But what good is that going to do on this roster? Batum is wayyyy worse than Harden and Paul so realistically how often are you needing a player to do anything else but shoot it when passed to when they share the floor with one of those guys?
The trade for James Johnson is likely to include a long term bad contract like Dion Waiters. Not a positive asset like Winslow or Richardson etc. You could do Anderson+Nanu for James Johnson+Waiters. It saves Miami 5M this year. And they are in the LT so that means something. PLUS they have to extend Winslow and are in a bit of a roster crunch. Morey could then try to trade Waiters. Perhaps to a team like Sacramento that is looking for wing help. You could move Waiters for Shumpert for example.
I don't think there is any way to get Jimmy Butler until next summer. I think there is a real chance he will leave Minny, BUT I am not sure how proactive Thibs will be in trading "his guy." Feels like he would only do it as a "last resort" type of thing. Butler to Houston would have to be like the CP opt-in and trade deal in June. Force Thibs hand to make that trade or else have Butler walk to NY or LA etc. But Butler has to work with CP/Harden/Melo to make that happen. Minny could easily miss the playoffs this year too.
I acknowledge that Porter is a better fit than Johnson (or Baze). But I just don’t see SAC taking on Ryno without meaningful pick compensation. If we send them multiple future 1sts, then we pretty much are unable to trade any more picks for the next 4 years. And I don’t think two 29/30 picks would be enough for SAC. Also, WAS is trying to compete right now. I have them slotted as a 3/4 seed. They may want to hold off to see how their team performs this year, but if they wait past October 1st, then they would’ve already paid half of Porter’s salary this year! Porter’s contract is another big issue here. You are pretty much locking this team into obscene luxury tax payments for the next three years. Porter would be making nearly $30 MM a year after the trade kicker goes into effect! He’s the ultimate 3 and D player, but is that worth such a heavy price tag, especially when it would preclude us from making other deals? I think you are selling Johnson short here. This guy is a defensive stud that racks up stocks. More importantly, he is so versatile offensively - he can shoot the rock decently and is an incredible facilitator (which Porter hasn’t added to his game). I encourage you to read this write up on the many ways that MIA has used Johnson offensively. I love our offense but you need some versatility when the team is stuck in a rut from outside (cue game 7 nightmares). Our best lineup against the Dubs featured Tucker as a small ball 5, where all players on the court could switch defensively and shoot/handle the rock. Johnson gives ya another guy who can be slotted into that lineup. Plus, MIA is a middling team and we know that Riley loves to dabble in free agency. There is a clear incentive for him to offload Johnson’s 3-year deal so he can be a player in 2020. We can use this to extract a pick from MIA to facilitate Ryno to SAC.
I outlined a (feasible) deal where we wouldn't have to take on Waiters' deal. SAC would get meaningful compensation for taking on Ryno, we get a rotation piece, and MIA sheds a lot of long-term salary AND ducks under the luxury tax this year.
I like it (and proposed something similar). I just believe Randolph makes more sense in Miami than Koufos at this stage of their careers.
I included Koufos because his salary is low enough to get MIA out of the luxury tax. Randolph's salary would reduce their salary obligation, but would keep MIA in the luxury tax zone. To get MIA to fork over a mid-1st, the deal should be able to provide meaningful short- and long-term cap savings IMO
I get you. Mickey Arison is still going to want the team to be competitive (to sell to it to fans.) Randolph is probably going to move the needle for fans and for Riley + Spoelstra more than Koufos. As long as they get below the tax threshold, I believe that's the key. They are about $4.5M over (according to spotrac). If they move Johnson (to Rox) & Waiters (to Kings), that is about $26M in salary going out. Both Randolph ($11.7M) & Koufos ($8.7M) are expiring so it's a wash there. So as long as just 1 of those 2 and a low level contract (<$2m) are coming to the Heat = they will be fine and well below the threshold. Moving $26M out this year might be worth attaching a protected 1st round pick (plus freeing up future $$$ in 2019 & 2020 [Waiters]) Just saving about $6M this coming year might not be worth a 1st IMHO. Sorry typing on phone - so not sure if I am getting my full point out.
Would SAC take on both Ryno and Waiters in your trade? That is a ton of long-term salary and would require 3+ 1st round picks IMO. At this point in their careers, Koufos and Randolph are pretty similar in ability. I think that MIA would rather take on Koufos vs. swapping Randolph for Waiters AND another 1st
Fair point. Yes... but I was also assuming multiple 2nds (from HOU) in addition to two 1sts (MIA 2019, HOU 2019) And yes Ryan + Waiters to SAC. Although word on the street (CFans) was SAC was looking for wing players so Waiters might actually interest them. Also... Ryan. Sac-town... yada yada yada Sac wouldn't have a lot of room to pursue free agents, but they can draft a young prospect (which would probably be better investment). IIRC their pick is not their own. 2019 - 2020 Bagley - WCS (RFA) - Giles Bjelica - Ryan- Labissiere Bogdonavoic - Jackson - draft / free agent Hield - Waiters - McLemore? Fox - Ferrell - Mason Young squad... Ryan = vet leadership... room for growth
Johnson is the only one I am interested in at all out of this list, most are too expensive for what they bring. I would only bring back a big contract for a low-ceiling player if it's the same duration as Anderson or less. Otherwise, we're almost better off just biding our time for another year until Anderson's value jumps as an expiring asset. *(Butler is the exception, I don't consider him attainable)
Haven't you heard? Chinanu Onuaku is the most sought after prospect in the league since Stromile Swift.
The four were after are batum, caroll, Lee, and bazemore. I like all for for the rockets, but batum would be bomb... If he's healthy
We need to consider the player's health history. I don't want a great player who misses too many games.
