Kennedy to retire - USSC will swing even further right

well that settles it

 

related

http://thefederalist.com/2018/10/03/media-matters-mangles-the-facts-to-smear-those-questioning-ford/

 

why are you obsessed with irrelevant data? Do you need other peoples opinions to feel better about yours?

 

Should we go by this or the FBI report yall begged for?

 

Well if the Constitution called for SCOTUS nominees to be picked by unscientific polls, Kavanaugh might be in trouble based on your reveleation. Since it gives the POTUS the power to appoint them with advice and consent from the Senate, I think Kavanaugh is safe.

 

Looks like the betting money is pointing to 52-53 yes votes

 

That would mean bi-partisan support .

 

Where do you see this? Which website or source?

 

prediction markets:

https://www.predictit.org/Market/46...augh-receive-in-a-confirmation-vote-by-Oct-31

 

49-51 is my best guess with 51 being the most likely outcome.

It id possible that if it looks like he will be confirmed that Heitkamp may for reelection odds vote for confirmation.

The political fallout is far more interesting to me. The Republicans were going to retain the senate anyway and a conservative justice would replace Kennedy.

 

51 Republicans plus Munchan. I think we all expect it barring Judge suddenly saying it did happen.

 

I would assume he posted the polling to point out that there can be political consequences for the Republicans having the only two justices accused of sexual assault on the court together as Republican appointments. Also, as for Kavanaugh a lot of American's believe he is a sexual assault perpetrator and will be on the Supreme Court.... so that isn't going to sit well politically for the Republicans.

It doesn't matter at the end of the day, all the Republicans have to do is pressure Flake and Collins into voting "yes".

 

Yeah, but then Merrick Garland would be on the Supreme Court.

 

The next Presidential election is shaping up to be a really important one.

The Democrats really need to win in 2020 because Ginsberg is 85 and Breyer is 80.

The Democrats will need to replace both of them....... and there is like a 20-25% chance that Thomas (70) or Alito (68) or Roberts (63) or Sotomayor (64) will have to step down or be replaced due to health of death over the next 6 years.

The Democrats have a thin margin for error.

 

Well, from what I gather from what I heard and also what I strongly believe how people REact... the R are pissed about this. Reinforces the victimizing and unfair treatment (doesn't matter if it's right or wrong, but that the feeling is real to this group of people). New motivation to vote. On the other side, Women are pissed about this. Reinforces the victimizing and unfair treatment (sounds similar?).

Hard to tell, but given overall that D were already pissed and can't get much more pissed, this new pissing contest is going to be overall in favor of the R politically (because although some R women are turned off, I think eventually they will go back to home base).

 

Not so sure. I think there will be political consequences for the Republicans and Trump and now Kavanaugh. I normally believe things politically blow over but we are talking about half of the voting public (women).

We won’t know for awhile either way.

 

why would anyone withhold inculpatory evidence?

 

at this point they're just playing games