Roster Resource lists one year of options remaining, but gives no info on how much or little time he can spend in AAA. As far as the bench being fluid, Diaz and Stassi have 2/3 spots locked, pending trades. Jake is highly likely to start the year as the OF backup.
The 1.9 Million matters zero as Astros have to do that whether or not they option him. So you have one piece of evidence....which is probably right except it is likely Kemp vs. Marisnick for 4th OF. My original comment that started this mess is "I'm not 100% convinced Marisnick makes team out of camp." As such, one should take that as I think Marisnick is not a lock, but is still likely the 4th OF. The evidence presented here is not sufficient to say Marisnick is 100% on Astros roster out of camp. I count 26 people on 25-man roster if Marisnick is not optioned, Kemp isn't traded, and Astros have a 8-man pen. I'm guessing one of those three things (or something else) has to give. I'm not sure it will be Kemp.
So if Jake has 1 option left, he can be sent down until he acquires 5 years MLB service which he doesn't do in AAA. I don't disagree that Jake is highly likely to be the 4th OF. I'd peg it around 80%. Reaction to my earlier comment suggests Astros fans are hard wired to assume Marisnick is guaranteed a spot. Diaz is on bench. Not sure about Stassi as there is plenty of offseason left. I'm not sure there are only three spots. I doubt Astros want to give away Kemp which can be accomplished by either optioning Marisnick or going with 7-men in pen until Smith is back.
I am still convinced that adding Grandal would be by far more productive than adding Cruz: -It lets them keep both Tucker and White, both players who might be star level hitters for years to come. -There is no in-house long term option at catcher. There are many potential star DH options (Alvarez, Beer, Davis, etc.). -I would MUCH rather give up on Stassi than White or Tucker. 6-7-8-9 of Grandal-Gurriel-White-Tucker would be badass. Plus Alvarez can replace Gurriel when he’s ready to be David Ortiz 2.0.
Luhnow has publicly stated that Smith’s replacement will be filled internally. That seems pretty clear to me that he is saying we will use a picher to take his place on the roster.
Problem is the prospect package that has to be moved for Realmuto I think all of us realize Realmuto is the better player
I've never though Marisnick was guaranteed a spot, but I would be shocked if we break camp without him or Straw on the roster. If Tucker and Reddick are both on the team, then maybe you can survive without Marisnick or Straw. Both of them are sub par center fielders, but not a disaster. As long as Springer is available it's paletteable, but I don't really want George playing 150 games in CF. The difference in CF defense between Reddick and Marisnick is...significant, more than enough to offset the offensive difference. Kemp and Brantley are left fielders. Kemp isn't even good there. As of right now the lineup looks pretty cut and dry to me, and yes I assume we go with a 12 man pitching staff with a group of guys on the AAA shuttle. C Chirinos 1B Gurriel 2B Altuve SS Correa 3B Bregman LF Brantley CF Springer RF Reddick DH White C Stubbs/Stassi U Diaz OF Tucker OF Marisnick Kemp ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ FWIW I'm a big fan of Kemp, I would honestly prefer him to Reddick. But Reddick has a contract, and the defensive issues in CF are tough to overlook. Either give regular innings to a bad CF or we force Springer to log a lot of miles.
As the lineup current stands, I agree with you. Stassi will get the nod over Stubbs, simply because he has no options left. Stubbs will see a lot of time on the big league club, however, because catchers always sustain injuries. Tucker will start the year in AAA, unless we take a chance on him and ship Reddick to someone willing to take his salary. Tucker will barely get playing time as a 5th OF.
We would already have Realmuto if that were the case. MIAs price has been notoriously high. That ain’t the price.
I don’t think we had previously offered them White, or at least not until recently. Something changed after we added Brantley that brought us back to the table. White is my best guess.
Dollars to donuts, the Astros will break camp with 13 pitchers. I think one or two times last year they dropped down to 12 pitchers, but not for long.
This move makes a lot of sense. I suspect that the Astros have prioritized finding a ToR arm right now. After that trade, there will be a roster shuffle where Grandal and/or Cruz gets serious consideration.
I’ll go back to this again—which ToR pitcher is out there that will not gut our farm? We are looking for pieces that make sense for cost.
