Interesting comparison. I've read a lot about that election, and it totally shocked the country and especially the party when LBJ said, in essence, screw this crap, I'm out. I don't think 45 has that gear in his DNA, no matter how uncomfortable things get. He's already done record fundraising for being 2 years out already, right?
Well that is true; I think any GOP President with a Republican Congress could accomplish a tax cut and Supreme Court nominees are a result of luck and timing tbh. Long term Trump may hurt the party (or not he may have completely convinced two generations of blue collar whites to be a new stable base of the GOP)
Yeah @Air Langhi no doubt about that, Trump did do that, but I don't think that is something that Rubio or Cruz or Jeb Bush couldn't have done. I think he's done a lot more harm to conservatism than anyone else would have. This was a strong wave election and he lost a lot of key places for Republicans. California GOP wiped out and Arizona has a democratic senator. Kansas has a democratic governor, many state elections also just flipped and turned blue. I think Rubio or Bush could have done everything Trump has done in the SCOTUS and with taxes but without garnering the unfavorability that Trump has
I think he has the 2020 primary in the bag. He has an incumbency advantage in the general, though who knows what the economy and other factors will be. But for the primary, it's been 150+ years since an incumbent didn't win his primary. And Trump probably won't have any trouble on that. That said, I intend to vote in the Republican primary in 2020 (they need my help!) and I will vote for almost any yahoo that wants to primary Trump.
If it didn't have such a corrosive effect on our democracy, I would want trump to run again. Unless the Democratic Party has completely lost it's mind, trump is dead meat in 2020. He has proven himself to be the worst president in modern American history. No question about it. We will elect a Democrat as president, hold the House by a decent margin, and take back the Senate in 2020. Thank you, Mr. trump, you asswipe.
Chris Coons. !? Yeah a complete unknown conservative "Dem" will win the Dem primary and beat Trump. lol At least I have heard his name. Is Wall Street backing the dude? What gives?
Agreed Trump is dead meat and the Senate will switch -- unless the Dems run a "safe" snoozer of a corporate Dem, which Wall Street and the well paid political consultants will push for. "No! Joe Biden will not do-- it even if he wears cool sun glasses. Maybe they can run Tim Kaine, who within another two years will be the tough trivia question of: "Who was Hillary's running mate?" After all Virginia is a swing state and he is not controversial and will allegedly appeal to moderates. Turnout is the key or it will get down to a hanging chad in Ohio or Florida and probably the GOP keeps the Senate. . Beto would have lost by the usual 15 points if he had played the corporate Dem's usual cautious game.
Coons is a principled and good man that would run a very positive campaign. He has a long history of working for and helping the poor. He is a moderate and a perfect contrast to Trump. A majority of this country isn’t radical right or radical left. Coons also does well among independents. As far as I know he doesn’t have the backing of Wall Street. He is smart and sincere. I never said Coons would win the Primary and never said he would be the nominee. I said he would have an excellent chance of beating Trump and would do very well in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan. Coons is very good at working across the aisle.
One thing I would question is his fat ass being able to all of the campaigning and from this point for that matter if he did do all of that and win. He would be in office still 6 years from this point. I just don't see good things. If I had to bet (only with having to choose one or the other) he will epically flame out in some spectacular way.
Reality show... but yeah I remember people said Regean couldn't be govenor because he was an actor. This is always a false argument.
More than that, he's pretty much dumbed down the entire movement. I mean REALLY dumbed it down. Like tweeting while taking a dump dumb. The GOP needs a complete reboot like the Astros did in 2011. Which is why I voted Democratic straight ticket this last time around for the first time since 1992. I wanted to send a message to every sellout Republican who supports him. Even the few that don't support him need to get the message too. I would have probably voted for Crenshaw, but I'm about 100 yards north of his district.
I talk to a relative who's business is talking to Billionaire's, he said the feeling is that once they've got their Supreme Court Judge and their tax breaks they don't want anything more to do with Trump. It seems like any chance conservatives have of re-capturing some moral high ground would take an unassailable character with true convictions. (the whiplash opposite of Trump)
I do this so I can get more moderate and reasonable Republican candidates. I fear the strategy of other crossover Democrats is to vote for the most extreme candidate on the theory that the Democrat could beat an extremist in a general election. I think 2016 demonstrates the folly of that thinking. Even with the rationale that some 'better candidate' could have won, look at the cost of failure! Man, pick up a couple of House seats and the irrational self-confidence returns! Don't start trusting in the wisdom of crowds again. This is still the country that elected Trump. And while there has been revulsion in some corners, Trumpism flowers in others. Democrats are still undisciplined about getting to the polls, and now that they've come to make their 'statement' in these midterms, they're liable to go back into hibernation. This election was pretty good news on gerrymandering because Democrats got back to a respectable 24 governorships and they will approve the new redistricting after the 2020 census -- but it won't start to matter until 2022. There are reasons for optimism, but let's hear no more of that obnoxious pre-2016 demographics-is-destiny Trump-can-never-win braggadocio. Trump can most certainly win again depending on what happens between now and November 2020.
I think Kasich is definitely running as an independent, I think he's building himself up to it. I think a socially liberal party that is conservative economically would win over a lot of conservatives that are fed up with Trump. Whatever gets people away from the Cult of Trump is fine by me.
As for Flake, I think it depends a lot on what happens with Trump. He has set himself up to be a hero if Trump is impeached and a goat if he's vindicated. If Mueller presents a gun so smoking that even a Republican Senate convicts, Flake could sweep in to say I told you so and be the moral leader of a penitent GOP. So his odds are about 1:1000.
Trump drove him out of the House, leading to the Dems gaining 40 seats there in 2018. he is too spineless / not stupid enough to return to DC; for one thing, he is making way too much $ as a lobbyist. assuming that he will not resign, or be impeached, my bet is that Trump will also drive turtle-face outta the Senate, paving the way for the Dems to be the majority in 2020
Which begs the question... how wouid we feel if Trump got re-elected by winning Mich and PA again but the Dems won Senate seats in red districts and had control of both chambers of Congress? Or the other scenario (which could be a Joe Biden type of scenario) where Biden wins with his favorability in the Midwest but poor turnout leads to losing both the house and senate. I’m not sure which would be better or worse.... prob Trump winning again I think which would basically create a lame duck 4 years of Trump weirdness.
