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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Speaker Bercow has approved an amendment today that would approve a second referendum:

    BREXIT SHOCK: MPs to vote TONIGHT on giving public second referendum

    The second referendum amendment would order Theresa May to request an Article 50 extension “for the purposes of legislating for and conducting a public vote in which the people of the United Kingdom may give their consent" on whether to leave the European Union with a deal or remain in the bloc.

    The Wollaston amendment is supported by some Labour MPs, the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and others in the Independent Group. However the amendment is not expected to pass unless Jeremy Corbyn decides to endorse it or dozens of Conservative MPs rebel.​

    So it does not appear this will pass.

    While they are at it, they also should vote on an amendment to revoke Article 50 and Brexit, which would include provisions for holding elections to continue to participate in the UK Parliament. Then they will have voted on every plausible alternative. This is not likely to pass either, however. But they should vote on it, just so that there will be no options that have not been properly debated and voted on.
     
  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The Sarah Wollaston amendment attempting to force a second Brexit referendum has been rejected by a majority of 249 votes.

    Ayes to the right - 85
    Noes to the left - 334

    That is a much bigger failure than Theresa May's deal ever experienced, for the record. All of the other amendments also failed to pass.

    On the main motion to request an extension of the Article 50 Brexit day from the EU until June 30, 2019:

    Ayes to the right - 412
    Noes to the left - 202

    The motion to request a three month extension is agreed to. However, it is not clear what the reason for the request will be at this point, other than just to kick the can down the road a bit further. So there is some question about how the EU will respond to this.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...rexit-delay-vote-theresa-may-house-of-commons
     
  3. dmoneybangbang

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    Populism is good at causing chaos but not good at producing viable legislation.

    The silence is deafening from the lack of leadership from the original Brexiters
     
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  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    15 days to go. Tick tock.
     
  5. dmoneybangbang

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    And they’re essentially back to where they started. What a joke, the U.K. deserves the hardships it voluntarily choose to go through.
     
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  6. Major

    Major Member

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    Technically true, but really, it's just because all the major players in the movement asked people not to vote for it right now, so Labour and others abstained (the reason for the low vote total). To make it a reality, though, they'd still have work to do getting that 334 number down to around 300-310. I'm not exactly sure *why* they were opposed to voting on it today or what their plan is - it looks like there's maybe a 30-50% chance May can get her deal through next week on a 3rd try. If so, that would be the end of it. If not, I guess the People's Vote people want to push things to the brink and make this the only choice? Not really sure.
     
  7. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Theresa May is now scheduled to request the EU to request an extension next Thursday and Friday (7 days to go) at the Brussels summit. The EU will presumably deliberate over the weekend and hopefully pass something on Monday or Tuesday of the following week (3 days to go).

    MPs vote for EXTENSION to Article 50 - but will EU allow it?

    The Prime Minister must now ask the 27 remaining EU member states for a delay to Brexit beyond March 29 at next week’s Brussels summit.​

    If the EU says no (All 27 countries fail to agree unanimously), there really will not be any more time to dither around with proposals that will not pass. The UK in that situation will almost certainly be leaving the EU on March 29, 2019 with no deal.
     
  8. malakas

    malakas Member

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    the DUP has indicated it is ready to agree to May's deal but her deal can't be put on vote again in the same session.
    So now Tusk has been going around saying that the extension should be a long one to spook the hard Brexiters to help May's deal get through.

    It seems like the road has opened for May's deal to be approved after the extension is granted.
    They supposedly have found a far fetched legal way to get out of the backstop if necessary using the Vienna convention though since that would break a UN treaty it seems just like excuses to me.
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    yeah 39 BN who wants them now, when they will get even more to grant the UK an extension they are desperate for.
     
  10. pirc1

    pirc1 Member

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    Hopefully EU will reject the extension and let the BREXIT take its natural course, so we can all see where it leads, I am very interested in the results.
     
