The part that makes people feel weird can be summarised like this Reality : Some deals > no deal > some other deals May and project fear : All deals > no deal They are acting like no deal is the worst possible scenario, when this is patently untrue. They blather, they obfuscate, they project, but what she's asking right now is analogous to solving a cracked tooth by shooting yourself in the head. Having no deal isn't ideal, no one at all is claiming that no deal is the perfect scenario, but it's better than the crap she's trying to pass, and while they only have that binary choice, the best option is no deal. There are however plenty of potential scenarios that would be better than no deal mind you, but the EU is essentially playing for its life (which is itself on thin ice due to the absurdity of the Euro and the countries on the bad end of that) and have never had any interest in doing that. What they needed was a transactional nationalist leader willing to do whatever it took to get the UK into the best situation after it was all said and done. But let's for example examine the no deal scenario, there will be waves, but the two tidal waves is northern ireland and republic of ireland My bet is that emergency provisions are passed to stop both economies from imploding, but let's go with the scenario where obstinate bastards decide to bunker down. So how does the UK respond? Well they're part of the same nation, so the bank of england prints up a bunch of money (which is really just adding numbers to a computer), the government "borrows" that money, which really means just dumping a bunch of bonds and notes onto the market, which gets swallowed up because the government tends to pay its debt backs (and their debt is your asset), so they also have an interest in their already existing UK debt not plummeting in value, then dumps that money into northern ireland, and they never ask for that money back for the same reason FEMA aren't issuing Houston a bill, it's a federal government, it's what it does in times on emergency, they end up running a high budget deficit to cover this in the meantime, but that's ok because it's their own current and country. Not ideal but manageable, this is what basically every government does so this shouldn't seem unusual to anyone. So how about Ireland? Well the ECB doesn't lend money, that's part of its charter (yeah that's an actual thing), so that's out. The EU kitty will give an emergency payment most likely (of course the EU now has less money because the UK's net payments aren't there and Ireland have now gone from net contributor to net receiver), so the countries will all be up for bigger slices in the EU budget, they complain about what they pay already, and this emergency payment is a one off thing. Ireland can't run a budget deficit above 2% because of Euro rules, and the Italians are quite literally sitting there waiting for the EU to ditch those austerity rules for someone, and then they will (and then everyone will) so they either abandon austerity (which would be a good thing mind you, damn bureaucrats, but was itself designed to hinder the PIIGS to begin with) or they just don't let it happen (which is most likely). So where do they get their money? there's no "federal EU" to eat the debt for them, there's no higher deficits to ride the wave, their destiny is.... Greece. So yes, I can tell you which side of that border i'd want to be on.
Wow. A twist on the efficient market theory, your average citizen understand and knew all the risks and rewards.... I’m less convinced by accuracy of your statement. Brexit barely even won and that was only because they were voting for some vague notion. Will the UK be more like Norway or will it behave like it did pre EU? Who is saying the U.K. would go bankrupt? Sounds like classic Bandwagoner hyperbole used to prop up an argument.
Well uncertainty isn’t a good thing in this context. Populist politicians thrive on uncertainty but can’t govern. The U.K. is not the same U.K. it was that most of the Brexiters (an older demographic) remember. Leaving a $17 trillion trade union seems like a cut off your nose to spite your face move. Now that the U.K. knows the stakes better and has more information a second referendum is order. They watched the Brexit leaders’ incompetence and ineptitude. There is no nationalist leader willingly to take charge. When you barely win a referndum, you have an uphill battle to win support. A decision of this magnitude should have never been put to referndum. That’s the problem with nationalism/populism, lots of emotion and nostalgia but no real plans, just winging it.
Can you point to a single person - here or in the general news - that has claimed the UK will go bankupt at all, for any reason? Or are you just making things up as usual? BTW, I'm not sure you understand how trade works if you think all that will change is that the UK won't be imposing tariffs. The default of no-deal is not free trade with no barriers.
