media conspiracy /s http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ayoff-preview-odds-every-matchup-more#!astros
Thought about posting this morning. They have us as heavy favorites at 32%. Dodgers follow at 22% with Red Sox at 13%.
538 only has us at 22%, but still best in all of baseball... https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I have no idea what the hell ESPN is doing with us at a 32% chance to win the world series, that is frankly, insane. the guys that have us as the favorite at 24 and 22% make much more sense. It's all basically a coin flip as far as I'm concerned.
Yes, that's exactly what I mean- each round (in the AL playoffs at least) essentially looks like a coin flip (so call it about 25% to get out of the AL) and then call it a 3 out of 5 advantage in the World Series. Maybe we are slightly better than a coin flip against the Tribe, Yanks and A's. 22 or 24 percent looks right to me. ESPN's 1 out of 3 is absurd.
54% is "basically" a coin flip as far as I'm concerned. Especially if you go ahead and give them back the coinflip for the road games which means, yeah, it's very much a narrow margin however you want to prognosticate a playoff series. Hold on to your butts boys playoff baseball isn't for the weak of heart.
32% chance is definitely absurd... 20-22% sounds about right. we should definitely have the highest odds given our pitching but baseball is a random sport that anything above that feels entirely unrealistic.
It was a joke about where your coinflip would take place, you know, better odds at home and whatnot. Sorry it was taken seriously.
I’m learning around here still as a newish guy. There are plenty of pedants on the internet who will go to war over whether it’s fair to classify 54% as basically a coin flip.
I wish I had that confidence. I'm more worried about the Indians and their starting pitching than the Yankees or Red Sox.
