The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

[NPR] U.K. Parliament Rejects Theresa May's Brexit Deal In Pivotal Vote

With the U.K. fast approaching the March 29 deadline for when it will leave the European Union, the prospects for an orderly, on-time Brexit — or even any Brexit at all — have dimmed considerably. On Tuesday evening, British lawmakers rejected the deal Prime Minister Theresa May had reached with the EU, opening a Pandora's box of possible outcomes to be considered in the weeks to come.

And the result of the critical vote wasn't even particularly close.

Just 202 members of Parliament sided with May's plan, while 432 cast votes to kill the proposal. It was the biggest defeat for a British government in Parliament in modern times.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, has proposed a motion of no-confidence in May's government, which will be debated and put to a vote on Wednesday.

If the Labour leader succeeds with his no-confidence vote, he might then be able to force May's resignation and trigger a general election to oust Conservatives from power, though at the moment that appears unlikely.

Tuesday's result isn't much of a surprise, coming five weeks after May had to postpone the original scheduled vote to shore up support for her deal. It does, however, raise a series of difficult questions for the U.K. in the shadow of that March deadline – chief among them: What happens next?

One remote possibility is that May's own Cabinet may turn against her, telling the prime minister that they have lost confidence in her leadership and that she should step down. A number of her Cabinet ministers have already decided to step down in protest of her plan, and Conservative whip Gareth Johnson tendered his resignation on the eve of the vote.

But if, as seems more likely, May soldiers on, then the next step is relatively clear: "The Parliament has given Prime Minister May three [working] days to come back with a Plan B," NPR's Frank Langfitt explained. "She may go to Brussels on Wednesday to try to get more concessions on the deal. But people are skeptical that she's going to get anything that's going to win over members even of her own party."

But if that Plan B should fall through, Brexit's long-term future gets exceedingly murky. A few major possibilities, among many others, have emerged in recent weeks:

1. The U.K. faces the March 29 deadline to leave the EU without any deal in place. The prospect of a "no-deal Brexit," while cheered by some hard-liners, has spooked many others — including Rod McKenzie of the Road Haulage Association, which represents half the U.K.'s truckers. "The potential is pretty scary," he told Langfitt, saying customs checks may make transport a nightmare. "We could see 20 or 30 miles of lorry traffic queuing towards Dover, which is the No. 1 port with the continent."
2. Parliament seeks to extend the deadline for departure and renegotiate the Brexit deal in a way that is more palatable to lawmakers. May has ruled out such an extension, but the EU is already reportedly preparing for the possibility of a months-long Brexit delay. And the bloc's highest court has ruled that it's OK for the U.K. to unilaterally reverse its decision to leave. That said, EU leaders maintain that renegotiating the deal itself is off the table.
3. The last option is a prospect that, even a couple of months ago, might have seemed impossible: Go back to the British people with a second referendum. "It would be completely extraordinary. It would basically be saying, 'We can't work this out. We know you voted for it, but try again,' " Langfitt observed Tuesday. "That is an extraordinary thing for a democracy to do."

Whatever may come next, any plan that involves leaving the EU will need to cut through the Gordian knot that is Northern Ireland.

A roughly 20-year-old peace accord keeps the border open between the Republic of Ireland, which is an EU member, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. But that's a problem if the EU and U.K. are to separate. And the prime minister's "backstop" solution — temporarily keeping Northern Ireland in the EU customs union as both sides figure out a long-term arrangement — proved to be a key deal breaker for critics of May's agreement.

On Monday, May and her counterparts in the EU sought to assuage some of these concerns. In an open letter addressed to the prime minister, European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker committed to making sure "that the backstop will not need to be triggered."

"Were the backstop to enter into force in whole or in part, it is intended to apply only temporarily, unless and until it is superseded by a subsequent agreement," Tusk and Juncker added, pledging the "necessary political impetus and resources" to quickly reach that more permanent agreement.

Still, such pledges failed to placate the deal's many skeptics, who said the letter fell short of the legally binding changes to the draft text that they had been seeking.

Now, barring a miraculous last-minute renegotiation, May's deal and the backstop it included are dead. Only time will tell what will replace them — and that window of time, as British lawmakers well know, is quickly closing.

