Trump to declare national emergency to build border wall

Stephen Miller’s Own Words Show the Weakness of the Trump Legal Argument on the Wall

https://www.nationalreview.com/corn...ness-of-the-trump-legal-argument-on-the-wall/

 

Could Congress Block Trump’s Emergency Declaration?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-congress-block-trumps-emergency-declaration/

 

There is a recent Yale paper that came out that posits that the actual number is a lot larger than earlier estimates. I think that is where the 30mm number came from although I believe the Yale study had a range with the upper number in the high 20's (I need to look back.)

If this new study is accurate (it used a different methodology), we have way underestimated the illegal population.

Couple of interesting things:

1) if true, this seems to further support the idea that illegal aliens are the least likely to run afoul of the law; and
2) numbers from hospitals don't seem to support these new numbers.

I will try and find the article where I saw this.

 

Here it is:

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insig...undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates


Immigration is the focus of fierce political and policy debate in the United States. Among the most contentious issues is how the country should address undocumented immigrants. Like a tornado that won’t dissipate, arguments have spun around and around for years. At the center lies a fairly stable and largely unquestioned number: 11.3 million undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. But a paper by three Yale-affiliated researchers suggests all the perceptions and arguments based on that number may have a faulty foundation; the actual population of undocumented immigrants residing in the country is much larger than that, perhaps twice as high, and has been underestimated for decades.

Using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, the researchers estimate there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Even using parameters intentionally aimed at producing an extremely conservative estimate, they found a population of 16.7 million undocumented immigrants.

Read the study: The Number of Undocumented Immigrants in the United States: Estimates Based on Demographic Modeling with Data from 1990 to 2016
The results, published in PLOS ONE, surprised the authors themselves. They started with the extremely conservative model and expected the results to be well below 11.3 million.

“Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” says Edward Kaplan, the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at the Yale School of Management. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50% higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”

Jonathan Feinstein, the John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale SOM, adds, “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, ‘What is it based on?’ You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”

The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?

The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”

While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.

Notably, the upper bound of the traditional survey approach, which also produces a range, doesn’t overlap with the lower bound of the new modeling method. “There really is some open water between these estimates,” Kaplan says. He believes that means the differences between the approaches can’t be explained by sampling variability or annual fluctuations.

There are key areas of agreement between this paper and the existing survey numbers. Both methods found that the greatest growth of the undocumented population happened in the 1990s and early 2000s. Both found that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008.

“The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” says Fazel‐Zarandi. In his view, that suggests the survey method doesn’t effectively reach a group with incentives to stay undetected. “They are capturing part of this population, but not the whole population.”

more at link

 

So... between 13m and 16m. Not in the 20's, and not in the 30's...

 

Help me with where you got that. I read it as saying the range is between 16 and 29mm with a 95 percent confidence interval.

The article says they were able to derive the 16mm from purposefully inputting intentionally conservative numbers to achieve what they describe as an extremely conservative estimate of 16.7mm.

The take away number the author of the article uses is 22mm but that apears to be used just because it is the mean of the range.

Where did you get your numbers? What did I miss?

 

See if this graph from the underlying paper helps:

 

A month from now, we'll all laugh at this and nothing will come from it.

#pessimistic

 

I saw the conservative numbers to get the 16m. I don't know where I got the 13m.

 

Thanks. Thought I was going crazy.

 

prolly from the graph?

 

It's one study so who knows if it is even accurate. I learned that everyone didn't think the Earth was flat during Columbus years yesterday.....

Interesting thing was one article on the study picked up that if the numbers really are that high, the percentages for arrests are that much lower for illegal aliens.

 

They are breaking the law at a 100% rate.

 

While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.

Notably, the upper bound of the traditional survey approach, which also produces a range, doesn’t overlap with the lower bound of the new modeling method. “There really is some open water between these estimates,” Kaplan says. He believes that means the differences between the approaches can’t be explained by sampling variability or annual fluctuations.

There are key areas of agreement between this paper and the existing survey numbers. Both methods found that the greatest growth of the undocumented population happened in the 1990s and early 2000s. Both found that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008.

“The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” says Fazel‐Zarandi. In his view, that suggests the survey method doesn’t effectively reach a group with incentives to stay undetected. “They are capturing part of this population, but not the whole population.”

 

“I want to do it faster. I could do the wall over a longer period of time. I didn’t need to do this, but I’d rather do it much faster…. I just want to get it done faster, that’s all.”

Well, it depends on what he was getting at. He could mean he wanted to finish it faster because there was an emergency, and while he could do it slower, it wouldn't help because there is an emergency. This could be just a poorly phrased sentence, as are most of his sentences. A laywer could easily cast doubt on that phrase. It was not an admission that there was no emergency.

 

The last minute of that clip es la mejor.

 

That's funny because it's true that he is a huge hypocrite. But it doesn't change the now and present national emergency facing our country regarding illegal immigrants and caravans of them at that. It doesn't change his legal authority to declare one as well, because he is the sitting President. It is also funny that the left critiques him on his comments critiquing Obama for it, but will defend Obama's use of a national emergency in a heart beat while decrying Trump's use of one. So I just see hypocrites everywhere at this point.

 

Nevermind.