Thanks for the research. I didn't know how to find floater's efficiency. Here's how Harden's 3p% and 2pt% and the frequency of 3pt shots look by quarter: 1Q 41%, 51%, 49% 2Q 41%, 53%, 53% 3Q 34%, 55%, 58% 4Q 33%, 52%, 63% So you can see. He progressively shoots more 3s as the game goes. 68% of his shots are 3s in the 4th quarter as oppose to 49% in the 1st quarter. And he is getting less efficient, while his 2pt shots percentage remains constant. So maybe he should drive more in the second half.
Anything that gets him away from those crunch-time hero-ball end-of-the-shot-clock stepback 3s is fine by me.
The floater all day plus he can get fouled on it. I'm curious what his TS% is on both of those shots.
Surprisingly that small sample is his actual FG% for the year = 52.8% btw: you don't have to count this up. There is a filter for Play Type, when you bring up player box scores. Then you just remove the GameID, and it does the entire year PlayType = Floating Jump Shot (which includes "Driving Floating Jump Shot") 51.4% (57-111) https://stats.nba.com/events/?flag=3&CFID=&CFPARAMS=&PlayerID=201935&TeamID=1610612745&ContextMeasure=FGA&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&RangeType=0&StartPeriod=1&EndPeriod=10&StartRange=0&EndRange=28800§ion=game&sct=plot&sort=SHOT_DISTANCE&dir=1&CF=ACTION_TYPE*E*Floating Jump shot PlayType = Bank Shot version "Driving Floating Bank Shot" 66.7% (8-12) https://stats.nba.com/events/?flag=3&CFID=&CFPARAMS=&PlayerID=201935&TeamID=1610612745&ContextMeasure=FGA&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&RangeType=0&StartPeriod=1&EndPeriod=10&StartRange=0&EndRange=28800§ion=game&sct=plot&sort=SHOT_DISTANCE&dir=1&CF=ACTION_TYPE*E*Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot Btw: you can do a date range in the above links, as it appears he weaponized it after start of season, but in quick check, it appears the % has been pretty consistent all year. Why would you say it's a more efficient play? It can't be, because he never gets fouled on the floater and turns it over more. But in the sense that Harden's drives often have oop options, the entire play might be more efficient. That said, we also know that Harden improved his step back because the defenses can absolutely take away the drive, if they want. So, just matter of taking what defense gives us -- as Harden would prefer to drive -- yet, the step back is the answer to defenses also trying to make him pass to a shooter...ie., make the role players hit their shots. It allows Harden to inject himself into the 3pt shooting, no matter what the defense is. bottomline: I think it is best just to trust that the Superstar player knows best, along with the coaches, and, most often, when he takes many threes, the drive is being heavily defended.
Why do you think that his 3pt% drops off so much in the second half while he also shoots more 3s in the second half? The logical answer is that he is forced to take more contested 3s in the second half, 3pt shots that he otherwise would not take. So maybe defenses adjust in the second half. But then, why don't they "adjust" right at the beginning? Everybody pretty much knows what Harden and our offense like to do.
Never mind what I said earlier about "can he be efficient tho". I remember in the Spurs series they would just back everyone up and clog the passing lanes and dare Harden to take a mid-range/floater (shot sub-40% from midrange that season ) or kick it back out to a role player for a 3, we went with the latter. Unfortunately, we shot sub-30% on open and wide open 3s as a team that series. Nice to see James add a CP3-esque floater to his game so we can actually score if that nightmare scenario occurs again (probably not with CP3 on the floor, but who knows).
Oth ppl on the stats bandwagon are widly overestimating importance of percentages...not sure if i met even one stat person that truly understands statistics and how limited and unscientific their analyses and drawing bb conclusions from the numbers are
Indeed, and some posters have provided some interesting stats which is cool. If I come across anything interesting I may add to it. Strange that you felt the need to criticize the thread simply because all that analysis wasn’t made available up front.
