Astros are taking this to 7. Baseball happened last night and the ball will start bouncing for us. Verlander wins game 5 Cole wins game 6 Game 7....anything can happen.
I felt that way about Game 2, before the series even started. I knew regardless of what happened in Game 1, if Price won his matchup against Cole somehow we'd be in trouble. We had to have Game 2. Damn. I'm pretty sports depressed right now.
I'm preparing myself for the emotional let down of a loss...but my head tells me the Astros win tonight...and that Cole on the mound in game 6 should favor the Astros, again....and that anything can happen in a Game 7.
Astros should have the pitching advantage the next 2 with Verlander and Cole against Price (on short rest) and a still recovering Sale. Game 7 would be a coin flip. That being said, the Astros now have no margin for error and the Red Sox are obviously a great team. As the last two games show, in baseball a bounce here or there or a ball hit a few inches differently can be the difference in the game. The Astros have actually had the better offense over the first four games (.234 / .364 / .409 vs .235 / .342 / .368), but the Red Sox hits have come at better times and they've made some clutch defensive plays. Just because the bounces have gone the Red Sox way in the first four games, doesn't mean they won't continue to go that way. So I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to 7, but I'm not particularly optimistic either.
Can we petition the league to move Game 5 to Boston? And just go ahead and play all 7 WS games in LA or Milwaukee? Something hasn't been right at home all year this year.
It's obviously not ideal, but........ ON PAPER, Verlander + Cole > Price + (sick Sale?). It's really not an inconceivable leap. Improbable? Yeah, probably - but no one should be surprised if this goes 7. Remember, the Yankees came here, up 3-2 & riding the high of a 3-game sweep in NY. Who shut the door? Justin F'ing Verlander. It hasn't been a *great* series - but I think it's been closer than the scores would indicate: G1: 3-2, headed to the 9th G2: 4-5, headed to the 7th G3: 2-3, headed to the 8th G4: 6-8, Astros load bases in B9 with Bregman up. *Any* of those games could've gone the other way.
That's why I think this series starts to even out. We are a great team. We will start getting the bounces and the wins will come. Getting 3 wins isn't impossible, the Red Sox just did it. We are about to get 3 wins. It starts tonight with Verlander.
It does seem that we are owed some bounces lol. If we can stop shooting ourselves in the foot every game I think we can do it. Heck at least make em earn it, and don’t let em sweep and celebrate at MMP.
I like this message and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. It starts by not giving the Red Sox free baserunners and bases though.
Sorry to state the obvious, but it would be highly preferable if we didn't let games go down to coin flips - not when you have to win three in a row against a team like Boston. Because they're really good, we might be the slightly better team but still go down because of variance. Early leads, great starting pitching, etc. would all help.
who gets the ball theoretically if this goes 7? Verlander goes today and then a day in travel and then game 6 and then game 7 the next day. I guess the break is too short to bring back out Verlander. I guess Keuchel would get the ball right with another very short leash?
Yep almost surely going to be Keuchel, and he would be your best remaining option. Something tells me though that Verlander would be available in relief for a couple of innings. Of course Morton would also be available in relief on 3 days rest. My hope is that we jump on Price early tonight so that Verlander doesn't have to pitch with high stress the whole game.
Fangraphs 13.5% sounds about right. It’s highly unlikely but certainly not impossible. 3 things drastically reduced their chances of winning this series: Their 2 most talented players (Altuve and Correa) are not healthy. They had too much time off after sweeping the Indians. Jackie Bradley Jr. started hitting like a hall of famer. Other than that things have gone within range of the expected. Every playoff series is bound to have questionable calls, mini-slumps, pitcher meltdowns, etc. But I agree, they technically should be favored the next 2 games with Verlander and Cole on the mound, and anything can happen in a Game 7. Go stros.
I mean.... it's not NOT an issue, but... Correa has a .967 OPS for the series, and had Altuve been awarded the HR, he'd be slugging .562. You didn't even mention what I'd consider the most debilitating obstacle: their offense has beaten our bullpen routinely. I can't even remember the last clean inning we had. Game 1, maybe? We blew a 4-2 lead in game 2 (with Cole on the mound); blew a 2-2 tie in game 3; and blew leads of 4-3 and 5-4 in game 4.
