Altuve's salary is incredibly backloaded and adds about 14 million more (23 something total) for tax purposes (MLB does not allow teams to backload contracts to avoid tax) vs what he is paid. Verlander is about a 3 million tax deduction. I expect Reddick is gone. Maybe Gurriel if Astros get Cruz.
I don’t think we’re gonna cut $26 million in payroll. To eliminate those players would be counterproductive when the goal has been to upgrade the offense.
I am surprised Chen hasn’t been mentioned in any Realmuto rumors. I think he’d be a decent fit for Houston if it meant they could get Realmuto without giving up Tucker or Whitley. He has $35M/2yrs which is WAY underwater. I think JBB, Fisher, and Cionel Perez for Realmuto and Chen would be fair.
It would certainly knock out two birds with one stone. In order for it to make sense for our budget, I think we also send them Reddick. I think they would probably want Kemp as well. Those moves would also help us set up an opening for Cruz.
Cruz is much better than Gurriel at hitting. Brantley is better than Reddick at hitting (but lose some defense). I don't see replacing guys by better hitters with similar salaries as counterproductive. I still think Astros want another SP.
I really just want one starting pitcher. I would give up Tucker in a trade for Kluber or Syndegaard. Otherwise, give me someone like Cobb, Bundy, Gibson, Fulmer, Greinke, etc. I would only take Cruz on a 1 year deal for less than 15 million. The health of Altuve, Correa, and Springer will have the biggest impact on how potent our offense will be. I prefer to leave flexibility in terms of keeping prospects and cap space for the trade deadline.
At this point there isn’t going to be in SP 1 coming our way. More realistically, we’re going to pick up a project like chen. If that’s the best case scenario going into the season at pitching, it makes sense to focus on upgrading the offense more.
Projections in RC+ Brantley 119 Reddick 109 Advantage Brantley Cruz 132 Gurriel 109 Advantage Cruz Diaz 105 Marwin 104 Push White 113 Gattis 105 Advantage White While these additions are more marginal, incremental, small (with exception being Cruz vs Gurriel), overall you are talking about a 11% weighted average improvement at LF, DH, 1B, and utility. Goldsmith alone would have added a 7% weighted average improvement at LF, DH, 1B, and utility. As such, these 3 moves and 1 potential move should be viewed as helping offense more than only adding Goldsmith. I think Goldsmith would improve the offense. Edit:If you like Marwin more than the projections at say the average of his 2017 and 2018 RC+s, that combined number is still 8%.
Where I disagree with you is not with last year’s numbers. Obviously Cruz And Brantley outperformed all of these guys last year. I disagree with you because of three things: loss of depth, loss of versatility, and The likelihood that all of our regressers last year revert back upward a fairly decent amount. Last year we had the fortune of players like white, Kemp and Jake having options coming out of AAA. This year we don’t have that good fortune. If we add players like Brantley and Cruz, but get rid of players like Gurriel, Reddick, and Kemp our team is worse not better.
Welcome to the Astros future. Replacing talent that is leaving will be a greater and greater challenge moving forward. After the 2019 season, we got Cole, JV and McHugh.
Those numbers are projections for this year. Cruz, Brantley, White numbers are regressed down. Reddick, Marwin, Gattis, Gurriel, and DIaz's numbers are regressed up. So your third point has already been taken into account. As far as depth goes, only 25 men are allowed on the active roster. These changes do not affect options such that 40-man roster other than 25 man roster changes. As such, depth is not changed. We can't add players to 25 man roster and not subtract. Someone has to go. If you want Gurriel and Reddick, that means Kemp and White go and Astros don't have 23 million dollars to upgrade elsewhere. Astros have 2 of the best OF prospects in AAA. They still have Davis. I don't understand your depth comment at all. Do you think MLB will let Astros run with a 27 man active roster? Or maybe you think Gurriel/Reddick are worth so much more than White/Kemp that you will forsake being able to add elsewhere to the roster. That $23 million in payroll flexibility would be nicen (most this would go to pay for Cruz though). On versatility, Diaz is a better middle IF than Marwin defensively. Brantley can play 1st. Diaz probably won't be as good a LF as Marwin. Improved IF vs not having a 5th OF seems close to a push from me. Maybe slightly worse if you like Gurriel at multiple positions (I do not). Overall, I think OF is better with Brantley/Tucker or Kemp than Reddick/Marwin. IF is better defensively with Diaz. Astros will be slightly less versatile, but have better players such that they don't need to be as versatile. Without Cruz, Astros are projected at being about 5% better offensively and about 5 WAR better for position players than last year.