It will take another 50 years until the statistics ppl can cover all this in their formulas the percentages we discuss in this thread will be as obsolete by then as boxscores are today......it will be considered as outdated and highly misleading almost irrelevant to judging how one should play
I was thinking of it more in terms of the totality of the play. A step back 3 is easier to get off, and yes sometimes he draws a foul, but lower percentage and (I suspect) a miss is more likely to lead to a bucket going the other way. The floater requires more work to get to, and sometimes the lane isn’t open, but misses are more likely to be cleaned up by an offense rebounder. He may not get fouled as much on the floater, but on the drive he can make decisions on whether to try to draw the foul or float it up. I think a more optimal balance can be struck — less forced step backs in ISO under tight coverage and more PnRs that can lead to floaters/lobs/kick outs.
Don't forget about getting fouled more when driving vs. shooting a 3 and the very real possibility of an alley to either Capela or Faried when/if the D collapses. Give me the floater still and play Harden less minutes then.
I'd still prefer drives all the way to the rim whenever presented, he doesn't get fouled on floaters at anywhere near the pace he does on full drives. The Floater is option 4 when driving to the rim, options 1-3 consisting of layup, lob, kick-out for 3, in that order.
The reason he is using the floater more right now instead of going all the way is bc of the neck/shoulder stuff...it's a great counter, definitely not a go-to move for him.
lmao yet the Rockets have the #2 record in the entire NBA since we let some nerd force us to shoot more 3s with his "obsolete in 50 years stats". Its easy to say the offense sucks (even tho its been in the top 5 for god knows how long) when you complain about "all the misses" and act like a midrange jumper goes in as often as a layup. It's great that CP3 is efficient enough to make the midrange efficient, but its WAY easier to just have a guy shoot 3s instead of hoping he becomes CP3/KD/Dirk good on midrange jumpers.
Same shot, opposite result. Alston’s career average on floaters was 0.00% on 18 attempts per game (IIRC).
I was not criticizing the thread. Lots of people make polls about people's subjective opinions. I was disappointed with you because of my high expectation. No hard feelings. I saw that you started a thread about Harden's two different shots and immediately thought you would bring some interesting stats for discussion.
I thought the thread and poll was about "go to move" -- Step-Back v Floater. If we are talking Harden 3s vs PnRs/ISO drives, then that is a larger discussion -- especially since we have many, many different PnRs, not to mention the threat of 3, is what he mainly added this year (per Harden/MDA), and that has opened up his drives more. Surely, Harden loves to drive, draw contact, throw alley-oops, pocket-passes as much as anything. I guess now I have no idea what this poll is about. Is this just yet another "Why doesn't Harden drive more" thread?
Using @heypartner's tip, here are some more numbers: 2018-19: 65/123 on floaters (52.8%) and 158/392 on step-back 3s (40.3%) 2017-18: 46/91 on floaters (50.5%) and 78/175 on step-back 3s (44.6%) Based on those numbers, I may have to reconsider my initial assessment in this thread. It is possible that the recording of step-back 3s in the play by plays is under-counting misses vs makes, but assuming that's not the case the volume and efficiency of Harden's step-back 3s is simply incredible. According to these stats, he's more than doubled his step-back 3 attempts, in 16 less games so far (can't quibble the minor drop in efficiency from 44.6% to 40.3%). His floaters are also a more prominent weapon this year, with some improved efficiency to boot. FWIW, in the 4th quarter this year, Harden is 17/24 (71%!) on floaters, and 34/100 (34%) on step-back 3s. By quarter: Code: Period Floater Step-back 3 Made Att % Made Att % 1 11 32 38% 45 103 44% 2 15 32 47% 44 91 49% 3 21 33 64% 33 95 35% 4/OT 18 26 69% 36 103 35%
The poll is about the better go-to move. So, in the playoffs, which shot would like to see featured more prominently in our offense.
