I think you can piece together roughly a year's worth of statements/actions that at least support the notion their opinion may be changing... A year ago, he was untouchable in any trade (Cole; reportedly Realmuto); in July they brought him up with the hope he'd provide a spark and possibly make the postseason roster at a time the team was sagging a bit and needing a jolt; now, they're talking about him like he's... Tony Kemp. I have no issue with the "prove it" mindset - but that's usually reserved for players that are fringe-y; not players universally considered one of the 4-5 best prospects in all of baseball. It just appears - to me, anyway - that the tone on him has changed. Maybe not...
Why would they de-value him? The reason the tone has likely changed is that he's now accrued MLB service time, thus its no longer a "maybe, we will call him up" type situation. They'll probably still look to find a Marwin replacement (if he leaves), and that person very well may be the opening day LF as Tucker spends the extra 12 days to get more service time. Or maybe they're trying to ensure he works hard this off-season on the weaknesses he showed in his brief debut, and they want him to hit the ground running since they all agree that he's a vital part to this team's future success. It appears - to me, anyways - that you're reading too much into this situation.
If San Francisco is going to go ahead and do a full rebuild, I wonder what it would take to get a MadBum/Posey package and fill the two major roster holes in 1 fell swoop. Bumgarner is coming off 2 down years, is 29, and is on a $12M/1yr contract. Posey, 31, is also coming off a down year, and is owed $67.2M over the next 3 seasons. Both could be due huge rebounds back to their former mvp status or could be entering age related decline. Posey may only have another year as a full time catcher. My back of the envelope guess is that there is between $10M and $50M of total surplus value in those 2 players, so (again, guessing) a team could be looking at giving up ~$30M in surplus value to acquire them in a “fair” deal, unless San Fran eats some money. The Giants’ farm isn’t very good, so they may be open to a deal focused on a quantity of 2nd tier guys rather than 1 or 2 elite prospects. Here’s my hypothetical: Astros get: C Buster Posey SP Madison Bumgarner $14.2M Giants get: SP Cionel Perez SP JB Bukauskas SP Corbin Martin OF Derek Fisher PTBNL (prospect outside the Top 20 in Houston’s org)
Here is what I would try to do. Catchers Re-sign Maldonado to be your back-up catcher, for about $4 million a year Do not resign Gattis Decline the club option on Brian McCann and see if he will take less than $15 million Trade for J.T. Realmuto, give up prospects and Max Stassi if they want him Infield Keep Yuli, Altuve, Correa, Bregman Outfield Keep Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp Hope Kyle Tucker can take a big step forward and have him start on the MLB roster or intend to bring him up early. Designated Hitter Sign Nelson Cruz to a 1 year, $10-12 million deal. I know he is 38, but we need a consistent masher in the middle of the lineup Utility Re-sign Marwin Gonzalez, he is too valuable to let walk for nothing. He's currently making $5 million, I think a 2-3 year deal worth 20 million is a fair deal Sign Adrian Beltre for a 1 year deal. He can be our 2019 Carlos Beltran, which I really think we missed this season for clubhouse moral and focus Starting Pitchers Keep JV and Cole Re-sign Charlie Morton to a reasonable deal, even if it's just a 1 year deal worth around $10 million Let Keuchel walk, unless he would take a hometown discount Sign Patrick Corbin if Keuchel doesn't comeback. Corbin will want a big payday, and Crane should be able to give it to him McCullers may be out for the season, so let's hope Forrest Whitley is ready for the show, otherwise we can start McHugh. Relievers Decline Will Harris' club option Resign Tony Sipp, unless you are able to sign a FA lefty like Zach Britton If you don't get Britton, go after at least one of Cody Allen, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, or even Andrew Miller, to try and weaken the Indians, Red Sox, or Yankees. 2019 Opening Day Roster C - Realmuto/Maldonado 1B - Yuli 2B - Altuve SS - Correa 3B - Bregman/Beltre LF - Kyle Tucker or Tony Kemp CF - Springer/Marisnick RF - Reddick DH - Nelson Cruz SP1 - Verlander SP2 - Cole SP3 - Corbin or Keuchel SP4 - Morton SP5 - Forrest Whitley RP - Joe Smith RP - McHugh RP - Peacock RP - Devo RP - Ryan Pressly RP - Tony Sipp or Zach Britton/Allen/Kimbrel/Robertson/Miller RP - Rondon CL - Osuna
Too low on all those estimates. Maldonado will get $10M+ over 2 years. Cruz will get 2 years and $25M+. My guess for Marwin is $40M+ and at least 3 years. Morton is $30M+ over 2 years. Although way too high on McCann. He won’t get anywhere near $15M; I’d guess a 1 year deal <$10M for sure.
Replacements: McCann: McCann/Stubbs Stassi/Maldonado: Realmuto Marwin: Tucker/Kemp Gattis: White Keuchel: ??? Morton: Morton/Whitley McCullers: James/Whitley Sipp: F Valdez/C Perez
Marwin Gonzalez has produced ~$54MM in value the past two seasons while actually making $8.8MM. Now, I don't think he's going to command/get $27MM/year, obviously - but he's certainly not signing a 2/3-year deal for $20MM. No way. He'll be 30 next opening day; this is his last (and first) big payday. He's going to ask for, and probably get, $10-15MM/year for 3-5 years.
1/$10MM for Morton is probably not terribly far-fetched, IMO, if he's serious about having a monogamous relationship with the Astros.
Something I saw earlier today - knowing that we will be short on LH starting pitchers, especially if McCullers gets TJ surgery, it was suggested that we go after Bumgarner. He's got one more year but it's a PO I think. He would be great to have if we could land him.
He's totaled 240 IP the past two seasons with a 3.97 FIP (in NL) and 7.9 K/9, down from his peak years of 9.4. He's intriguing - for the right price.
I think Yankees and Dodgers mostly spend on pitching and elite players. They may run out of roster spots before they run out of money. If the Yankees and Dodgers don't go back to pre-2018 spending because they have too many good club control players, it could be another hard year for the mid and lower tier free agents. Pitchers shouldn't worry. I'm guessing Astros try to save some money for bargain bin shopping in late January and February.
My guess is that we sign Marwin in the 3/$36-$40M range. And I feel that he would be worth it at that price, considering his versatility on the field and his clubhouse presence. I think Morton gets something like 2/$30M or 35. Those are the only two I'd re-sign. After watching Maldonado fail repeatedly in the playoffs (sss, I know), I want no part of him. The cannon of an arm is useless if he can't block a ball in the dirt. The Red Sox didn't need to attempt a steal, they just waited for a pass ball. Grandal would be a nice option, if we don't want to pay the prospect cost for Realmuto. Gattis is gone and Keuchel is gone. Thank you for all that you did, but it is beneficial for both parties to go elsewhere.
He's been good in the past, but not this great. It is becoming more prevalent that pitchers with crappy fastballs are abandoning the "got to establish your fastball" mantra so they can throw pitches that batters can't hit.
Speaking of Morton, how does it work if he needs surgery his offseason but he's a free agent? Would the Astros do it / pay for it / rehab him, since he got hurt as an Astro? Or is he on his own since he's no longer an Astro (for now)?
Corbin has had flashes and seemed to finally put it all together + find some consistency. I felt the same way about Trevor Bauer as I did about Corbin.
One thing I don't fret too much about is this FO's ability to identify the right FA SP to target, their reasons why, and their ability to develop/coach that guy once they get him. I guess that's three things.
