Outside of fringe lunatics that don't really have a grasp of economics, the accepted concensus by all sides in UK is that the net effect of a no-deal exit would be economically far worse than the 2008 meltdown (though played out over a longer timeframe).
That would be correct until a few weeks ago. But since then with the clock ticking down,senior MPs have begun cross collaborating to block no deal. So even if they can't come to an agreement by 29 March there won't be a no deal Brexit. Actually May's deal wasn't supposed to fail so miserably. It would still be at historic levels of course but not at 200+. It was because there was a new amendment that said that by voting on May's deal you also rule out no deal Brexit .However because Labour on purpose wanted to make the defeat even bigger they pulled it out at the last day. Make no mistake that no deal will not pass even if they can't decide if they prefer tea or coffee for breakfast. They will just keep postponing Brexit.
If not for the EU then Britain will collapse and war will break out all across Europe. Yup, that's what they are going with.
I mean no offence but if Greece is a disaster of a nation then there aren't many nations that aren't disasters. And I like how the current economic crisis which is but a bleep in history, has suddendly given some people the delusion that it is alright to attack a whole nation and we are supposed to be offended by it? LOL Imagine calling propaganda something that is actually your own experience and your own memories retailed with your own words. Btw propaganda is a word with greek roots so you may want to reconsider using words by a disaster nation. But then I doubt you can even put more than a paragraph together since english has borrowed so many of them.
The pound has already lost approx 20% of its value since the referendum, and that's based on the premise of an orderly exit. That alone is disasterous. It will lose another 15-30% with a no-deal exit, meaning UK as a whole would have lost 35-50% of their wealth. And that's not even accounting for slower economic growth and a very likely extended recession. Notice the people who say everything will be fine never provide any data to back up their viewpoints. That tells us a quite a bit about their position.
sure. It will be very interesting in the following days. Will May first seek out to unite her own party and harden her stance or go to Labour which means a softer Brexit with a guaranteed custom union. The defeat was so big that has rattled the cabinet members and it may lead to a softer Brexit. I personally don't think there will a second referendum but they will find a balance to a Norway style- which btw will have the most trouble being accepted by the EU27. Because UK isn't Norway it is much bigger and they don't want to grant them any kind of unfair advantage in trade or services.
I'm pointing out that you have a vested interest in the EU remaining intact and healthy, your country is effectively a leech on the EU. If the UK leaves and that threatens the stability of the EU, your country might have to go back to pulling your own weight and I don't think you guys are capable of that. I think in conversations like this it is important to point out conflicts of interest that bias viewpoints.
Today, you say "I get it that they do not want "No deal". I do not want "No deal"." On Nov 15, you said "No deal is what is needed here. It will make for a bit of a bumpy ride through the transition. However, they will get it all worked out." Which is your actual opinion?
I personally prefer the UK OUT of the EU. They have always been creating problems vetoing against environmental laws, work rights and even voted in favour of extreme right wing Hungarian dictator. Firms that provide services will move on to continental europe and so are factories so all the best for the rest. The little Englanders of the north especially ,are very snobbish and off putting, so there's not very much love lost between me and them. What's your point again? Oh right you didn't have one. If you don't know that's fine but your words are empty and void of logic. I don't speak for america because I barely have a clue, so it's pretendious sad and pitiful that you try to speak for europeans that you have no connection with. * I feel however very sad for the British citizens in the EU, that have been abandoned by their own nation It's a human rights violation in my opinion.
A "No deal Brexit" is infinitely better than a deal that makes the UK a vassal state of the EU or remaining in the EU. A serious deal would be the best thing for the UK, but it appears no one is interested in any serious deal that actually gets the UK out of the EU
No you don't. The UK is the 3rd leading contributor to the EU and that'll mean that your country will be given less if the burden isn't taken up by others.....which could lead them to decide to leave as well. Right now how do you think the French people would respond if they found out the EU wanted them to pay more in at a time when there are already people in the streets protesting over taxation now? You know the whole system could crumble if the UK just left and stopped contributing. Meanwhile, the UK would end up better off a few years after being out not only because they wouldn't have bureaucrats in Brussels determining their laws, but because they could seek deals that put their best interest ahead of the best interest of the EU.
But I do. They won't be able to export their sheep and will cull 1/3 of it which means our own will rise. The ship companies which were based in London will have to be repatriated. Banks and autofactories will relocate to a country in the common market. Since they won't be a part of the eu and their diplomas won't immediately translate their education industry will fall which means more foreign students from third countries will be interested to study in continental universities. Cheap romanian seasonal labour workers instead of going to the english farms to pick strawberries will come to work in the fields here. As for tourism! We will be done with the extremely low spending always drunk and disorderly British tourists that litter our beaches. The villages in southern europe that cater to them are all owned by british who hire only british for seasonal jobs, which will have to sell them. The pound will fall to extremely low which means I can easier if I want to shop in London. And if they stay in the customs union like Norway they will have to pay for it without having the right to veto anything. I don't see much problem.
That's not true though. If a no deal Brexit happened, it would just mean that the UK would be subject to the WTO rules, they'd still be doing trade. Also, those trade deals would get hammered out pretty quickly given that there is still a strong demand for UK goods. Also, it's very likely that trade between the US and UK would increase if the EU was foolish enough to leave room for it. As to thinking that students will all of a sudden opt to go to inferior continental schools over a very temporary issue (if at all) over diplomas....I mean that's wishful thinking at best. Brits will still go on holiday and I'm sure they'll still go to Greece....and if they stopped, you do realize that would hurt your country right? Anyway, I get why you are trying to make lemonade here but it comes across as incredibly naive. The UK is a global powerhouse economically and I see no reason whatsoever that would change simply by cutting off the EU. It would be like suggesting that the US isn't going to make it due to not being in the EU. The UK are one of the big kids around the world, they don't need a nanny super state providing for them.
If there was a deal that could be agreed to by both the UK Parliament and also unanimously by the 27 countries of the EU that was in the best interests of bith the EU and the UK, and also provided a complete exit from the EU for the UK -in spirit and in truth - I think that would be best possible solution imaginable here. Unfortunately, it is not clear what deal there might be that can pass even the UK Parliament alone. And even such a deal were to be found, it appears quite clear that there is effectively zero chance that the 27 countries of the EU would ratify this treaty. There is no deal to be had. So if the UK is going to respect the will of the voters who voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, then it will have to be done without a deal being agreed to in advance of the official date of Brexit. This is not ideal, but it is better to leave without a deal than to shank the credibility of the UK's democratic system right in the back by not leaving.
That's actually a very strong point. If you hold a referendum and the vote says you are going to do something, if you don't do it how can any future referendum be taken seriously? If you don't actually have to do what the people vote for, why even bother letting them vote?
No, not at all, but I understand that there's a certain percentage of posters that will always think that in order to avoid actual discussion. If that's the route you want to go, more power to you.
