[Mother Jones] What the Cult of Ruth Bader Ginsburg Got Wrong

People died in their 40s and 50s 200 years ago if they made it to adulthood. Im sure there was a huge discrepancy in class but people live much longer now

In 1850 if a white male made it to 10 they were still looking at death by 58

 

Trump is an incumbent and that is an advantage. Further the electoral college configuration favors him IMO. If the economy is solid he will have a good chance of being re-elected.

The Senate configuration isn’t good for the Democrats. It would take a blue wave to take the Senate.

It is possible that the Democrats take the Senate and Whitehouse but it is more likely that they take one or lose both.

It is really early too...,a lot can change between now and Election Day.

As an aside, remember that Trump has received a barrage of negative attention (mostly deserved) for two years. That may need t be the case a year from now, especially depending on the Mueller Report.

I gamble.... I am very selective about the bets I make. I wouldn’t touch a bet about 2020 right now.

 

Kind of like when Ronald Reagan was re-elected?

 

I don't disagree with this. Life expectancy has only increased in the last fifty years. 1900 wasnt much different from 1800 and im sure most of the years since we have moved from the forest its been constant

That being said the last 50 years there has been a huge increase because of advances in medicine

I would suspect that people's minds were sound in their 50s in 1800 but there bodies gave out so for the most part failing mental health probably still wouldn't have been a major issue to the founding fathers

 

Do you feel the same way about Thomas, Alito?

 

The electoral college no longer favors him as see n in the midterms, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are all leaning heavily Blue.

He is bleeding support with independents.

None of that says that he is likely to be reelected or the Senate will not flip.

If you bet regularly everything would say bet on the Dems not saying it's a slam dunk bet it is definitely pointing that direction.

How do you see the electoral college configuration favoring him when he can't win Pennsylvania and Michigan?

 

I'm not sure what to think of the 2020 election, yet, but drawing too much from the midterm results is a mistake. The party that won the presidential election almost always gets clobbered in the midterms. This is mostly attributed to the losing parties base being much more motivated than the winning parties.

 

Do you see the base as being less motivated in 20/20?

and I am basing it on the fact that he won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by very low margins be a of a very unlikable opponent.

there a lot of hope for the best voters for Trump he will no longer get the benefit of dought, I also predict Republicans will stay at home instead of signing of on 8 more years, they got most of what they wanted.

 

I'm just explaining modern electoral history at the national level. The party who won the presidency last typically gets clobbered in the mid-terms (though not always). Presidents also usually win re-election, therefore, results of the mid-term election are not a great tool to predict how the Presidential election will go.

This phenomena is largely explained by a lack of motivation in the "winning" parties base and naturally a lot of motivation in the "losing" parties base.

Presidential elections are different.

You can predict Trump will lose, and he might, idk I don't really have a good pulse on it, but typically, President's win re-election.

 

I would not count of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all going blue. Likewise, Colorado is likely to be in play.

What senate races do you think are going to flip from red to blue? The most contested seat is in Alabama, where a democrat is likely to lose his seat (Doug Jones).

The only two questionable seats on the republican side are in Colorado and Arizona where Republican incumbents are slightly favored.

The Republicans have a 53-47 advantage. The Democrats would have to run the table on all the close races and win in states like Arizona, Colorado and Alabama. It is possible, but that is a small margin for the Democrats to operate in, and it isn't a smart bet to count on one party winning all the toss up states.

I would bet on the democrats? To win both the White House and the Senate? I think there is less than 50/50 chance of that happening so it isn't a smart bet. I would say there is a 1/3-1/4th chance of that happening.

As far as winning Pennsylvania and Michigan, I think those are going to be closely contested states, but he can lose both those states and still win the election.

I expect a very close election, with Republicans and conservative independents and libertarians favoring Trump when push comes to shove, especially if the democrats nominate a Radical like Sanders/Warren/Beto. It really comes down to how well each side gets turnout.

 

This is dangerous to count on. Trump is polarizing, but he is also very charismatic. Issues like the Supreme Court and the Wall and the Immigration Ban all are very controversial and are being contested. His supports will show up, because this is the best shot they have for decades and they know it. They have been marginalized by their own party for decades.

The Democrats are going to need very high female turnout and minority turnout. Even then, many older women (who vote) support Trump because he supports their life view and financial and racial security.

The independents and apolitical people are largely voting for Trump if the economy is in good shape.

 

Wouldn't that show in polling now? The economy is in good shape and he's still really only supported by his base.

If anyone thinks that the energy on the left won't be at an all time high to remove trump from office, you haven't been paying attention. The midterms last year and the election next year won't be following historical trends. He's done an incredible amount of damage in the states that he won by extremely thin margins. trump probably holds on to FL and Ohio but he's all but lost PA, MI, and WI. Other states that weren't in play previously might be now, too.

 

When it gets close to election time, it will get closer. It almost always does.

I am not convinced that he has done long term damage to his prospects in PA, MI and WI. For every possible state that could be in play from Trump, that is also the case for the democratic nominee. I think it is very possible Trumps wins the Electoral College and loses the GE.