Beto vs Ted

There was an update AFTER the 1500 reporting. That was still sub 60%. It jumped to 70% and Beto jumped ahead by a fair amount. Haven't seen any of the networks detail the counties yet so not sure how to interpret yet.

 

Beto running Harris County. So many votes with little counted.

 

Nate Silver
9:29 PM
Beto O’Rourke is holding into a slight lead in Texas, but it’s hard to know what to make of it, as a lot of it is based on early votes. Cruz is about a 3-to-1 favorite in betting markets.

 

Betoball

3 > midrange 2

 

lol
I am stunned it's this close this late.
Strangely, the Fox has dems at 81% chance to take the house, but 538 has them at 55%. Must be using very different models.

I haven't followed a Texas election in a long time. In other states, it's usually the populous urban areas that finish counting last and totals trend a little blue as they wind up. Is that the case in TX, or will some rural places report last?

 

Seems like all the major urban areas have reported.

 

Fox is projecting that the Dems take the House. The models do seem to be very different.

 

Democrats now basically need Beto to win just to have a chance to compete for the Senate in 2022.

 

but what does Bill Walton think ?

 

Now Fox has Cruz up 50 to 48.5, with 59% in. Texas is a light pink, LOL.

 

That’s about what politico is saying.

 

That’s not shocking, the Democrats we’re losing the senate and losing seats... getting the senate in 2022 was not likely either.

Their best bet all along has been to get the house majority and battle for the White House.

 

MSNBC has 73% of the vote in with Beto up by a few thousand votes.

 

whats taking so long? the lotto winning numbers are quicker than this

 

I doubt that .

How can that be ? The dems had to protect way more seats this year . Given that the senate was fairly even , wouldn't that mean that republicans have to defend more seats next election ?

 

It would be a pretty big update if Beto won. He was a 5-7 percent underdog.

 

So many seats on both sides just aren't vulnerable. Democrats really couldn't afford to get spanked in the Senate tonight. The goal for Dems was to survive in the Senate while maybe netting a loss of one seat tonight. Losing FL, Indiana and North Dakota and probably Missouri is a big hit. Republicans were prepared to lose FL and Indiana tonight.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020

So yeah, the GOP has to defend more seats in 2020 but look at the seats they have to win? That's the difference there.

I wouldn't look at 2020 right now honestly, it'd be like looking at the next NBA season, the political landscape can turn on a dime based on big events. Democrats need to win the house back desperately and a few governors races could help them in 2020 as well.

 

Democrats are going to cry a lot between now and 2020 because Trump is going to have an express lane in the Senate to get anyone through. There won't be any drama about any Senate only issues if this holds up.

 

I could be proven wrong, but I see this as ending up very close, whichever way it goes.