That's my concern. The Astros properly configured and playing in top form should be able to beat all contenders. The Astros are so unpredictable day-to-day, though. They keep finding ways to win. Some of those more extreme ways are going to disappear against playoff teams. Giving your starters one run of offense is not going to cut it. In a seven-game series, you can correct and fight back. In a five-game series, coming out of the gate slow doesn't give you much room to fix things.
It’s a whole nother sport... something most of the reactionaries in here have yet to realize, which is why I avoid game threads during the playoffs.
The Astros suffered through injuries and just not caring through parts of the year. Once you win the big one, its only human nature to let off the gas. They are going to play top notch baseball in the post season. There best level of play is better than any team in the playoffs. Fully expecting a repeat.
Today's lineup with James on the mound: Springer CF Altuve DH Bregman SS Gonzalez 2B Gurriel 3B White 1B Reddick RF Maldonado C Kemp LF
I'm just realistic. Trevor Bauer leads the league in FIP and has 2.21 ERA. Because of his inconsistency before this year, I'd still rate him behind most staff aces, but he has been legit this year. Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer & Sale are the guys I'd take over JV. Like I said, maybe late in the season, Sale just isn't the same player, but he's logged fewer innings then any point since being made a starter, so I'm less optimistic about that playing out. Against any of those guys, I trust JV to match them, but not to be better than them. I just hope the offense gets to them (which they have against Kershaw & Sale last postseason, so it isn't like they can't). Cole on the other hand, I don't trust to throw 7 innings of shutout or 1 run ball. He's slowed down in the 2nd half. Last time he didn't give up an earned run? July 9th (Verlander, Keuchel, & Morton have managed it 3 times each since then). Only once since the break has he not given up multiple runs. He hasn't given up more than 4 runs in a start this year, which is amazing, so we should be in any game he starts, but going in I expect us to need 4 runs ourselves (we haven't won a game Cole has started with 3 runs or fewer since April 13th).
The defending champions have another gear. Exhibit A: their 8th inning rally vs. the Angels just two games ago. They'll be ready. Hinch is still sorting out the playoff roster, but they'll be ready.
Go Stros! Let’s do this! We can repeat. We made the dance now let’s back to back this thing. I want more pictures at MMP with the trophy next year too.
Respect for the well thought out response. I'm just a homer, so all those stats mean very little to me. For one thing, JV and GC have excellent stats in their own right. Strikeouts are off the damn chain. More importantly, being on the defending champs and having a resume like JV has does more for confidence (and being in opposing hitters heads) in the postseason than stats ever will. Cole is unproven but I like his attitude a lot and think it will translate very nicely to playoff intensity. Morton needs to get healthy because he was nails last playoffs. So with all due respect to your statistical analysis, I will take our starters over anyone else's all day.
When I look at Cole's 5 losses, I don't see any AL playoff teams listed. So basically, one of two options apply: 1) If Cole pitches against a playoff team, the Astros are guaranteed a win or the bullpen will lose the game, or 2) Cole is fine and we shouldn't get too worked up too much by splits one way or another from a pitcher that has given up more than 3 runs only three times over the last 90 days.
Age old question, do you want the inconsistent guy that gives you one great start and one terrible start or do you want the guy that goes out there and gives you 6 innings of 2-3 runs every single time out? Really Cole has been cruising along in most starts, then suddenly bam, two runs. Interestingly enough, his K:BB ratio is actually better in the 2nd half despite giving up more runs and allowing a higher batting average (with corresponding increases in OBP & Slugging). Would be interesting to know if balls are being hit harder, more line drives, or simply just a change in the old hit it where they ain't.
Gotta love optimism. Wish I had it. I consider us the favorites, as we do have a historic run differential, are defending WS champs and that is with our stars mostly under-performing (aside from JV & Cole). I get so wrapped up in the games that it is easier for me to expect disappointment. Of course when the Rockets go for 0-1000 from 3 point range and lose a close game 7 in the WCF with a crappy Cavs team on the other side, it still stings.
This actually depends on the team. The worse the rest of the team, the more variance you want. That said, the inconsistent guy and the consistent guy are just luck and I'd expect both the regress to an average variance going forward.
I think pitchers who have an extra gear are better suited for the post-season... where very AB is as hypercritical as it gets. LMJ has thrived in the post-season dating back to his rookie year. Yes, if you extrapolate these starts to a 162 game season, it all evens out... but unless you're Mariano Rivera on the prime yankees, its hard to get a season's worth of post-season games in. The players themselves admit that the post-season is different... that outweighs any of the statistical analysis accounting for the extreme mental part of this game.
*cliche alert* Dwelling on the past does you no good at all. It only does you harm. Learn from the past, live in the moment, prepare for the future. It's the best we can do!