 

It appears that a referendum of a) no deal Brexit or b) stay
may be in order. Of course, that might make too much sense.

 

Nope. It was also on a whim of one person only that person is a phenomenal coward that instead of staying to solve the mess he created to bolster his party support, immediately went to retire in a villa in France.
Before 2016 Brexit was something only discussed on the fringes of the political scenes by the likes of clowns like Farage that noone took seriously not even the Daily Mail. Noone talked about it the public didn't care.
But because Cameron wanted to empower his government he decided to open the Pandora's box. Without preparation, without any real policing of the referendum spending laws, without distiguishing between the blatant lies and the truths of what it would entail.

That will do absolutely nothing.
The vast vast majority of pro leavers want a deal, that's what they expected when they voted. They want free trade they don't want a hard border and they even want services.
If there is a referendum it should have multiple options like a Norway deal or a Canada deal.
If you have only those binary options then a lot of people who still want to Brexit will have no choice but to vote remain.

And another thing.
It is a farce that the people most affected by this were not given the right to vote. 3 million british citizens who have been paying their taxes, fullfilling all their duties are right now stranded and the UK government has adviced them that if they want to keep on their jobs, families and lives they have to give up their own nationality.
I can't even imagine if my own country told me to give her up just so I can live as I have been for decades. The disgrace, bitterness and betrayal.

 

Much like mojomein's wish for the EU debate by petition option, I wish we could have a no confidence vote on our current prez...

 

Enough with the sovereignity talk. You have absolutely no clue what the EU stands for possibly because all your life you have lived in a world where the EU existed and europe has been a civilised place in peace.
Americans are so innocent and naive. What do you know about hatred?

There is not a SINGLE european nation including the Swiss that hasn't have wars, massacres and bloodbaths with their neighbours for centuries and millenia. National cleansings and genocides, religious wars , blood feuds.
If there was one word to characterise Europe that is HATRED for your neighbour. It has been sheared in our blood.
And since school education is mandatory with government controlled textbooks every single european nation makes sure that every child growing up knows how much their ancestors have suffered. Oh and btw everyone potrays themselves as the innocent ones and the others as the unlawful barbaric aggresors.
You think we are peaceful and nice to each other? LOL Pair any single european country with any neighbour and you will find racial slurs and epithets established for centuries in their language.

The fact that nowadays european countries can even sit on the same table and agree with peace on anything and the nations look kindly to each other so much is nothing short of a miracle. France and Germany, Hungary and Romania, Poland and Germany, Spain and France, Sweden and Denmark, UK and France, Uk and Ireland and the list goes on and on.
Unity and peace is what the EU stands for. If it didn't exist people would still be on each others throats.

I will give you an example. With our only EU neighbour we have had 4 wars only in the last 100 years AND were on opposite sides in the Cold War. They were communists and we weren't. They were Nazi collaborators and we weren't they were with Germany in WW1 and we were with Andante. But of course our bloodbaths started more than 1000 years ago.
Greek in their language means sweetalking backstabber and traitor and Bulgarian to us is literally synonymous with bloodthirsty.
People in my grandmother's generation would spit if they saw any Bulgarians. The women were potrayed to be whores and the men barbarians. Everyone from around the borders has someone in their family who has been tortured and killed by them.

However nowadays we are the closest allies and what a surprise friends. I mean of the people not of the governments. That's what open borders does. You can visit each other and surprisingly find out that they aren't monster and enemies. Thousands cross every day and that's how a hatchet that hasn't been able to be buried in one thousand years has been buried in only two decades. That's a miracle and where? In the Balkans.
Anyone younger than 40 has nothing bad and look kindly on each other.
On the contrary with our other NON EU neighbours the hatred still goes on.

Oh and btw UK is not a new country with no history like FYROM. It's national identity isn't under threat for being a member of a peaceful union with equal voting rights.

End rant.

 

First of all May smarty baited Corby to give him no time to prepare and admitted in her losing speech immediately that a no confidence vote by the opposition is in order.
Corbyn the leader, is basically the only one of Labour who wants Brexit. His Brexit with HIS government with HIM as Prime Minister. The Labour voters, the Labour unions, the Labour whip and the Labour MPs want to remain in the EU, with this or another government. He is a selfish narcissist who wants to fullfil his personal ambitions even if in expense of alieniating his own party.
However he has already failed because the DUP (northern ireland party) has already proclaimed that they will vote for May. May is relying on them because her government doesn't have enough majority otherwise. And that's a major reason that they can dictate what happens while the Scotts and the Welsh are ignored. They are the ones who are keeping May in power right now.

