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Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    If Trump is only running ahead of these guys at only 1point that should be a huge alarm for Republicans.
     
  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Nate Silver has published an extremely wonky analysis of the currently anticipated field of Democrat candidates, and concludes that Kamala Harris and Beta O'rourke may have more upside that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, the last two being probably the two current frontrunners in most people's minds.

    The article is pretty long, so I am just including two select paragraphs below, but I suspect some of you would really enjoy reading the rest of the article:

    Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden

    O’Rourke has one of the more obvious three-pronged coalitions: He’d hope to win on the basis of support from Millenials and Friends, Party Loyalists and Hispanics. The groups might support him for somewhat different reasons, and O’Rourke won’t win any of them without a fight, but he has a clearer path than the other Democrats we’ve mentioned so far.

    The candidate who looks best according to the coalition-building model is probably not O’Rourke, however. Instead, it’s California Sen. Kamala Harris, who potentially has strength with all five groups.​

    If I had to pick the most likely winner right now - it is way too early, but here goes - I would pick Kamala Harris. I do not see how the Democrats can put up a white-skinned male after all the vitriol that many people on their side have targeted at this demographic. Kamala is neither white-skinned or male. So, I agree with Silver's conclusion with regards to Kamala Harris.

    On the other hand, Beto O'Rourke is both white-skinned and male. Also, he appears to me to be more of a media creation built by the enormously well funded advertising and P.R. campaign orchestrated on O'Rourke's behalf and against Ted Cruz during the 2018 Texas Senate election. I know some of you do not see him this way and I will admit I could easily be wrong about this. But O'Rourke appears to be an empty suit poser to me that will not stand the test of time.

    Harris however, checks all the "Identity politics" and "Political correctness" boxes for the radical activist Democrat left this time around. I could be wrong about this too, but it appears to me that this crowd puts a very high value on these factors and will be very supportive of such a candidate.

    Anyway, Nate Silver has his own thoughts on all of this, which are not the same as mine. See for yourselves.
     
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  3. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    the description of Gillibrand seems apt
     
  4. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Nothing spells comedy more than mistake-in-chief partisans commenting on the Democratic field of candidates.

    Anyone still maintaining confidence in the dotard's ability to govern forgoes the necessary mental accuity to make knowledgable commentary on the Dems.
     
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  5. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member
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    Repubs spent the entire first half of Obama's first term trying to paint him as an empty suit. Remember all the teleprompter gags?

    It didnt gain any traction at all with Obama's supporters.

    The same thing with senile clown Donald Trump. His supporters still view him as an extremely stable genius no matter how much evidence to the contrary because people got a shiver when he looked into the camera very seriously and said, "You're Fired!"

    We are in the era of the Nightly News Anchor Presidency. If the people like you, competency is irrelevant. I don't think attacking O'Rourke on a lack of gravitas and substance is going to work, though I think in a vacuum it is a very reasonable thing to discuss, as it should have been with basically every president since 2000, 'but wasn't.

    Experience is for losers these days, apparently.
     
    mdrowe00 and Anticope like this.
  6. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    I just posted quotes from an article by one of your heroes, Nate Silver. What could your beef possibly be about that?
     
  7. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]

     
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  8. Anticope

    Anticope Member

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    This is a great point and sums up well the struggle that a lot of us that lean to the left are going to have in the upcoming primaries. There is absolutely a case to be made that someone like Beto is not qualified to be president, he spent only 6 years as a house representative and sat on the El Paso City Council just a few years ago. I seriously question his experience and readiness for a role like being POTUS but it's hard to question the fact that he has the appeal that gives him as good of a chance as anybody (IMO) to take down Trump as the Democratic candidate.

    On the other hand, I feel that someone like Amy Klobuchar would be a great president and has the experience to fill the role but it's hard to see her producing the type of enthusiasm (and ultimately turnout) that someone like Beto would be able to. Unfortunately, it already feels like electability is going to be a more important factor than actual ability to govern but that's the world we live in now and it only seems to be trending more and more in that direction.
     
  9. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    And then there's our current mistake-in-chief...
     
  10. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    If the main effort of attacking Beto by Trumplicans will be -

    -Calls himself Beto (a nickname given to him as a kid growing up in El Paso of all places)
    -He played in a Rock Band
    -He ONLY has 8 to 10 years in Government = Inexperienced & unqualified

    I think he's got a pretty damn good chance to wiping the floor with Trump in 2020. If that is the best you can do he has my attention as a pretty formidable candidate.
     
  11. Anticope

    Anticope Member

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    Right. But I think Trump's the best example possible of why experience is important, yet at the same time, the fact that he's such a disaster makes the eventual Democratic nominee's electability and appeal that much more important. Thus, the struggle between being electable and having the experience necessary to govern effectively.
     
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  12. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Good point. Though, based on the continued support of this president, despite the overwhelming evidence of his incompetence, it may not matter.
     
  13. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    Gillibrand. ugh

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/01/what-demand-does-kirsten-gillibrand-supply.php

    WHAT DEMAND DOES KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND SUPPLY?
    POSTED ON JANUARY 15, 2019 BY PAUL MIRENGOFF IN 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, DEMOCRATS

    Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is expected to enter the presidential race today. Reportedly, she will make the announcement on Stephen Colbert’s program, and then head to Iowa to campaign.

