Still a ton of players left in free agency who would likely improve Houston’s roster: Stars probably out of Houston’s price range: Bryce Harper Dallas Keuchel Yasmani Grandal AJ Pollock Craig Kimbrel Manny Machado (not reasonable) Outfielders who would simply slot in as the everyday LF: Michael Brantley Nelson Cruz (would mostly DH but I think would be fine playing 50 games in LF) Carlos Gonzalez Nick Markakis Adam Jones Avisail Garcia Curtis Granderson Infielders who could probably be fine in LF or could force Gurriel to LF: Mike Moustakas Daniel Murphy Brian Dozier Jed Lowrie Marwin Gonzalez DJ LeMahieu Josh Harrison Wilmer Flores Asdrubal Cabrera Troy Tulowitzki Neil Walker Logan Morrison Potential NRIs who could earn the everyday LF job in spring: Alex Dickerson Matt Joyce Melky Cabrera Jose Bautista Hunter Pence Logan Forsythe Catchers who might be better than Stassi/Chirinos: Jonathan Lucroy Matt Wieters Martin Maldonado SP who would be fine as BoR insurance: Anibal Sanchez Trevor Cahill Jaime Garcia Brett Anderson Matt Harvey Clay Buchholz Mike Fiers Gio Gonzalez Drew Pomeranz Wade Miley Nathan Karns Matt Shoemaker Derek Holland Cheap/NRI SP who could earn a rotation spot in spring: Martin Perez Ervin Santana Doug Fister Francisco Liriano Marco Estrada Jason Hammel Jeremy Hellickson Bartolo Colon Yovani Gallardo Edwin Jackson James Shields Shelby Miller Solid RP: David Robertson Andrew Miller Adam Ottavino Joakim Soria Zack Britton Cody Allen Kelvin Herrera Brad Brach AJ Ramos Cheap/NRI RP: Justin Wilson Jake Diekman Carson Smith Greg Holland
Of this list, how many guys would improve Astros by more than 1 WAR? What is the cost of that improvement? I figure Brantley probably improves Astros by slightly more than 1 WAR this upcoming season (~1.3 fWAR), and probably a negligible amount for any additional years. Let's say he improves Astros by 0.5 WAR each year for 2 additional years after next season. He's likely going to cost about $45 million over 3 years. Would the Astros be willing to spend $45 million for 2.3 wins spread over three years?
If we can somehow dump Reddick (perhaps we eat around $5M) then I think it’s worth it...otherwise I’m not sure it is.
Yes, the vast majority of those players are only marginal improvements over Kemp, White, Stassi, Framber Valdez, and Cionel Perez (the last in guys on the roster who would be displaced by any additions). In fact, there’s a very sound argument to be made that Harper, Keuchel, Grandal, Pollock, and Kimbrel are the only remaining free agents who would likely provide a meaningful improvement in 2019, especially if you hold an optimistic view of Houston’s young players. I’m not privy to asking prices, scouting reports, and analytics, so it’s hard to say who they should go after. But based on what’s out there, I’m either going big (Harper, Grandal) or going low risk (upside 1 year guys who can be released without consequence if they don’t work out). Obviously the trade market has a huge impact on things as well.
2 for $32MM is an absolute steal. Brantley fits perfectly in either the #2 or #5 slot. Would love to add Cruz next and really lengthen the lineup.
(Brantley + Chirinos + Diaz) > (Marwin + McCann/Maldonado + Gattis) I’m satisfied even if they don’t do anything else on offense. They’ve improved. Was hoping for more at catcher but understand that they didn’t like Ramos, and Grandal/Realmuto are likely too expensive. Now go get a good SP and call it a day. My guess is Houston has between $20M and $40M left to spend.
As soon as my MLBTR alert notified me that we are nearing a deal with Brantley, I told myself that anything less than 3/$50M would be good. If it actually is the rumored 2/$32, then that's a steal in my humble opinion. When healthy, this is a very solid baseball player, a professional hitter from the left side.
Nightengale still saying they’re also close with Nelson Cruz. Depends on cost but man what a lineup: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa DH Cruz LF Brantley 1B Gurriel RF Reddick C Chirinos Bench: Diaz, Stassi, Marisnick Also leaves room to flip Tucker for Realmuto or salary dump Reddick, sign Grandal and insert Tucker in RF. No matter what else they do I think this is the deepest lineup in Astros’ history.
Brantley is what I wanted for Xmas Perfect fit for what we want to do out in LF. Add Cruz (with or without trading Reddick), Astros fans couldn’t be more ecstatic with what Luhnow did with the offense this offseason. If we can add Cruz, I’m fine with JV, Cole, McHugh, Valdez, James, and Whitley as SP until trade deadline. 2017 offense was fun. 2018 was tough to watch.
I think they still have to do something in the rotation before opening day, even if it’s just a low cost BoR guy. Don’t want to go into the season counting on 400+ innings from James, Whitley, Valdez, Perez, and Martin.
I don’t view Peacock as a realistic option in the rotation. At least not unless there are issues with some of the guys I listed.