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  11. Major

    Major Member

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    Your interest in the results is a bit less important than the significant damage it would do to real peoples' lives over there. The UK citizens aren't a bunch of human guinea pigs.
     
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  12. pirc1

    pirc1 Member

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    They obviously choose to be, at least a very significant portion of them did.
     
  13. malakas

    malakas Member

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    now?
    The DUP and some of the ERG are saying that they will agree with May's deal.
    Now it's certain that the extension will be approved because it seems that not even June will be needed.
     
  14. malakas

    malakas Member

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    May is right now as we speak, attempting to bribe the DUP to vote for her deal.
    Her plan is:
    Next Tuesday her deal up for vote for a 3rd time.
    If it passes then ask for a small extension for time.
    If it doesn't pass ask for a long extension and the UK participates EU parliament elections in May.

    She needs to convince 75 MPs from now till next Tuesday but if the DUP agrees, it can lead to a domino with more of hard brexiters relenting in fear of the propsect of a long postponement.

    I think that she will be able to pass it, this time.
     
  15. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    So now that all of the votes have been completed, it seems to me that we are likely in for a full week of B.S. stories that cannot be trusted, citing quotes that are all about posturing in advance of the UK's extension request.

    Theresa May is queuing up a third vote on "the deal," but how could the MP's possibly vote for it now that they have already voted down the same exact bill twice in the last six months? Surely they will not. I do not believe that Theresa May believes they will either. Instead, she has to have a "reason" to focus everyone's attention on in advance of the Brussels Summit on Thursday and Friday of next week, as the EU leaders have consistently insisted they will not consider an extension request that does not have a functional reason for the request. Even though another vote on this deal is not very plausible, it is the most plausible explanation available - aside from the real one.

    The real reason for an extension is to provide the UK with a few more months to wrap up interim trade arrangements with countries that have existing arrangements with the EU but not with the UK, in advance of leaving with no deal. Of course after the vote on Wednesday that insisted the UK was opposed to leaving with no deal "under any circumstances," she cannot come out and say this publicly. But this is where this appears to be going.

    Will the EU provide the UK with three months to iron out these interim arrangements? Time will tell. But I suspect that for a sufficiently large extortion payment, they probably will.

    Meanwhile, over the next seven days, we are likely to be treated by a lot of bellicose posturing by EU officials and probably a lesser amount by the UK crowd. But none of that can be taken seriously, as it is all manipulative posturing for the extension talk negotiations. Not unless we hear an unequivocal announcement from one of the EU27 heads of state insisting they will certainly oppose the extension request, we will need to just be patient and wait for a more definitive announcement, probably next Friday.
     
  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Yeah that's your opinion. There are many reasons why some will have changed their mind.
    The DUP will get $ aka bribed and is blackmailig for reassurances for the power of the N.I parliament. (when they finally manage to open it).
    Some ERG hard brexiters are scared that an extension now will lead to a soft Brexit aka custom union that Labour is already planning to implement.
    Many Torry MPs are afraid it will lead to a general election that they will lose by a LOT.

    Maybe she won't get all the votes, but if the DUP finally bites, then it's a real possibiity.
    Only after the 3rd vote will May go and ask for the extension anyway, the length of which will be depending on the result.
    In any case they will pay money for it as compensation.
     
  17. Major

    Major Member

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    LOL no.

    Your lack of understanding of both economics and politics is mindboggling. How about this - if the UK leaves with no deal, you stop posting in D&D forever. If they do, I will.
     
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  18. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    [​IMG]
     
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  19. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    I hope you are not in such an extreme case of denial that you are still holding out hope for a second referendum, even after the vote on that question in Parliament went down in flames to defeat on Thursday by a breathtaking 249 vote margin.

    Please tell me you are not still clinging desperately to the charred remains of a second referendum fantasy. Surely you aren't. Are you?
     
  20. Buck Turgidson

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    I'm in.

    What sort of odds do I have to give here?
     
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