Sky is Falling Fan here, reporting for duty: When the Astros picked up Gerrit Cole in mid January that was great, but the Astros already had four starters locked up. The Astros only have two dependable, experienced starters right now. The catcher position is thin, especially on defense. The current lineup does not stack up with the Yankees, or Red Sox. Another bat is needed. A number of once promising prospects like AJ Reed and Derek Fischer have lost a lot of value and have no obvious roster spots. There is no gurantee that the Astros will retain Verlander and Cole after 2019. The Astros front office has been decimated. Having said all this, Luhnow deserves to be trusted and there are a lot of players available that can help the team. They still have a great bullpen, lineup and farm system.
I get Harper is elite talent but $30 million plus per year isn't happening here. Why not Nelson Cruz? His price tag for a 2 year deal would make a ton of sense. Give him 600AB and get 100RBI in this line up easy. Save short term and long term.
According to Fangraphs valuations, Astros got ~$160MM gross value from their farm system not counting guys past arbitration (e.g., Altuve) and guys used to acquire guys like Verlander and Cole. The amount of value gained by the prospects that have gained value after making the majors has greatly outweighed the losses.
Per Fangraphs, Astros are currently below average at C (18th; Chirinos did not improve that standing), 1B (22nd), and LF (17th based on Kemp getting the majority of the PA). So those are the 3 areas the stats say they should be focused on next week. They’re 12th in RF, with every other position being in the top 10 in the league. Their rotation ranks 5th, although Verlander and Cole obviously account for an inordinate amount of that. I’d be ok with them adding 2 2nd tier bats (McCutchen and Murphy) and 1-2 upside SP (Miley, Pomeranz, etc.) and calling it a day. That’d give them a ton of payroll flexibility and prospects to be much more aggressive at the deadline, when they’ll have a better idea of their needs, and when other contenders may have shot their wad this offseason and not be able to bid as much. Or they could sign Harper and Morton, and trade for Realmuto, Kluber, and Abreu. Whichever Luhnow thinks is best.
The team needs one more starter to go with Verlander, Cole and McHugh. I am hoping they sign Happ and Morton. One more bat, and there are several good ones out there. Catcher is the one position that is hard to read. I like the signing of Chirinos, he gives the team an average MLB catcher at the very least. This will be the position to keep an eye on. I am optimistic there is a trade coming at some point, just not sure what position they go for. This is a fun time of year..
How funny would it be if STL falls out of the race by the deadline, Goldy is uninterested in a long term deal there, and we get Goldy for even less in July. CHC and MIL in the central, and the teams out west and east are gearing up...unlikely but possible
A lot less since instead of a one year rental, he would then be a 3-4 month one. Very different if we got a eye wink deal to resign him.
I wonder how badly the Cardinals want to get rid of Dexter Fowler. Coming off injury and bad BABIP luck. I liked him when he was an Astro. Could also be a unique way for Houston to add to their farm. Doubt Stl would need to do it though. Astros get: OF Dexter Fowler OF Dylan Carlson 1B Luken Baker RHP Griffin Roberts $15M Cardinals get: 2B/OF Tony Kemp
I would be content if Luhnow could make the following moves... Sign Brantley 3-45mil Sign Cruz- 2-30mil Trade for Cervelli from Pittsburgh it’s said they have interest in Cionel Perez, throw in Derek Fisher or A.J. reed Sign Happ 3-40mil Springer-cf Bregman-3b Altuve-2b Correa-ss Cruz-dh Brantley-lf Yuli-1b Cervelli-c Tucker-rf Verlander,cole,Happ,mchugh, James eventually Whitley Some roster decisions and moves will have to be made especially if we sign another outfielder. Between kemp, marisnick and reddick someone will be the odd man out maybe two of them.
100% of the player lose their ability to hit at 38 years old. There is a risk of course. Every player is a risk. But much like when Beltran was 38 Cruz is STILL stroking actually even better.
That is probably more salary than the Astros are comfortable adding, and no way Happ only gets 3-40 mil. I would be interested in Jose Abreu but the White Sox always want an overpay for everything. He should be cheaper than Goldschmidt since he will be more expensive and isn't as good. Nelson Cruz scares me on a 2 year deal. I would rather over pay a little for a 1 year deal. I like Brantley but wonder if he is what the Astros are looking for. I think they want a bigger power bat like Cruz/Abreu. I would be surprised if the Astros add another catcher. I don't see Chirinos being a nearly 6 million dollar back up.
I believe fangraphs is a great source. Having said that, their rankings have had issues. For example the Astros are better at catcher right now than they were at the end of the season. Chirinos is not a guaranteed out. That is a lot to ask and while I think it is likely that the Astros by September have filled all those holes, I don't see it happening all at once.
Anyone interested in Trevor Baur and Jason Kipnis for Joe Smith, J.B., Tony Kemp, Framber Valdez and Jolio Solis
