other proposal in the public domain to replace it) and the suggestion of a general election is not going to be considered a reason for offering an extension, as that is just normal domestic politics.

 

The vote on no deal under any circumstances was not binding. I did provide articles for that at the time.

As far as the extension requiring a vote by Parliament, the March 29, 2019 date is still the default Brexit date and it is the UK Law of the land. For that to be changed, Parliament will have to vote to change it. They will also have to very quickly hold a number of other votes as well, changing the dates on the legal handover of laws to the UK, which currently included adopting a number of EU laws and processes as their own until the Parliament can formally debate and pass laws to establish institutions in the UK to take those responsibilities over.

You will not need an article about this. You will see the UK Parliament voting on these matters, if they are even proposed. That is how you will know.

 

There was some talk last week about Nigel Farage lobbying the heads of state of the EU27 to veto any extension proposal put to them by the UK. Well, it looks like he is not the only one, as a number of backbench Tory MP's have apparently been busy doing the same thing.

Eurosceptic Tories use covert talks to call on EU countries to veto Brexit extension

Backbench Eurosceptic Tory MPs have made a behind-the-scenes bid to persuade European Union leaders to veto any delay to Brexit at this week's Brussels summit. The undercover diplomatic initiative has been led by Tory MPs Daniel Kawczynski, Craig Mackinlay and former Cabinet minister Owen Paterson.

The talks have been discussed at meetings of the European Research Group of around 60 hardline Conservative MPs. The MPs were hoping that one of the EU's 27 remaining member states could veto Britain's expected request to an extension to Article 50 to make it more likely that the UK leaves the EU at the end of next week.​

So, the reserves have arrived and all the stops are being pulled on both sides. It increasingly looks like this is going to go down here, one way or another, over the next ten days.

Get your parachutes on tight and smoke em if you got'em. The B-Day landings are upon us. It is go-time.