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Catching the Denver Nuggets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Spacemoth, Mar 6, 2019.

  1. jcmoon

    jcmoon Member

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    We absolutely have to beat the 76ers next. If we can pull that one off, i think we can win the rest and go 10-0.
     
  2. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    Why are you cutting it off at 10?

    Denver has road games against Us, Golden St.2x, Utah, Portland, OKC, Boston and Indiana. The will be underdogs in all of them. If they don't lose 8 games the rest of the way I will be surprised. You are overrating road Denver.

    The bigger question is us staying focused (and healthy) and dominating our soft schedule like we should, Denver will do their part.
     
  3. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Certainly possible if the momentum carries on with Faried and Shumpert joining the bench.

    Remaining opponents strength:
    HOU vs .481 + 10 Homes Games Remaining
    DEN vs .537 + 8 Home Games Remaining
    OKC vs .577 + 10 Home Games Remaining

    We have it easier than both those teams plus we are adding Shumpert and Faried. The primary additions for the other 2 are Markieff to OKC and Isaiah Thomas finally healthy.

    I do genuinely wonder if it's worth it though. You know they will burn Harden/CP3 out doing it, and there is no difference shuffling two of the 3 rounds since we will face the Warriors without homecourt advantage anyway. If anything, it might be better to face them sooner with less mileage on Paul/Tucker/Harden because we are going to have fatigue problems and Warriors have chemistry problems. Playoff games take a lot out of you, we can deal with anyone else in the Finals if we have the confidence from beating the Warriors in Round 2.

    I guess what I'm saying is I'm ok with any eventuality that doesn't include bumping up Paul/Harden's minutes and denying them some rest late in the season. I don't see a big difference getting 2nd vs 3rd. I do see a big problem if Harden/Paul have dead legs on a team built on shooting.
     
    #23 Mathloom, Mar 6, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2019
  4. jcmoon

    jcmoon Member

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    it's all health. This team is playing for a lot. Harden is playing for MVP. Gordon, Rivers, Faried, and shumpert are all playing for their next contract or even remaining on the rockets next year. They have a lot to play for and a lot to prove and i believe they will bring their A Game. If we stay healthy, we're getting that second seed. That way, Paul and everyone can shut up all the haters in the league and show everyone who's the boss.
     
  5. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    If the rockets win the next 4 games and the warriors lose one of the next 3 games. The rockets would then only be 3 games back of the Warriors.

    Yes it is possible they can catch any team right now, especially the Nuggets lol
     
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  6. count_dough-ku

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    You really think the Nuggets likely go 8-2 over their next 10? Maybe, but I see them losing at the Warriors(Golden State needs that game for the #1 seed), at Boston, and at Indiana. And then possibly losing at LA tonight(LeBron may be inspired when he passes MJ on the all-time scoring list), at Washington, and at home to the Pacers.

    As for the Rockets, no offense, but they better not go only 8-2 over their next 10. And I'm serious when I say "only". Other than the Warriors game, name me one other opponent in their upcoming 10 games against whom they won't be favored. If they don't go at least 9-1, it better be because they're shorthanded.


    If the Rockets finish with the 2nd seed, there is no way Harden doesn't win MVP. The only argument I hear any media members(many of whom vote on this award) offer for picking Giannis over him is the Bucks' record. Ok, some mention defense, but that's more to offset the insane offensive numbers of Harden. The Rockets' lack of wins is what puts Giannis over the top. Finishing 2nd in the West after that horrific start and in spite of all the injuries would clinch it for Harden.
     
  7. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Member

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    it was arbitrary of course but looking at the remaining 18 games seemed too large of a spread of games too look at with anything happening (injuries, suspensions etc)

    For me as long as the Rockets are healthy and can start forming cohesion with their full lineup for once they will be the toughest team in the NBA to beat outside of the Warriors.
     
  8. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Member

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    Thats why on Paper - I see them losing to GSW and Boston - they have a good chance losing to the Pacers on the road. Denver has been playing not so great of late so that is a big bonus for the Rockets, Thunder and Blazers. But I see them favored to win the other games - which is why I said at the end they have to actually play the games.

