I don't understand how you take for granted that any deal won't unanimously ratified by the EU27? Of course it will take a lot of time and debates but that doesn't mean at all that there can be no deal possible.
Well...with the opportunity of Brexit I have learned a lot about UK politics lately..and I am SHOCKED how the UK doesn't have a constitution that regulates the power of the speaker and the parliament exactly. It's like in some ways they are stuck in the 1600s monarchy. Do you know that they only have been going by precedent? That's ridiculous.
That is pretty close to what Theresa May said in her statement from before the vote earlier today. From Reuters: May - We are leaving the EU on March 29 LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May said on Wednesday that Britain will be leaving the European Union on March 29, and that the bloc would only consider extending the ‘Article 50’ negotiating period if there was a credible alternative exit plan. “The government’s policy is that we are leaving the European Union on the 29th of March. But the EU would only extend Article 50 if actually it was clear that there was a plan that was moving towards an agreed deal,” she told parliament, a day after her proposed Brexit deal was rejected by a large margin.
How about a second refereum since we know now how incompetence Brexit legislators are? Wasn’t that ******* Farage talking about how easy it will be to negotiate?
Okay, but some proactive thing has to be done to block the exit, right? Even if no one wants to exit without a deal, they'll need to muster enough votes to actually pass something. If I understand, come March 30 there will be an exit unless they can get a majority to vote Yes on something.
Not only that but many pro leavers campaigners outright promised frictionless trade. They also promised to withhold the billions they already owe to the EU and put that in the NHS.
I think the big problem here for the EU is that if they give in to the UK and allow them favorable trade without having to be a member or being subject to their laws then every other economically viable country will want to do the same. On the other hand, if they DON'T allow favorable trade deals without being a member or being subject to their laws then you get a no deal Brexit which would put a lot of countries in a really bad spot unless deals got done quickly.....notably Germany who essentially controls the EU. Without a deal done, German car imports to the UK would be affected which according to their own people would be "fatal" to the industry. Since it would hurt Germany, that means that the EU will act quickly to get a deal done......but again, if they get that deal done, it could cause other viable countries to want to leave and no longer have to pay in to the EU and get better terms themselves.....the whole system could collapse. The EU should have remained just a trade alliance instead of trying to become a superstate country, and that's what will ultimately lead to their downfall.
But that has already happened. The parliament has already taken steps to ban no deal Brexit. That's why postponement of article 50 is a one way street right now and only a matter of time. Basically they don't agree on much. But they have agreed to disagree on some things. May's deal and no deal.
Yeah, the EU is in a tough spot. It does not seem likely that the UK is the last country to exit the EU.
May is right now a clown and a hypocrite. She says she will starting from today , invite senior political figures from across parties to get something done, but at the same time put immediately the red line of no custom union. It's blatant hypocrisy. It's like saying come to the table but from the start I reject everything you want. That's why don't take any she says at this point as having political importance. She doesnt' even have the power anymore. In 2 days from now the MPs will start ammending her new plan on their own. The government doesn't have the power any more they have lost their chances.
Theresa May needs to bite down like a bulldog and hold on for dear life. The strategy now for her is to run out the clock, although that might not be as easy as it sounds. If she hangs on, she will be spoken of in song, legend and lore for generations to come. She will be a hero, although it may take many people in the UK a little while to realize it.
So, hypothetically if they don't get an agreement on postponement of article 50 and we reach March 29, given the ban on exiting without a deal, what happens?
If there is no postponement of article 50 then the UK will leave the EU on the last day of March with no deal. The cabinet ministers will have to finally start for good their no deal brexit plans to assure there won't be chaos instead of hiring pizza companies with no ships. Since there will be no deal with the EU they can start negotiating from now their trade deals with non EU countries. However it won't happen because the same MPs who have voted to prohibit no deal Brexit are the same, and even more, who will vote for postponement of article 50. Ever since 2017 the parliament has been in a fight with the government and step by step have managed to take the power of decisions away from May's government with the peak being that just last week they passed to only give her 3 single days to come back to parliament with the new plan just so she can't even attempt to run down the clock. Basically the postponement of article 50 has already happened it just hasn't been voted.
Fair enough. I think I'd still call exiting without a deal the path of least resistance because that's where you go if you're passive. I understand the political aversion to doing that and hope they manage to do something more structured. However, I'm reminded of that time when the Obama Admin and the Republican Congress made a deal on sequestration reasoning that if they set up a time-bomb inside the government, surely the absolute necessity to agree on some other budget deal would force them to find compromise -- and then they couldn't compromise.
once again it's not an election and as Malakas said there are constitutional rules that allow the referendum.