So tomorrow May will pass the vote. Then Corbyn will have no more choice but to be pragmatist and instead of trying to get to power by any means he will have to find a solution.
Also a plan can pass by the parliament but it will be a proccess of ruling out the options. There will be multiple votes. And the referendum will be the last one if Norway fails to pass.

 

I imagine that it was only a matter of time before the EU propaganda that they "prevent wars" popped up....it's simply not true. Europe won't break out in war if Merkel's 4th Reich falls.

That's merely a lie pushed so that countries will willingly bend the knee and give up self-governance to the German super state known as the EU. If Hitler knew it was that easy to conquer Europe, history would be quite a bit different.

 

There's no way Theresa May would do that, she's a remainer, she's been trying to sabotage the Brexit from the start.

 

No it is a no deal or postpone article 50(Brexit) to at least July. The EU has basically already said that they will accept postponing. The UK has recently been ruled by the EU high court, that they have the right to revoke it (NOT as negotiating tactic, that is they can revoke it (=> remain), once if they decide to stay) on their own without any agreement by the other members but they can't postpone it on their own any time they want.
When a deal passes the parliament ,then the government will go back to Brussels to open talks again. Right now, laughably we are STILL in the stage of general direction. That's what they will be voting for not the exact details. For example do you want to have a trade relationship like Canada, or you want to have a custom union like Norway. However the lawyers and the EU will have an input.
For example a MP tonight wanted to table an ammendment that the UK on its own will be able to stop the backstop in 2020. Even if it passed it would be illegal for international law. The government advised the speaker and he didn't choose it for voting. Another amendment today by a MP who wanted to power May's deal on the end of the backstop was also delusional and was voted down , with only 24 votes in favour, because everyone knew that even if it passed it would mean nothing.
So it certainly is not meaningless what they decide in the following weeks because it will still be a model of a deal.

 

yeah yeah whatever. As I said you know nothing.

 

Merkel 's 4th reich, how the heck
did you come up with that?

 

This is true. May is all in on Brexit no questions asked. Absolutely.
However she is absolutely against no deal. She wanted to blackmail the parliament that it is her deal or no deal so as to get votes, and she refused to rule out postponing article 50.
But What political muscle? LOL she has no political muscle at all. She has made so many mistakes from the beginning it wasn't all the others faults. First of they invoked article 50 immediately without any preparation. She wasted incredible amount of time on insisting that imaginary technology that doesn't exist and will not for who knows how many decades will solve the problem with the hard border. Most of all she didn't even talk to the Labour unions and MPs she didn't try to cross party support.
Her government has been found on contempt of the House ffs. She is a joke.
Her only quality is that she stoically stays there and gets all the abuse (she deserves) for her incompetence with dignity. That's all.

Btw the only reason she managed to pass the vote of no confidence by her own party and remain a PM is by admitting that she is just a Brexit PM and will not be up for election at the next Torry leadership conference. So her political carreer as a PM is already over as soon Brexit ends, or if we have a new election.

To be honest for a no deal to pass at this point not even Thatcher would manage it let alone an imbecile like May. There are very few MPs who support it and even less the public.

 

I have a hard time taking that seriously after you just got done peddling EU propaganda suggesting that the EU is what has prevented war in Europe....I mean, I get why there is an incentive for a disaster of a nation like Greece to stay in the EU so they can continue bailing out that country, but for countries that can survive on their own, they are just giving up their self-governance to become puppets of foreign powers.

It would be similar to if the the US tried to convince Canada to become the 51st state of the US. That's essentially what the EU is doing to the countries that matter in Europe. El Salvador would love that arrangement, but Canada wouldn't.

The EU is largely dominated by Germany and that'll become more evident as time goes on and they create their own EU military and more and more EU laws are forced on their vassals.

 

While true, I highly doubt she wants to be known as the woman that destroyed the UK and impoverished it's people for generations, so she's not going to push for a no-deal Brexit in the end.

The 3rd option is to punt it into the future with a delay.