    Right now I think 8-2 is being slightly generous towards Houston. They have won 6 straight and getting to be fully healthy which are huge deals. But their tendencies to have just off nights and blown leads (With Boston, Raptors most recently) I just can't trust them the same way I could with last seasons team where a 10 point lead felt fairly safe. Now even a 20 point lead doesn't always seem safe. Yes they SHOULD win on paper all those games outside of the Warriors game, but they've lost to the Pels and Wolves on that list and the Hawks/Hornets really gave the Rockets a run for their money as well recently.

    That fear could easily change over the next 10 games as the team is healthy and roles get more defined and chemistry solidified. Right now there just has been way too many different starting lineup and guys coming off the bench that just results in extreme variances throughout the game.
     
  9. count_dough-ku

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    Oh, no doubt. I said earlier in the thread that the losses to inferior opponents must end. At least at home. Sure, it's not unthinkable that they lose at the Pelicans or the Clippers. New Orleans just won in Utah and LA(the non-LeBron one) is a legit playoff squad. But the Rockets will be favored in those matchups.

    Looking at their remaining schedule, if they're healthy, there is honestly no excuse for the Rockets to lose more than 5 games at the absolute worst.
     
  10. icewill36

    icewill36 Member

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    denver is a really good team.... but IT is seriously throwing them out of wack. he is shooting a ton in a little time and taking away shots from guys who have been great all year like morris. IT gives us a chance, along with good health FINALLY for our key players
     
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  11. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    Why are you leaving out Portland? I think they are more likely to end on top of us than Den or OKC. Look out for Utah as well. As their schedule is the easiest in the West the rest of the year.
     
  12. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Member

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    ELO ratings updated:

    craigELO.JPG

    In this model we're projected to finish with the same record as Denver at 52-30. It's also pretty astonishing that our ELO rating is 2nd in the entire league, only behind the Bucks.
     
  13. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    HCA against Denver may be irrelevant but the 2 seed is not:

    1. Facing a much weaker team in the first round matters. This is a marathon and you don’t want to incur too much damage early on. Championship winners breeze through early rounds. The 1995 Rockets being the only exception I can recall.
    2. Psychologically it really puts us back in position where we were at last year, where we really feel like it’s us and GSW.
    3. Yes, it shouldn’t matter but it does. The 2 seed virtually guarantees in my mind an MVP for Harden.
     
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  14. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    I think ELO loves us because of our quality of wins. Other projection systems look only at our SOS and diffy which undersells us because of our injuries. But in terms of playing up to (and down to) our competition, there isn’t a contender out there besides MIL in 1 game who we haven’t beaten. 3-0 vs GSW is big time.
     
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  15. Vivi

    Vivi Member

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    Yeah, we just need to get in top 3 while staying ahead of most of the Eastern conference teams possible, 2nd or 3rd seed doesn't mean much if Denver is going to be our second round opponent. OKC ending up 4th or 5th would be good too to have them against the Warriors in the second round if they beat Portland.
     
  16. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    For us to catch Denver, we would basically have to go something like 15-3. The only reason I see us being able to make such a major turnaround is because we have a drastically different team than earlier in the season and we haven't been on a decent streak all season which we did several times healthy last season.

    Portland and Utah essentially have not changed except each of them adding a minor scorer off the bench. They've otherwise been the same team for 2 years. I can't imagine they would suddenly go 15-3 given the beginning of the season is much more representative for them than it is for us. Utah for example were never struggling, they just had the most difficult 1st half so it was predictable they'd start slow. They have had an easy schedule for a while now and they are only 6-4 in their last 10.

    Portland is Portland, of course they might go on a run but there isn't any strong evidence to suggest it and they have been mediocre in their last 10 games.

    FWIW we are tied with Portland and their remaining schedule is exactly the same difficulty as ours. Utah are 2.5 games behind us and they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (opponents are .413).
     
  17. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    against DEN it might be advantageous to get the 3rd seed so we can just close them out at home the 4th game :D
     
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  18. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    As long as we don't meet GSW until the WCF, I don't care where we are seeded.
     
  19. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Member

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    You forgot two of the loudest rants, as thin, painful, and worn-down as old sneakers. So I threw them in.
     
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  20. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    If we have to go through OKC and Utah to get to the WCF we might not make it. Those are some bruiser teams, don’t overlook the road leading up to golden state.
     

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