Would you trade Capela for Thon Maker?

He was the least effective player of our top 7.

 

I don't believe TM is better than Capela. I believe TM is a better prospect than Capela. I also believe we would have a better chance for greater success if we had traded Capela for TM and then signed another center at a low salary, both as a roster..And in our ability to make a trade(s) for other great players.


By the way, TM was a target of ours in the draft.

 

I've given evidence in other threads. It was completely ignored and explained away that it was the other players in the rotation that were the weak link. There's no use giving it here. It's not going to change anybody's mind.

People are dug in on Capela being great. He's now the third highest paid player on our payroll. And most people think his contract is a bargain. That's crazy. I just hope he either learns to shoot or that his iso defense improves significantly and that he doesn't regress with his big money deal in the books so at least his deal is justified somewhat.

Because if he does regress..it's a significant problem and his contract will quickly become an impediment to our championship aspirations.

 

There are other elite run runners and week side help defenders available. There's an abundance of those types.

Yes, we now have an experiment in Chriss. As we do in Qi. And Hartenstein. In our system.....I think any of those guys could step up and replace Capela if given the experience with the first unit.

Capela's rim running skill is all about working the chemistry with Harden and Paul. They've worked together and developed their communication. He knows exactly what they want at all times. He knows when to slip, which way to turn, how hard to set, when not to come up, when not to come up. That is all a product of on-court practice and game time where over time him and Harden have seen every defensive set and combinations of defenders imaginable from every team. Over that time, Harden has communicated with him what to do in each set up and Capela has it stored in his memory bank.
It's DEVELOPED CHEMISTRY not actual basketball talent that has arrived Capela at this stage of his career. That process could easily be repeated with another big. Because that's what happened with Capela. We plugged him in, ran pick and roll to death, and in half a season he had developed that chemistry with Harden that is responsible for 80-90% of his growth as a player.

Now....Take a look at Hartenstein. He's quick, athletic, and long enough. Could he develop the same PnR chemistry with the big two as Capela????? Why not? Sure he could. And what's more.....He's already exhibited the ability to shoot the 3.....something Capela can't do presently. And I've seen enough of him defensively that I'm convinced with a half season of experience that we'd no worse for wear with him out there defensively instead of Capela.

And that's not because Hartenstein is so great either. It's because the nature of our system and the system of the team we're trying to beat. This is a special time in the NBA. We are going to have to play a certain way to beat the Warriors and win a ring.....period. And Capela and his skill set are VERY LIMITED in effectiveness against them. At best......At best....He was the 7th man in our rotation against them. And if Luc had been healthy.....we would have seen Capela's minutes cut drastically. You don't pay guys big money only to have them have to sit when is winning time against the Warriors. You trade those guys. And then you develop another big that can shoot and switch better and plug them in the rotation.

Can't always go small? Ok.

You win by going small. You get to winning by conserving minutes on your main guys and letting your clunky bigs chew up minutes in the regular season against inferior teams so your real top 7 guys that you're going to win with are healthy and fresh for playoff season. The Warriors have just won 3 championships doing just that. Using guys like bogut, javale, west, zaza....all big lugs....And mostly old guys.....on very minimal contracts....to burn through the regular season, running them out there for extended minutes against teams they don't have to go all out to beat. And they've also injected guys like Looney and Bell into the equation, letting them chew up minutes and marinate with the starters. Then when they get deep into the playoffs....it's curry, KT, Iggy, KD, and Draymond rolling around with Livingston. Against us Zaza and Javale barely played and Durant and Green's minutes went through the roof. As it should.

Now is Capela significantly better than Zaza, Javale, Looney, Bell, West? Well West is now retired. Capela is significantly better than zaza because if his age and mileage and better than Javale because Javale is a lunkhead. CC may be a little better than Looney but nothing significant. And he may be better than Bell....temporarily because of Bell's limited experience. I'm saying may. I don't ever believe that to be the case. Bell is already sitting the 3 and his defensive quickness is off the charts.

All those guys combined to chew up 22% of the Warriors regular season minutes. They played less than 16% of the minutes against us with Looney and Bell getting the bulk of those minutes and zaza, javale, and West barely seeing the court. After zaza had been a significant part of the regular season rotation.

You win by going small. Our whole scheme is built around switching everything defensively and spreading the floor offensively. That puts Capela on the bench in crunch time if we're going to beat the Warriors until and unless he develops a good 3-ball or becomes substantially more effective at switching and defending Curry and Durant. Or until we change our system. Those are facts we cannot get away from. And knowing those facts.......we cannot pay Capela the third highest salary, bench him in crunch time against the Warriors, and elect to beat them.

Time marches on. Situations change. Players change. Ariza and luc are now gone. We're replacing that chemistry....but we act like we can't replace Capela. He's somehow indispensable. No, he's not. He's just another player. Just another big man in a time period when there is an surplus of bigs and they're getting less minutes in crunch time because the league is trending small....especially at winning time.

