I think the idea is that most of it DOES get reflected in ERA, WHIP, and W-L. If you are playing awesome defense, you're getting outs or preventing runners from advancing where other pitchers aren't. As a result, you're lowering your own ERA/WHIP, which should improve your W-L. Reducing unearned runs also should reflect in W-L record. So the idea is that his stats already account for the fact that part of his results come from his defense. If he wasn't as good a defender, his other numbers would theoretically be worse.
I think we're all way past the idea that W-L is a real indication of value in 2018. A pitcher has no control over the amount of run support they get. For a better valuation, look at WAR leaders for the Astros in 2018 and you'll see Keuchel 5th, behind Bregman, Altuve, Verlander and Cole. That's 12th overall among MLB pitchers.
Right - I'm just talking about how defense reflects in basic stats. You said: Those are all things that don't get reflected in the typical (W-L, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP) pitching lines we usually look at. I'm just saying that if his excellent defense makes a diffference and helps him prevent runs, then it would reflect in those stats too. It goes to sealclubber's point that gold glove defense is already reflected elsewhere instead of adding even more value beyond his other stats.
All I was trying to say about W-L is that unearned runs is only vaguely reflected in W-L if it happens to change the result of the game, which is far from a certain proposition. Eliminating a runner through pickoffs, turned double plays, etc. could certainly reflect in ERA but the runner is not erased in his WHIP. You could definitely look at stats like "net baserunners per inning pitched" instead of WHIP or "runs average (RA)" instead of ERA that would take those into account (but would be unfair in other ways due to the effect of other defenders). And none of that would account for the fact that pitchers who commit errors can then end up with "unearned runs" even though the fielding mistake was theirs.
Justin Verlander is a finalist for the CYA. Spoiler AL MVP: Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout (TBA November 15) CY: Corey Kluber, Blake Snell, Justin Verlander (TBA November 14) ROY: Miguel Andujar, Shohei Ohtani, Gleyber Torres (TBA November 12) MOY: Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, Bob Melvin (TBA November 13) NL MVP: Nolan Arenado, Javier Baez, Christian Yelich (November 15) CY: Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer (November 14) ROY: Ronald Acuna Jr., Walker Buehler, Juan Soto (November 12) MOY: Bud Black, Craig Counsell, Brian Snitker (November 13)
95% sure that Houston will open 2019 with one of these 5 guys as their starting catcher: Wilson Ramos 30% Martin Maldonado 25% JT Realmuto 20% Salvador Perez 10% Yasmani Grandal 10% Gonna be disappointed if it’s Maldonado.
Yes, but I think the odds overwhelmingly favor the 5 guys I listed. If any of Suzuki/Chirinos/Weiters/Lucroy is the opening day catcher, something likely went horribly wrong (although I think that Wieters and Lucroy are interesting upside options).
While many free agent predictions seem really high to me, Daniel Murphy looks ridiculously low. The dude has been a professional hitter for the last several years, and his injury concerns would be mitigated by playing predominantly DH. Sign me up.
Yup, of the guys who are projected to take home <$10M/yr, Murphy seems like the best value. I also like Asdrubal Cabrera as a potential Marwin replacement, and there will be a handful of relievers with big time resumes that come in at that price. Bargainsxto be had, just depends on how affordably Houston is able to fill their holes at catcher and SP, and how much payroll flexibility they have.
Yea, Murphy and Andrew Miller would be my targets. Getting them for $9-$10M each, and both of them total would be just over 1 qualifying offer, which just doesn't reconcile with me. With money being very similar, give me the duo of Murphy/Miller over Keuchel every single time.
Jon Heyman of FanCred Sports hears that the Diamondbacks are willing to "listen on anyone," including Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke. It's not a big surprise, as the Diamondbacks need to ask themselves some important questions about their future with A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin in free agency and Goldschmidt going into his walk year in 2019. As for Goldschmidt, he batted .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs this past season and is owed $14.5 million next year. It would require a major haul for the Diamondbacks to part with him, so one rival told Heyman that they consider a trade as a "remote" possibility. Moving Greinke would be more of a challenge, as he's still owed $104.5 million over the next three years. Another source speculated to Heyman that the Diamondbacks would likely have to pay down one-third of it in order to make it palatable in a trade. Related: Zack Greinke Source: Jon Heyman on Twitter
While I say odds favor the guys you listed, I think odds Luhnow picks someone unexpected is a lot higher than 5%. Luhnow likes guys that aren't valued correctly by the market.
This is the reason I suggested Grienke and Goldschmidt with 30+ payed on Grienke contract. Get them both get the two needs you would need out the gate and move forward. You can load Grienkes contract to be less and less as his contract goes.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports...-up-who-could-and-couldnt-the-mariners-trade/ James Paxton Multiple baseball sources have said the Mariners’ best starting pitcher will be traded this offseason. Seattle has made it clear they are looking to move Paxton. Why? They are trying to take advantage of a weak starting pitching market. The three top starting pitchers on the free agent market — lefties Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Hyun Jin-Riu all received qualifying offers from their former teams. Yes, he’s never reached 200 innings in a season and, yes, he’s had a disabled list stint in four of his five big league seasons, but Paxton’s talent is still undeniable. When healthy, he’s dominant. He posted an 11-6 record with a 3.76 ERA (67 ER, 160 1/3 IP) with 208 strikeouts and 42 walks in 28 starts with the Mariners. He’s got two more years of club control, but as a client of agent Scott Boras, there’s a minimal chance he signs a contract extension. Paxton is projected to make $9 million in his second year of salary arbitration this season. That’s a fair amount of money. But it’s something a playoff contender would gladly take on for the potential of Paxton. The Mariners would hope to gain at least one high-level, big league ready prospect in a package of players for Paxton. Some MLB insiders believe the Mariners might try to package Paxton and someone like Seager or Gordon to a contender to get some additional salary relief.