Now this is really something. The UK Parliament is taking up debate on a petition to implement Brexit intentionally with "No deal". They apparently have a process where Parliament will take up debate on petitions with over 100,000 signatures. On this question, the petition already has over 321,000 signatures, which dwarfs the required number, and presumably that number is still growing. Areas of UK pushing for Brexit no deal as petition HIJACKS May’s Meaningful vote A MONSTER petition demanding Britain adopts a no-deal Brexit and simply walks away from the EU without paying the crippling £39billion divorce bill has secured a debate in Parliament hours before Theresa May’s meaningful vote after it scooped more than 300,000 signatures. Die-hard Brexiteers hijacked Prime Minister Theresa May’s crunch Commons vote on Tuesday by winning a Parliamentary debate over whether the UK should opt for a no-deal scenario less than 24 hours before warring MPs vote on her Withdrawal Agreement. The 321,000 signatures dwarf the 100,000 needed to secure a discussion in the House of Commons. And the debate has been set for Monday afternoon, the day before MPs take part in the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal. The petition demands the UK walk away from the EU without coughing up the billions of pounds as agreed by Mrs May at the start of Brexit negotiations. The document, titled ‘Leave the EU without a deal in March 2019’, reads: “We will save billions of pounds from our EU divorce payment as well as a similar amount from Civil Service and Government costs. This money will be used to support our own country whilst we await the EU to talk to us to make deals more in our favour.” This is awesome. Talk about drama. This debate is scheduled to take place, in Parliament on Monday, the day before the 'Meaningful vote' on the Brexit Agreement that Teresa May negotiated with the EU Parliament. It looks like all the cards are in fact going to be on the table when this vote is held. Wow. What else could happen? And why do we not have this sort of petition for debate in Congress arrangement here?
To put this in context, 1.8 million signed the petition to force the UK parliament to discuss preventing Trump from visiting the UK. https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/171928 In a social media world, these things are publicity stunts. Not sure if they just have to debate it or vote on it, but it will be massively voted down if they do. After all, just last week, they actually passed a bill to try to penalize themseleves if they leave with "no deal" - so we already know a majority are opposed to no-deal: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/08/uk/brexit-uk-ministers-oppose-no-deal-gbr-intl/index.html
About 60 MPs only are hard Brexiteers. No deal has ZERO chance to pass. In fact there are determined MPs cross colaborating from both parties to make sure that it will not. Including the Speaker. 1)Tuesday will be the vote on May's deal. BBC has predicted it will fail by 220 votes though it may end up failing better because the hard brexiteers may support it. However it will be a miracle if it passes. Many MPs even don't bother to show up in debates because they already have made up their mind. 2)Right after maybe the same day the Labour leader will put on a no confidence vote to call for a general election. 3)If it doesn't pass, then May only has 3 single days to come back to the parliament with a new plan. => Zero chance she can come up with something different. However at this point MPs themselves can rapidly ammend said "new" plan and put on for voting their own plans. 4)So then we will be between Norway style and second refenderum. The MPs supporting the second refenderum want to put it on vote only after Norway has failed to pass because a lot of Norway style supporters will have no choice but to go for it then. At this point the parliament will be rapidly putting on plans for voting so it shouldn't take very long. So we have 3 outcomes for the next days. General election, Norway style or 2nd refenderum. With the Norway style agreeent the EU is doubtful to allow a country as big as UK. Anyway with all 3 options article 50 will have to be cancelled and Brexit postponed. There is the rumour that some Torry proleavers (No hard Brexiters) may support Norway style to guarantee Brexit and then try to harden the terms to Canada style. You may expect a warm trip to Oslo only to wake up in the hard winter tundra of Canada as they put it. The No deal Brexiteers are to support May's deal right now because if it fails to go through, with the newest amendment they have zero chance to pass what they desire.
It has been proven that a lot of the people who voted leave weren't the very old, in fact the very old who lived through WW2 and the years after were mostly remain. The pro leavers were mostly middle aged, and from the North where the towns and villages have been devastated and marginalised economically. Their vote was in hope of change or a vote of protest. However every single prediction has shown that the ones to be hit harder by any kind of Brexit and especially a no deal Brexit, will be these same Northern England towns. So the ones who voted for it will also be the ones who will bear the biggest consequences. Especially in the agriculture area which a lot of these areas live with, it will be a total catastrophe. The governent has decided to impose a 30.000 pounds yearly income threshold, for any new foreign worker to enter the country which means that there will be NO seasonal workers who pick their fruits and crops, a job that the British find beneath them or not worth to do it themselves when living by benefits is better. A lot of factories too, have already moved out of the country or closed or are in a wait to see approach because if there are trade tarrifs then it's better to altogether move to Slovakia or Poland.
The main reason why some people are afraid of a hard Brexit is that it likely kills the EU altogether and those people are more concerned with the well being of the EU than the best interests of the UK.