We will be fine without Capela. Probably better because our salary would be spent elsewhere. And we would have been just fine without him if we had already traded him. There's plenty of ways to fill up his minutes with quality play and players.

 

I'm not trying to prove that.

 

Here's an example of twisting. I said thong is a better prospect. That's all.

 

I have not rode thon to nutsville. This thread was started because I got info that we were attempting to trade up to get Thon. I've written very little about him post draft. And I did not reopen this thread.

On the other hand.....you were very clearly busting my nuts because I made the statement that Terrence Jones could very well be out of the NBA within 5 years. The same way you're busting my nuts here, after only Thon's second season. You and others act like this is the end of the road for Thon's career.....when we've got two more seasons to see. Just like you acted like a fool busting me over my statement and thoughts about Jones' game.

As a great president once said.....There you go again.


The odds are that both capela and thon turn out to be pedestrian NBA players. But.....the odds are also much higher that Thin develops into more than Capela has developed in to.

I still stand by what I said. If I had to go back and do it again....I'd STILL have traded Capela for the rights to Thon. The Bucks were the team that would not do the deal.

 

Black, like many players do, has regressed from the time I made that comment. But we're not stuck with him on a 5-year high dollar deal either. Nor would I have advocated for us to have been either. Neither did we invest a draft pick in Black h he was a free agent). Nor did we pay Hayes big money. That was the secret to Hayes' value. Intangibles and extreme bball iq on a minimum salary.

Context is important.

My comments regarding the center position in our system have been very consistent. Unless were discussing getting Anthony Davis or Portzingis then everybody else pretty much fits in a big bag of mediocre to decent players. Capela is in that bag.

But if we're talking about young guys on rookie or minimum contracts..that's a different conversation. And you're not even including what we couldd have gotten for Capela at that time.

And to be consistent......just so you cheesy understand where I'm at here.....right now....today....I think we could replace Capela's minutes with Tariq Black and not miss anything at all. Tariq is a great pick-and-roll finisher. He sets a nasty, nasty pick. He's stronger than Capela. And has more stamina than Capela. And is just as quick-footed (more) than Capela. Not as long obviously. And he didn't play well last season admittedly. But he's basically a young dinosaur that does not have any perceived trade value around the league because no one has any hopes of teaching him how to shoot the three and he isn't going to get longer.

Nene is our old dinosaur. No longer needed. But still under guaranteed contract. And his small deal is actually a drag on us.

Capela is simply a young dinosaur with length that we are hoping and gambling on with $80 million can morph into a unicorn. We are paying him $80 million over 5-years in hopes he gets quicker defending switches and he develops s solid 3-ball. We're gambling. And it's a lot bigger gamble than drafting a guy and paying him a small salary for 3-4 years to see what he'll become. And it's a lot bigger gamble because of his payscale....than if we had traded him a couple years ago for a fresh first rind draft pick and reset the developmental clock to 4 years on that player. There's simply a lot more downside now in Capela with his current contract. Injury. Regression. We're taking a very good sized downside gamble to seer if we can turn him into a unicorn. I world have rather traded him for Thon, got 4 years to develop Thon, who had already shown the ability to shoot.....and went ahead and built pick-and-roll chemistry with
Black while having the ability to go sign another guy like Khem Birch, Michael Eric (yeah, because you don't even know who he is, he sucks...right?), or any of a host of long athletic bigs that can finish and get up and down.

It should be obvious to you and everybody else where we're going at the 5 spot...And where the whole league is going really. Everybody is drafting and signing bigs that have shown ability to shoot the 3 and/or develop a 3-ball. And the Association is full of large contract bigs that cannot shoot the 3 that are dinosaurs.

Look at Derrick Favors for instance. Nobody would give him a large long-term contract. He can't shoot the 3. He's probably a better defender than Capela. Utah gave him 1-17 essentially (second season non-guaranteed).....so they can use him as a nice salary-matching trade chip. That's all. Unless Favors learns to shoot the 3 efficiently his days making big money are over. Utah may keep him and re-sign him to a similar deal next season...for the same reason they signed him this season.....as a trade chip. Or they might sign him for a smaller salary short term. But Favors, at age 27, in the prime of his career, is essentially a dinosaur, a pick-and-roll center who is best defending the rim, can't shoot the 3, and is somewhat of a liability defensively when iso'd on the perimeter.

And Favors is one of the good guys. He's very likeable and a quiet hard-working player. He's a stronger, quieter, older Capela.

But he can't shoot the 3 and he's not good at switching. He's a dinosaur.

Capela is a dinosaur until and unless he learns to shoot the 3. He's just a young dinosaur in a changing league that is in the process of filtering out a lot of bad large long-term contracts handed out previously to big men who are now dinosaurs. He'd better learn to shoot the 3. Otherwise we're stuck like chuck with him.....for five more seasons.....the prime of Hardens career.