To me, asking 170 innings out of a guy who was a reliever last season (65 ip) and who has never thrown more than 150 innings in a season (even in the minors) is the definition of overly optimistic. Getting a full season out of McHugh is a little more realistic but again, he has spent the last 2 seasons in relief (135 innings combined).
While I don't think Peacock pitches 170 innings, Peacock's pitched more than 150 innings in the minors twice and got to 144 innings in the majors with postseason in 2017. If Peacock can still pitch 4-5 good innings a start and stays healthy, he'll be in the 150 range. Though, I expect if Astros started season with Peacock, Peacock's likely loses innings to Whitley before his arm needs rest. McHugh also started in 2017 once he was back from the DL. I'm expecting a huge year from McHugh relative to what projections are showing (not necessarily so much in innings, but in quality).
I I am bad at the maths. He did pitch 158.2 innings in 2011 and 162.1 in 2013. Not that it affects my point in the slightest.
No matter how you grind it, the Astros will seemingly be depending on unproven players more this year than the last two. Consequently, our success will also. It could work out brilliantly. Or not. Still, it adds more variability to 2019's outlook. One that could end up a lot like 2017 where heroes emerge from nowhere (non-Astros fans). I think dynamic is the word I am looking for. Good, bad or ugly, I think 2019 will be dynamic.
Unless Tucker starts the season with Houston, every single position player is 'proven'. The bullpen is all 'proven'. Assuming the top three starters are Verlander, Cole and McHugh, they are all 'proven'. So, potentially the 4th and 5th starters won't be 'proven'.
I would add 2-3 possible reliever positions, at least initially. McHugh moving out of the pen and Joe Smith not being available till late June creates two more holes to fill. Probably no Sipp either. Replacing these innings could be by proven players, or not. I would also say Brantley needs to prove he can stay healthy. Perhaps Correa needs to prove his back is OK ?
I think your point is that he's unlikely to pitch 170 innings because his arm has never shown it is strong enough to pitch 170 innings based on previous inning totals. He won't get 170 innings because he's an Astro, and it is doubtful he gets 34 starts for the Astros. Too many great pitchers on Astros with Astros still trying to add more. On several teams, he would be used like a workhorse (his efficiency would suffer) and likely get a real shot at 170 innings.
Your definition of proven is different than mine. Probably just semantics, but I would say they have question marks as opposed to unproven players.
Yeah if you want to be a pessimist there’s a red flag attached to almost every everyday/core player on the roster: Altuve: knee Correa: back Brantley: injury history Gurriel: age Reddick: age Chirinos: age Verlander: age McHugh: transitioning from bullpen James: rookie Valdez: rookie Rondon: age Osuna: criminal Bregman, Cole, Springer, and Pressly are really the only guys who I feel can be 100% relied on to be stellar.
Allen is a great signing for LAA. With Trout set to hit the FA market in 2 years, gotta think they’ll start to go all in in an attempt to pursuade him to stay. Would not be surprised if they inked DK.
And someone is going to have to replace what McHugh did out of the pen too We haven’t even replaced Sipp who was pretty good last year
Sipp would likely not make the 2019 Astros as I doubt Astros expect him to pitch as well as last season. If Astros do think he can make the team, there is a good chance they can get him cheap.
Just heard Crane on 97.5 say that there is a chance that Marwin comes back. He of course wasn’t sure, but I find it a bit interesting nonetheless.
