I agree. Get the starter now and worry about everything else come the trade deadline. No way I give Nelson Cruz a 2 year deal. If Tucker is traded Reddick is staying and vice versa.
Well we agree on Tucker/Reddick. You can't have both and you can't have neither. I think Cruz on a 2 year deal would be a perfect setup for Alvarez to take over full-time in 2021. No signs of regression.
2018 ABs: Cruz 519, White 210. Career OPS: Cruz .860, White .777. Cruz 2018 OPS: .850. White 2018 OPS: .888. Cruz was right on point with his career ave. White was significantly above his short career ave. Now, White's MILB career OPS is .913 over 1893 ABs. If you think he can replicate this over his career, you are on the side that thinks highly of White. Then again, AJ Reed's career MILB OPS is .926.
Did anyone else see that Sabathia got a coronary stent? Dude is only 38 and he’s already having heart attacks
Cruz salary... 12-18 million? White salary... basically free My reasoning for not wanting to go 2 years on Cruz is pitching is going to be a major problem next off season. We already have 51 million tied up in Springer, Reddick, Brantley, and Yuli this year. That number will go up next year with Springer's arbitration raise being more than the decrease in Yuli's salary. Plus, Altuve gets the big raise, Correa will be on year two of arbitration and probably pushing 7-8 million , Bregman on year 1 of arbitration will get 5 million plus, Osuna will be making 7-9 million, McCullers will be around 6-7, Devenski will push 3-4 million, Peacock will get 4 million . We need flexibility to sign pitching next year. We are losing McHugh, Cole, Verlander, Harris, Rondon, Smith, and Pressly. Arguably, everyone of those guys except Smith is underpaid for their market value. Even coming close to replacing those guys is huge $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
In order to stay competitive,we are going to have to use a lot of internal options in pitching. We may resign Cole or Verlander, but it's highly unlikely to be both. It's possible Reddick is off the books in 2019. The salary cap is also likely to go up. Back to my question: which starting pitcher are you willing to pay for now? I don't see the market value out there for one. Better to wait until the trade deadline. If there isn't a market for SP, and we can afford to make an acquisition, we need to get Cruz.
I'd check in on Matt Boyd from Detroit, in case they're shopping him. Any idea on what the cost may be? I like him, as I think he has great stuff, high upside, and a lot of untapped potential. He's a lefty (to balance the RH-heavy staff) with four years of control left, and showed improvement last year (his 4th in the big leagues). A trade to Houston reunites him with JV, who, along with Strom, can teach him a lot. With Joe Smith being out for at least the first half, this allows Peacock to stay in the bullpen. SP: JV, Cole, Boyd, McHugh, James RP: Osuna, Pressly, Rondon, Peacock, Devo, Harris, Valdez, other AAA guy Rolling with Peacock as a starter instead creates more holes in the bullpen, and suddenly the pitching staff looks weaker.
I don't think the cost for Boyd would warrant not shopping for Cruz. If we go via this type of path, it's prospects only that it will cost. I think Luhnow has made it clear we are definitely looking for an SP. I just don't think there is a market for another Cole type acquisition. More than likely, we are looking at a pitcher like Boyd--upside 4.00ish young player with more MLB experience than James or Valdez.
I can only tell you the pitchers that have been rumored to be possibly available and then a few other guesses.... Kluber, Syndergaard, Greinke, Bumgarner, Fulmer, Bundy, Cobb, Minor, Duffy, Trevor Williams, Kyle Gibson, Robbie Ray Some of those guys have significant salaries and some won't be available until the deadline. Would a Cruz signing prevent us from acquiring one of them at the deadline? Don't know the answer to that. I know everyone loves the idea of moving Reddick, but you would be relying on Tucker, hurting our defense, and according to Nook you will have to eat some of Reddick's salary to get rid of him. Our lineup is stacked as it is and to me the success of the offense will be based on the health of Springer, Correa, and Altuve more so than adding a Cruz. So, like I said... a one year deal for Cruz I'm mildy interested... not on a 2 year deal for reasons I mentioned earlier.
Nook, what do u think the chance of either JV and/or Cole will sign with us next year? I don’t think neither will. If both guys have another year like they did this past season, JV could ask for 3Y/75M+ (doable) but Cole will be asking for the moon and the stars in FA. For this reason, I wouldn’t mind trading Tucker for a #1 SP to anchor 2020 pitching staff. Kluber would be one come to mind but I think it will take a lot more to get Clev to make that trade. As fun as we have with Bauer, I wouldn’t mind a trade for him if we think Cole is too expensive. I’m not sure Greinke is the guy either but he would be a great #3 this year.
Kluber and Syndergaard are way out of range. They would gut our best prospects to land them, and in turn add $ that would impact us several years down the road. We've explored Greinke to no avail, and I agree that Bumgarner won't be available until July (if SF is out of the race). I could see some of the other players as trade targets. More than likely, we look for a bargain value SP like Morton, and seek a Bumgarner player at the deadline. As long as we leave room for a bargain SP, I'd like to see us maximize our dollar with the offense. There are not that many opportunities to add a player like Cruz.
Bumgarner, Fulmer, Boyd, Holland, Bundy, Duffy, Taillon, Stroman, Trev Williams, Cobb, K Gibson... whoever Strom and Hinch and the Nerd Cave want to get, ala Cole.
What I would say is look at the teams in the history of the Astros where they actually had a legit shot at winning the World Series. 1986 it was Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, Bob Knepper. In 1998 it was Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton, Shane Reynolds, and Jose Lima. In 2004 it was Clemens, Oswalt, Miller, Pettitte. In 2005 it was Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt. In 2017 it was Verlander, Keuchel, Morton, McCullers. In 2018 it was Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, Morton. Those are by far the best teams the Astros have had with a legit shot at winning. The Astros have had massive offensive seasons in the Bagwell and Biggio days. Until they had the pitching it was 1st round and out over and over again and mostly to the Braves and their crazy pitching. 2017 everything was rolling with a historic offense and elite pitching in the playoffs. Pitching wins.
I agree with some of that. But we aren't getting a Ryan, Scott, Johnson, Hampton, Oswalt, Pettitte, Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers or Cole. The best available for what we can afford will likely be less than a McHugh. That is, until the trade deadline when we can get a rental. Also, it's not always a Ryan or Clemens that comes through during the playoffs. The Red Sox won b/c of a resurgent Price, a redhot Eovaldi, timely pitching from Porcello, and a shut-down pen. Sale pitched a total of 5 innings in the WS.They also won b/c they scored 8, 4, 9 and 5 runs in their 4 wins. They lost the game in which they only scored 2. Also, recall the WS we won in 2017. In the 4 games we won, we scored 7, 5, 13 and 5 runs. Hitting matters.
