As you said this the 538 projections went up to 90% Dems for the house. The only thing left to find out now is what the GOP lead will be in the Senate.
Not going to the link just yet -- no offense at all -- but what would you object to in the statement: ignorance is easy. I think it just is. I sometimes employ it when I don't have the time or passion to look into something (like, well, clothing, sad to say). I don't always have the time to read a bunch on a topic and download the latest Frontline on a topic and make sure I triangulate multiple sauces. I do wish all Americans would find race-baiting and fear-mongering campaigns to be sad, but that's not where we are. We're in the age of the amygdala. Lord knows where that takes us next.
They retired because they were in toss up races didn't want to get their ass beaten, like their colleagues did. Dems are sweeping all of the legit toss up house races (or are only losing 1, if you count Kentucky) regardless if incumbent or not. Ask Roskam, Donovan, Brat if you dont believe me. But I'm sure it's a comforting story to tell yourself.
The Florida senate race is super close too. I read something this morning that both sides will find a lot to be happy about tomorrow.
Pretty much echoes my sentiments exactly . The next question is to determine how we can move forward as a country in the dialogue.
Want to talk "white privilege"? Let's talk about being arrested for burglary and drunken driving, and then thinking you can pull off a Texas senate win for the "let's talk about white privilege" party. The audacity! Blue wave? Been there, done that.
All this being said... make no mistake about it, the Dems winning back the House (IF THAT HAPPENS) would be a Huge deal. Everyone is upset about Florida and Georgia but it just can’t be stated enough that in the good economy, with the challenges with the media, and with such gerrymandered maps, taking back the House under those conditions would be a huge feat. One other big point- Texas and Florida will suddenly become incredibly interesting states in 2020. I think we are going to be seeing a lot more Trump here than some of us might like. Trump will need to drastically run up the score in rural areas to secure the state. In the suburbs with the “non-denominational” Christian conservatives, Ted Cruz is actually pretty damn popular, and much more popular than Trump at least in public. Those suburban Christians still support Trump, but don’t like to be public about it. I know cause I know plenty of them who make every excuse in the world to keep voting red. That public vs private support matters because that actually affects turnout. Interesting to say that least.
Conservative Christian here. Voted for Beto and my Dem Rep. Some of us have principles. Voting with my conscience over my political ideals.
I think the problem pretty much comes down to exactly what you said. It is both that most people do or say racist things and don't believe those are racist, and that there is kind of a scale on how racist things are. So many people that don't think their actions or words are racist here themselves being called racist and think they can't be racist because to them racist only means hating all minorities, or images of using fire hoses on marchers. Anything shy of that level of racism isn't really racism. So things that are at a 3 or 4 on my made-up racism scale don't count as really racist. Some of these are the "I can't be racist because I have black friends" racists. Of course, murderers are still murderers even though they didn't go next door and kill the family that lived their or everyone else in their neighborhood. Murderers don't murder everyone and racists don't have to hate all minorities or everyone of a certain race. Being racist can mean treating people of another race differently. It doesn't have to mean being an active KKK member or whatever. But if you believe that a black person walking on the sidewalk is scary and means that you should cross the street that is also racism. Believing that a black student is less likely to be a gifted learner than a white student is also racism. None of that type of racism is as bad as unleashing the dogs and clubbing peaceful protesters. But laying that low-level groundwork makes the harsher types of racism possible. I have no idea how to make that kind of connection or what to do to fix the problem. The more exposure, education and daily close interactions with minorities will help. I don't know how to cause that to happen though.
It’s not the red neck racists though. It’s the suburban conservatives. There are some like Darkhorse, but that’s pretty rare based on what I’ve seen talking to folks. Ted Cruz is safer for them to put a sign out in their yard for. Trump puts them in a much more uncomfortable situation. Not saying they won’t vote for him, but turnout will be key in 2020.
I agree so much. The national dialogue in race would increase 1000% in value if people would understand that racist behavior and prejudices occur on a spectrum, not a binary. Most people view it as a binary (either KKK or "I don't see color") and set the bar high enough to be sure they fit under it. There are tons of small unconscious prejudices that we all engage in (including liberals!) that go largely unnoticed, but which can add up to black/latino applicants being rejected for a job or a home, sentenced more often for longer periods, or a split-second decision about whether you feel endangered enough to pull the trigger on someone you fear. People who see racism as a binary feel that it must be a conscious prejudice, but it's far more insidious and difficult to discuss.
Awesome post . There's a lot to digest so I won't get to every part , but overall I agree and think there are a lot of good ideas . I think your last paragraph is the key . And I think that as much as we know a few things work ... we probably also know that going too far ... i.e. Demonizing things that are 1's and 2's on your scale .... is actually counterproductive. I think We kinda have to find a line and work from there . After all , to get to this communication and interaction that you've spoken of (and I agree is the key) people have to feel comfortable with each other . And if you know that people think you are a a racist ( and you disagree ) then you are going to shut yourself off from learning . And I think it goes both ways . Not only white people can be racist . we just need more connection and communication overall between people . The country is pretty divided , and in good times a lot of it gets swept under the rug because it's easy to ignore things and go on with life .
They are calling House control of Congress. Beto losing sucks but this is just amazing news for the country.
14/15 chance of Dems winning House according to 538. I don't trust CNN, at all. They've been the most Dem-positive all night. (Not sure who you were quoting!)
The economy does the best in split governments because they get so gridlocked they usually can't pass things to F it up. No more tax cuts for anybody, but no repeals either. Wall Street will be happy because we'll have a "known" quantity for at least 2 years (not much happening).