    When the Democratic field is set, Gillibrand will likely be its second phoniest member, trailing only Sen. Cory Booker. In itself, phoniness is not necessarily a drawback. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards both made the national ticket.

    The real problem for Gillibrand is the presence of her female Senate colleagues, Elizabeth Warren and (presumably) Kamala Harris, in the 2020 field. What will be Gillibrand’s case for preferring her to them?

    Warren has been a leader of the Democratic left for some time. She has a national following. Gillibrand lagged well behind Warren in the lefty sweepstakes until recently, and she has no national following.

    Harris is a relative newcomer, but she has pushed her way to near the front of the leftist pack. She seems more charismatic than Gillibrand and she’s African-American. Thus, it’s difficult to see Gillibrand getting far running from the left.

    The best niche for Gillibrand might be as a less radical alternative to Warren and Harris (as well as to males in the field, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, if he enters). She might target, say, the less radical half of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 supporters. That’s about one-fourth of the Democratic primary vote.

    Gillibrand might receive aid in this endeavor from Wall Street, which seems to prefer her to Warren and Harris. Wall Street apparently sees Gillibrand’s leftism much as it saw Hillary Clinton’s — i.e., less than genuine.

    But Gillebrand would probably have to tack to the center to appeal to the less radical half of Clinton’s supporters. This is true even taking into account the possibility that these voters have moved leftward during the Trump years. Another opportunist “tacking” by Gillibrand might prove one too many.

    If Joe Biden enters the race, he would blow up any strategy by Gillibrand of moving back towards the center. Biden would occupy most of the niche I’ve just described.

    But even if Gillibrand is able to occupy this niche, it’s a formula, perhaps, for becoming a top tier candidate, not for capturing the nomination. Hillary Clinton barely won the nomination with her entire bloc of voters. It’s difficult to see Gillibrand winning it with, say, half of that amount of support.

    Might Gillibrand make the ticket as the nominee for vice president? Maybe, if she distinguishes herself on the campaign trail. The Democrats will want one female on the ticket, so any hope for Gillibrand probably rests on a male winning the presidential nomination.

    A black or Latino male might be optimal, since it would relieve pressure to put a minority on the ticket. But Julian Castro is quite unlikely to win the nomination. Cory Booker may have a better chance, but would the Dems double down on (1) phonies and (2) candidates from the New Jersey/New York?

    The answer to the first question is probably “why not?” The answer to the second is probably “no.”
     
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  14. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  15. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Awwww...

     
  16. Deji McGever

    Deji McGever יליד טקסני

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    I think you mis-read this, MojoMan

    Her presence in the primary will cause conversations about US foreign policy to happen that would otherwise not happen -- she'll stand out in much the same way Ron Paul stood out in GOP primaries. It may not win her a presidency, but it certainly will help her message reach a much larger audience.

    For Gabbard, it's against non-stop war and the growing surveillance state, all of which have been initiated by three different presidents based on the congressional authorization in 2001 to get those responsible for 9/11, a blank check essentially, which she is dead against.

    This is why the Democratic Party and their associates in the media don't like her -- their foreign policy has become indistinguishable from the op-eds of the recently departed Weekly Standard and it's not a conversation they want to be cornered on in public debate. That she enjoys a lot of cooperation from the Liberty caucus as well as anti-war populists has been and will be where her opponents will attack her. She'll also be attacked for not being enthusiastic enough with identity politics, despite being the candidate with the most check marks in the diversity boxes, and not sufficiently conspiracy-minded in anti-Trump histrionics.

    I believe all of this will only work to her long-term advantage.

    Domestically, she's closer to Bernie than anyone else running. When she left the DNC to endorse Sanders in 2016, she was told she was committing political suicide because Clinton was undoubtedly going to be president -- that will also help her much in the same way Obama's vote against Iraq helped him to gain support in the 2008 primaries vs Clinton, who voted for it, especially among the rest of the field not named Sanders who will try to sell their faux pro-working class bona fides despite being "with her" in order to curry favor with the party.

    With all that in mind, a VP spot if Bernie is the nominee is a likely end-goal, but just being there to debate will help her and her message to be more widely known outside Hawaii. She has a safe seat in Hawaii's 2nd district with a 70% approval rating and nothing to lose.
     
  17. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Yes, Gabbard will inspire a certain amount of debate that would not have otherwise occurred just like Rand Paul. I have no problem with her running, I just do not believe she has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination, at least not this time around.

    To be fair, I never considered Rand Paul to be any more of a serious contender in the 2016 Republican contest than I regard Gabbard to be in the 2020 Democrat contest.

    But let them all run if they want to. By all means.
     
  18. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Of course it does not matter to a diehard supporter of our current president. Your failure to acknowledge his incompetence makes your political acumen pretty myopic.
     
  19. BruceAndre

    BruceAndre Member

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    I think to have any possible chance of winning, the Dems have to nominate a centrist candidate, a la Bubba in 1992.

    That means: No Bernie. No whatever that lady's name is that think she's 1/1 millionth American Indian. No Kirsten Gillebrand. No Kamala Harris. In fact, they can't nominate anyone (IMO) that took the wrong side in the Kavanagh hearings.

    Now, I don't know of any such Democratic candidates. Perhaps someone else here does.

    That is, of course, if the Democrats really want to win. It might be that they'd rather virtue signal.
     
  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Maybe John Kasich can switch parties and run as a Democrat?
     

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