Teresa May wrote an article today to emphasize that the credibility of British democracy is on the line and that the Brexit vote must be respected. Britain faces most momentous moment since the War But if Parliament does not come together and back this deal in our national interest we risk leaving with no deal, with all the uncertainty for jobs and security that will bring. Or, with MPs unwilling to face the uncertainty of no deal and with no other offer on the table, we will risk not leaving the European Union at all. You, the British people, voted to leave. And then, in the 2017 General Election, 80 per cent of you voted for MPs who stood on manifestos to respect that referendum result. You have delivered your instructions. Now it is our turn to deliver for you. When you turned out to vote in the referendum, you did so because you wanted your voice to be heard. Some of you put your trust in the political process for the first time in decades. We cannot – and must not– let you down. Doing so would be a catastrophic and unforgivable breach of trust in our democracy. So my message to Parliament this weekend is simple: it is time to forget the games and do what is right for our country. {More at the link} Make no mistake, there is no deal to be had that can pass both the UK Parliament and that will be supported unanimously by all 27 countries in the EU. If the deadline date is postponed, then it is all probability that Brexit is not going to happen, at least not in spirit and in truth. The Tuesday vote on May's negotiated deal with the EU is almost certain to fail, and in it appears that it should, as it is not a good enough deal for the people of the UK. In trying to find a very difficult pathway to a mutually agreeable solution, it appears that to much was conceded to the EU. It is my sense that PM May knows this and knew that this would be the result from early on. But she did not want to be the one to tap out of the Brexit deal negotiations with the EU, so the process is continuing, broken and unfixable though it may be at this point. That is OK. So far, so good. Nothing else needs to happen for the UK to exit on schedule on March 29, 2019 - 77 days from today. What is needed here is a "No-deal" Brexit, which PM May refers to in her article quoted above. What the byzantine combination of parliamentary and political procedures are that protects this outcome at this point is not clear to me. But one way or another, this is major history in the making what it happening in the next few weeks in Great Britain. Teresa May is right when she says that 'Britain faces most momentous moment since the War'. I hope and pray that they get this right. And getting it right means exiting the EU with 'No deal,' on schedule on March 29, 2019, without delay.
There is zero chance they intentionally crash their economy with a no-deal exit. It would be one of the UK's darkest moments in history. If they can't come up with a deal now, they'll delay until they can figure out a solution later. The British Pound has already lost something like 20-30% of it's value against the US Dollar and Euro since Brexit was announced, meaning Brits are far poorer than they were just a few years ago - it would drop dramatically more if no-deal is a potential endgame.
Just because the slight majority voted for leave it doesnt mean they voted for no deal. Thats just ridiculous. In fact Borris Johnson and others of his crowd, among the other lies they spewed pre referendum they promised a quick and easy deal with no tarrifs and obstacles on trade. Thats the exact opposite of no deal. If they have another referendum they should make sure to have multiple options for people to choose what specific option they prefer but so far every poll has shown that the no deal crowd is minuscule. How can it not be so when more and more details of the complete catastrophe no deal entails surface every day. MP Riggs Moggs head of the no deal crowd, managed to find only a single economist to support his claim that no deal is better off but even him was quickly discredited and ridiculed for his bad math. Then the MP had to go on tv and publicly admit that noone will be left alive when the UK in 50-70 years mayyy recuperate the damages and be better off with a no deal brexit.
I wonder if over in the UK hard right websites are encouraging right wingers to cheer on the Trump shutdown like they are here in the US with Brexit. You nutcases probably root for the Night King in Game of Thrones too. Geezus. Chaos and global uncertainty... yes!!!
Good for the UK parliament to vote down Theresa May's treasonous plan to become a vassal of the EU, now hopefully they manage either a no deal Brexit or a deal that would actually still be Brexit.
Freaking Corbyn like a vulture immediately tabled the no confidence vote. Instead of trying to solve the mess with national unity he is going against the will of his party and the national interest to fullfill his personal ambition in becoming PM. Anyway now postponing article 50 is certain.
What a mess. I get kinda tired though of the comparisons to our shutdown. Our Trump Shutdown here is so much more stupid. Not that Brexiting wasn’t a stupid thing for the British to seriously vote for, but the ramifications for not solving this and the hard path to solving. The Trump shutdown is over one mans whims to manufacture a crisis to cause poltical division for him to keep his minority base support for an election two years from now. Its the NFL kneeling thing with real people suffering this time. Maybe I’m just ignorant of Britain’s system and parliament but I really have no idea what the end looks like several weeks from now.
Brexit was a smart thing for the UK, but the problem was that they had the Brexit managed by a remainer who put the best interest of the EU ahead of the best interest of the UK so the only deal she was interested in making is one where the UK became a subservient vassal state of the EU. The fact that traitors terribly bungled the Brexit doesn't mean that the UK trying to stand up and retain their sovereignty was a bad idea. Also, I'm talking about actual treason, not the whiny nonsense that we hear from Democrats who are upset they lost elections. May literally attempted to sell out her country and strip them of their sovereignty. If she was lined up against the wall and shot it would be justice IMO.
