My guess would be that Cruz will win by about 8%, but if it was as small as 5% or as large as 14% I wouldn't be shocked at all. In fact, all of the Whitey O'Rourke hype is likely to inflate the turnout which helps Cruz so I'd argue that it's more likely that Cruz wins by 12%+ than only winning by 5% or less. Honestly there are MUCH more interesting Senate races out there, but as I said in the past, I understand why you guys are indulging in the fantasy of O'Rourke actually having a chance to win. It would be the same as Republicans talking about unseating Joe Manchin in West Virginia, it won't happen, but I guess it doesn't hurt to dream.
So you're asking me how I know that a town hall meeting with 35 people out in BFE isn't "moving the needle"? Really? C'mon man. Right now, he's the only person campaigning and he's still pretty far behind, I don't blame him for trying his hardest, I'm just not foolish enough to think that it is going to amount to anything. Even if our friends on the left don't like to admit it, Ted Cruz is popular in Texas and Whitey O'Rourke is nothing but the next Wendy Davis.
The point of the post was that he's on the ground, going door to door as they say, and getting involved. It does matter in political races, that's why politicians do it. Look, Cuck Cruz may indeed win and we may indeed continue to have him represent Texas as senator, but the whole point is Beto is closer than you are giving him credit for. It's not me just saying that but actual polls. I'm going to go on the polls over your word on this.
Yeah, it's a bit surprising, but what can you say? It's Lubbock. The polls are tightening up, which is what I love to see. Honestly, does anyone like Cruz? I don't know anyone who does, and we know some Republicans and a bunch of independents (my significant other worked for the legislature for 30+ years, a large amount of it as an executive, and we know a lot of people). The Republicans I know really dislike Cruz. The man is well and truly a creepy guy, someone I wouldn't trust as far as I can spit. The only thing the fellow has going for him is the "R" next to his name. That's it. I don't think he has the usual advantages an incumbent would ordinarily possess. If he did, Beto wouldn't be neck and neck with the guy.
A car (blue volkswagen bug) with BETO for senate, painted on the back windshield had the crappiest parking job today I have seen in a while at a parking garage. I had to get in on the passenger side, while they 2 1/2 feet of room on their side. Zero reason I could see why they did that.
The "republicans" you know must be RINO's and not very conservative. I know hundreds of republicans from work, church, friends, family, and groups I am involved with and have never heard anyone have anything but good things to say about Cruz. Most of them supported him for President just like I did.
That post says a lot more about why you are how you are politically than anything else. Your post is as anecdotal as mine, except that I didn't exaggerate how many Republicans I know. I can tell you something you may not realize, being caught up in the far-right as you are. While they are slowly disappearing, there are still a heck of a lot of actual conservatives, not the bizarre "conservatives" you clearly hang out with, in the legislature. Now that Strauss is gone, more will leave. You know what will eventually occur? You won't like it. The legislature, the statewide elected offices, the House and Senate seats held by Republicans in Texas will become filled with GOP members so extreme that there will be a backlash. That could begin in this coming election. We'll see. You really should consider broadening your sources of news and information, in my humble opinion.
Definitely the underdog, but... O’Rourke Puts Race into Lean Republican Column https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/texas-senate/orourke-puts-race-lean-republican-column
That was the most awkward ad I think I've ever seen. He even went with the coverage of his own daughter not wanting anything to do with him. The look in that one dude's eyes were saying "Seriously, get your f***ing hand off me already."
Beto's people have texted me twice, I asked them why I would vote to raise my taxes and reduce my liberty?
I wasn't trying to be clever, but that is the threshold Beto needs to overcome. There's no getting around the fact that he supports those things.
Indeed. That simple minded litmus test for determining who is the best candidate is the opposite of clever if I've ever seen it.