Of course we only have 25 people on the active roster. I’m talking about depth for injuries of course. Last year we had several ready at hand players that could replace injuries at the MLB level effectiveIy. All of theses peices are out of options. Tucker has yet to prove himself at the MLB level. Counting on him as a reliable replacement for Reddick is very dicey. You got to take projections with a grain of salt. Nobody ever meets their projections precisely and very often they are off by a significant amount. Yes, I would much prefer that we keep Reddick and Gurriel and offload white and Kemp , thereby keeping the $23 million in play. I don’t trust Kemp nor White to sustain their production over a very short period of time from last year.
Ok so here’s the deal: Astros get: C JT Realmuto ($50M surplus value) SP Wei-Yin Chen (-$25M surplus value) RP Drew Steckenrider ($20M surplus value) Marlins get: RHP JB Bukauskas ($20M) RHP Corbin Martin ($20M) OF Josh Reddick (-$5M) OF Tony Kemp ($5M) C Max Stassi ($5M) 3B Abraham Toro ($5M) Resulting Astros roster: CF Springer LF Brantley 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa C Realmuto (+$7M) 1B Gurriel DH White RF Tucker Bench: Diaz, Chirinos, Marisnick Rotation: Verlander, Cole, McHugh, James, Chen (+$4M when factoring Reddick) Bullpen: Peacock, Diekman (+$2M), Devenski, Harris, Rondon, Steckenrider, Pressly, Osuna Optioned: Stubbs, Reed, Davis, Straw, Fisher, Armenteros, F Valdez, C Perez, Rodgers, Deetz, Guduan, Abreu, 3 spots for callups and optionable waiver claims 60 Day DL: McCullers, Martes, Smith
I’d be good with this if we also signed Cruz. I’m willing to take a chance on Tucker if we can lengthen The lineup with a reliable DH. I doubt we take on their RP though.
Yes, projections are going to have error, but I'd rather bet on 80% chance of being right than 20%. What is in minors now is irrelevant as it doesn't change based on what we are talking about. Keeping Reddick, Gurriel, and signing Cruz means the Astros are likely done with roster changes (and probably can't sign Cruz). It means Peacock/McHugh/James are the back three SPs. Whitley is fine as the 6th start. Teams usually use about 10-12 starters as SPs usually get hurt. Get ready for huge helpings of Armenteros, Deetz, Rodgers as Astros won't have resources to add someone else. So as far as trusting Kemp/White, it is more that Armenteros, Deetz, Rodgers scare me as anything more than emergency call ups.
If you read my other posts, you’d see that I am fine with dishing out Reddick and taking on a player like Chen if we also signed Cruz. I’m also fine with starting Tucker in right field if we are able to add cruz and link in the lineup. I’m not ok with getting rid of Gurriel and Reddick.
So canceling...Let's remove Chen, Steckenrider, and Reddick as that is just money obscuring the true trade. Realmuto for Bukauskas, Martin, Kemp, and Toro I'm guessing Astros would do that, though I am unsure on Martin. Prospect valuations would have him pegged at the $20M number you suggests. Based on K%, BB% in AA, I think there is a very good chance Astros like Martin a lot more than prospect handbooks. On the flip side, Marlins don't seem the type to like guys like Martin and want the shiny prospect.
Profar to Oakland. Rangers get prospects, Rays get RP and draft pick. Rays having a very good offseason.
