Possibly, but all it takes is one injury for him to become a full-time player. Bregman, Correa, and Springer all were major contributors within a year of being called up. I think it really depends on whether Tucker's struggles this past season changed the front office's view of him - a year ago at this time, they were hoping he could be a major contributor in 2018.
Because that's all they are getting specifically out of a trade. Unless he signs an extension early (fewer players seem to do that these days), then the Astros could still acquire 2021 Realmuto as a free agent without trading for him for whatever they'd sign him for anyway.
Yep, zero reason, except: -Cole, Verlander, McHugh, Pressly, Peacock, Rondon, Smith, Harris, Chirinos, Springer, Reddick, Brantley, and Marisnick all gone in free agency. -Correa, Bregman, Diaz, McCullers, Osuna, and Devenski all getting more expensive in arbitration. -Gurriel and Altuve getting older and declining. Basically, by 2021, Tucker, White, Stassi, James, Whitley, Perez, and Valdez are the only players on the current roster expected to be cheap, experienced, and capable. It’s not a guarantee that a rebuild will be in order; if they have guys pan out there’s plenty of reason to believe they can keep it going. But there’s plenty of reason to be worried that the current run may be over in 2 years.
I dont think so either. I'm just wondering if, heaven forbid, things dont work out in the next few years will they go the Marlins route and rip the band aid off quick, or go the SF Giants route and settle into years of mediocrity.
Seems like a lot, but I guess the upside is there. Angels are an ace (Keuchel?) and a C (Lucroy?) away from not having any real weaknesses. Heaney-Triggs-Harvey-Canning is a pretty good 2-5 rotation. They’ve got an underrated bullpen (although it currently depends on several young arms). Bour-Fletcher-Simmons-Cozart-Calhoun-Trout-Upton is a damn good set of position players. They should spend big now not only because of Trout, but because they can take solace knowing they’ll be getting a big addition near the deadline without having to make a move, due to Ohtani coming back.
Why would the Astros.... rebuild (?) in 3 years? Altuve + Bregman, Correa, MCullers & Osuna are in arbitration. That core + Whitley and Tucker (and any other additions/promotions) isn’t likely rebuilding, especially if Tucker is on the higher end 2.5-4 WAR. Luhnow is building a sustainable model.
Altuve declining in 2 years? That’s a bad prediction. There will be lots of graduations and acquisitions by then as well. It’s an evolving machine.
I think they should make their big free agent signings next year when Ohtani can pitch again and Cole, Verlander, Sale, Bumgarner, Arenando, Rendon, and Goldschmidt are free agents. I think paying Keuchel would be dumb with the pitchers that should be available next year. Keuchel isn't an ace anymore. There could be 3 or 4 legit aces available next off season. I wonder at what point do they just move Pujols to the front office. He is so banged up.
I listen mostly on the Astros board, because you guys are both knowledgeable and entertaining. I was a basketball/football guy, and just never had the hand-eye coord to hit a ball well. With that said, I took my wife to watch the team play the Rockies this year and that was the game Tucker ripped a triple in the 10th inning to help blow the game open. I think the kid will be fine, like he said in another article, he got to the big show and was a bit in awe of everything. I doubt he'll be the next Ted Williams, but if he can hit 280-300 avg and 25-30 HRs, then that's a great OF to build with Bregs and Tuve. I like Realmuto and I just think adding him would make a big difference to our pitching staff and our line up. I'm hoping our GM can find a package that can get them to bite without including one of our Big 3 prospects or a couple of others I'd like to see in Houston (Beer, Martin, James, etc). 3-5 guys from this mix below could be a pretty awesome return with our deep system. I left Beer (gotta love his name), Nova, and Martin off in our top 10, but they could certainly be added to the mix. James and Valdez both showed 4-5 rotation potential in the small end of regular season sample. A package of James (#6 prospect), Bukauskas (#4), Stassi or Stubbs (#16), Kemp or Fisher, and then Davis or Reed would give them 4 guys ready for to compete for jobs and one guy fairly close. I love for us to find opportunities for Stassi, Kemp, Fisher, Davis and Reed (and get some return). I'm probably way off on what Miami wants, but after getting Brantley and hearing we're back in the mix I couldn't help myself. Pitchers Bryan Abreu R/R 6'1" 175lbs 4/22/97 Rogelio Armenteros R/R 6'1" 215lbs 6/30/94 Dean Deetz R/R 6'1" 195lbs 11/29/93 Reymin Guduan L/L 6'4" 205lbs 3/16/92 Josh James R/R 6'3" 206lbs 3/8/93 Francis Martes R/R 6'1" 225lbs 11/24/95 Cionel Perez L/L 5'11" 170lbs 4/21/96 Framber Valdez L/L 5'11" 170lbs 11/19/93 JB Bukauskas R/R, 10/11/96 Catchers # Name B/T Ht Wt DOB Max Stassi R/R 5'10" 200lbs 3/15/91 Garrett Stubbs L/R 5'10" 175lbs 5/26/93 Infield # Name B/T Ht Wt DOB J.D. Davis R/R 6'3" 225lbs 4/27/93 AJ Reed L/L 6'4" 275lbs 5/10/93 Outfield # Name B/T Ht Wt DOB Derek Fisher L/R 6'3" 205lbs 8/21/93 Tony Kemp L/R 5'6" 165lbs 10/31/91 Myles Straw R/R 5'10" 180lbs 10/17/94 Alex McKenna R/R 9/6/97
Realmuto only has two years of club control left. After that, he's a free agent and Astros can try to sign him without trading for him. He has expressed interest in testing free agency so there is minimal chance for an extension. As such, Astros would be trading for 2 years only.
