Time to enjoy these last two innings as world champions. November 1, 2017 seems just like yesterday...
I'm assuming now since he's still Houston's property. But it's close to the off season, so I'm guessing Keuchel will wait it out and test the market. Houston can offer him a deal he can't refuse/so good Keuchel won't bother with the UFA market but Houston would be dumb to offer that and they won't.
With Kershaw failing once again with the Dodgers I would not be surprised to see both parties part ways. Astros have to be at the top of his list if he walks. Verlander/Cole/Kershaw would be one of the greatest top 3s in history. Get it done.
Kershaw hasn’t looked like the same pitcher he once was. Velocity isn’t what it once was and doesn’t hit spots like he did.
Yep. He just needs to get on the Brent Storm program to revitalize his career. This dude still has some very good years left in him.
Lance is streaming Fortnite right now and just said he's going to miss Dallas (Keuchel obviously) when he leaves. Sounds like a formality.
I went through fangraphs free agent crowdsourced contracts predictor yesterday and came away feeling like there will be some bargains in free agency. Machado and Harper will each get 300M, but outside of those 2 there are wide ranges of outcomes for virtually every free agent because they all come with questions. Potential superstars like Donaldson and Pollack might see their market not develop because of their injury history. Formerly great players like McCutchen and Beltre will likely get short deals. There’s a glut of late inning relievers. Hopefully Houston is stashing some money to be able to take advantage of that. I also think Marwin will end up very disappointed if he thinks he is going to get a big contract. If he gets >$30M guaranteed he will have exceeded my expectations; if I’m Luhnow I QO him because Boras (and because his realistic floor value next season is probably >$10M so the risk isn’t huge) and hope he rejects.
Why is Machado getting 300 million? And who is giving it to him? Lets presume there are only two teams who could absorb that sort of contract without blinking, and one of them is the team that just rented him and didn’t really get extended value out of his stint there. I have my doubts about Harper too. No doubt, both players are going to get paid well... but we’ve seen teams become extremely fiscally responsible, and we’ve also seen the benefits of teams not rushing to sign players in terms of getting better contract value (see JD Martinez). The Astros will attempt to fill needs... but I don’t think they need to break the bank for it. Wait it out, get some players who have mutual interest in joining a contender, and try and take care of some internal extensions (Cole, Verlander for one more year possibly, get Springer locked up till 35 possibly).
He won't command the AAV of 35 million, but if he's truly on the edge of a cliff whatever offer that comes after the 70 million he currently owed may be peanuts. This offseason may be the last year he's worthy of a massive contract. Even with his current decline, I would be shocked if he still doesn't command 130 million or so guaranteed at the least. It is funny that we top the betting list of landing spots for Kershaw. I can't for the life of me imagine us even making a competitive bid for him, but it would definitely be a Warriors level troll move to add him after what our starters did last season.
Luhnow and the consistent amateur talent acquisition advantage: 2012: extra 1st rd draft pick and manipulation of bonus pool resulted in Lance McCullers, Rio Ruiz, and Brett Phillips 2014: extra 1st rd pick acquired from Orioles for Bud Norris resulted in Derek Fisher 2015: extra picks from trading Jarred Cosart and not signing Brady Aiken (along with bonus pool manipulation) resulted in Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Daz Cameron, and Patrick Sandoval 2016: extra international signees from going over July 2 pool amount resulted in Freudis Nova, Cionel Perez, Anibal Sierra, Yorbin Cueta, Angel Macuare, and Jairo Solis 2017: extra draft picks from Cardinals hacking resulted in Corbin Martin and Joe Perez 2019: extra draft pick(s) from rejected QO for Keuchel, Marwin, and Morton 2020: extra draft pick(s) from rejected QO for Verlander and Cole 2021: extra draft pick from rejected QO for Springer
Teams I think could afford a $300M contract: Phillies, Nats, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Cardinals, maybe the Angels. Now, I don’t think all of those teams will offer Machado/Harper $300M, but I think they’d all probably be in play for one of those 2 at $250M, and so the odds of somebody overpaying by $50M are pretty high. I’m calling Harper to the Phillies for $330M and Machado to the Yankees for $310M.
Morton's injury history is a factor here. The performance is wonderful, but I don't know how much you can count on him vs. what he is worth on the open market.