Technically, he has expressed a desire to escape the Marlins via Free Agency. Not sure he wouldn’t agree to an extension via trade. That remains to be seen.
Even then, the chance to sign a player to an extension should be valued low as extensions this close to free agency are not much of a discount. The value in trading for Realmuto should be based on two years.
Yeah; I would have to think the Astros likely value Realmuto as a 2-and-done player and - if truly interested - are likely building their offer around that scenario. Of course, Miami doesn't care about that; they're focused on his present-day value, which is very high. How close the Astros can get Miami to see it their way is, I would imagine, at the center of their negotiations.
If we are going to cash in on Tucker's value now by trading him, I'm doing it for a certified ace. Give me either Kluber or Thor. I understand that the Indians are probably good on their salary now, making a trade now less likely. I also understand that Thor comes with a pretty big injury risk. But heading into a 7 game playoff series with a three-headed monster of Verlander, Kluber/Thor, and Cole is very appealing to me. As tempting as Realmuto is, and I've been hoping that we trade for him for the last two years, I think looking at our roster in totality, an ace would have a bigger impact.
I agree. I'm not sure if Thor will be available either. I never believed the Indians would trade Kluber and especially not to an American League contender. I think there will be some pitchers available at the deadline like Bumgarner and maybe Thor if the Mets aren't as good as their GM thinks they are. I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros land Bundy or Cobb from Baltimore before the season. Then see where they are at the deadline and go for one of the big name pitchers available at that point. Cobb had a 2.42 ERA the last 2 months of the season.
I like Cobb as a target. The upside is there, and his contract is large enough as to not require giving up good prospects but not so large as to be an albatross. I would think Baltimore would give him up for a middling MLB ready SP prospect (like Armenteros or Framber Valdez) if Houston was willing to take on most or all of the contract. But Elias may prefer to bet on a rebound from Cobb; with a stellar 1st half he could potentially bring back a lot more at the deadline or next offseason.
A catcher’s value is based on so many things beyond just hitting. If the Astros think Realmuto makes the difference we need to have WS level success, go for it.
Why can't the Astros retain some of those free agents? Why is Altuve declining so much at the age of 31? It just seems like you're making a LOT of assumptions here that seem like stretches. In 2021, they'll still have a core of Altuve, Bregman and Correa. Verlander is probably off the books, so you can afford to pay Springer and Cole more money. Reddick leaving also clears up more cap space for other guys. And we have no clue what some of their top tier talent in the minors will do. What if Tucker and Whitley reach their potential in two years? It's just way, way too early to assume that Houston will be in rebuilding mode in two years. There will still be a boatload of talent on the team, and Lunhow has done a pretty good job of retaining the guys that needed to be retained to keep this team a contender. I see no reason to think that will be any different two years from now.
Rumor has it Washington offered Robles at one point last year when their playoff odds were shrinking and Miami turned it down. Miami felt they had all the leverage. Robles looked great in his late season call up. How do you tell your boss, "We didn't really want Robles. Sure he went 6 for 12 against us with a double and a couple of homers. He only hit great against other teams. Who needs a a good defensive center-fielder that can hit? We can get JB Bukauskas. He throws hard and Luhnow says sweet things about him."
I agree, and I have never said that a catcher's value is based solely on just hitting. My opinion doesn't change though. If given the option, I still take add an ace over Realmuto.
