But the question is, did we lose because we lacked one more playmaker or because we ran out of good defenders who could sustain the kind of defense that won us three games in the series? Actually, if you watched the game, you'd know that a lot of the shots we missed were open shots. So the problem was not that we needed more guys to create open shot. We just couldn't hit. As JayZ has shown, Melo does not shoot a higher percentage on open 3s than Ariza.
That’s why I said right now. When the game starts start and night in and night out I’m learning more and more about the team I’ll get there but for now I’m not really invested. Do you love a woman the first time you meet her? Takes time.
I mean... there's data on all of this. OBVIOUSLY, different system, teammates, etc. and roles and ways of scoring can change a bit. But Melo took 150 shots within 3 feet of the rim last year. Ariza took 170. Absolutely, as noted, Ariza's were assisted on, on a much heavier level (66% vs. 38%)... but... ok? Ariza shot a better % on those because they were assisted on and likely more open than Melos. I'd rather just run the regular offense and have a guy like Ariza getting more and higher % shots than a guy like Melo who might be able to create some of that on his own but otherwise doesn't get the same number of solid open looks, probably because of less off ball movement. Meanwhile, OF COURSE, Ariza only shot 67 shots from 3 feet to the 3 point line all year. Compared to 589. that's right... 589!!! shots from 3 feet to the three point line. Melo was NOT efficient at ANY of those shots. From 3 feet to 10 feet he shot 34%. From 10 feet to 16 feet he shot 46%. From 16 feet to three point line he shot 37%. All of that is inefficient offense compared to the other options the offense already has. So sure, defenders and defense in general will guard Melo differently. He'd be the one guy on the team likely to pump fake into a mid range shot, and defenses, ESPECIALLY smart defense will know that and try and bait him into it. And guess what else? Melo averaged 1.3 apg last year. 1.3! Sure, Westbrook's usage is insane. Sure, PG was there. But we're talking about a guy who once led the league in usage at 35.6% while giving his team 2.6 apg. As can happen, it's easy to look at the potential upside while ignoring what's right in front of you. Sure... Melo SHOULD benefit from better passes, and hopefully integrating into a non mid-range type system. After all, CP3 took more 3 pointers last year and slightly fewer mid range shots, too. But there's also the downside, too... which is they've added an inefficient offensive player by all accounts and historical metrics that will take shots and possessions away from the more efficient playmakers. But as I noted... this comes down to Melo's mentality. Can he seriously curtail inefficient mid-range shots? Will he play smart bball where he takes advantage of OBVIOUS mismatches (not this get Draymond Green switched onto him nonsense) and will move the ball to more spaced out three point shooters if/when he does drive? Will he embrace a 7th man mentality? Will he put in the effort defensively, rebounding? I get the reason DM is taking the risk, just pointing out that there's generally heaps and heaps of data on this stuff by now, in addition to heaps and heaps of eye test.
either would've worked. making them score less or making us score more is usually how you close the gap lol. we couldn't replace our defenders so we are hoping melo provides as much offense as they did defense. its not a far fetched assumption that he can. my issue with the offseason is that we lost two rotation players and only added one.
Absolutely. Its the confusing part to me. DM just hasn't gone after any of the true 3 point specialists... or at least hasn't signed many. I guess EG counts, but we're still riding that first half of 16/17 high on him as far as % goes. He's solid, he's no 40%+ guy. Even without CP3, the offense worked, the problem was (i) no one was hitting, and (ii) every time GSW turned up the juice and ball movement offensively, without CP3 there to lead a bull-dog defense approach, they got lackadaisical... sure some of those were moving screens, but they were moving screens on the back of just lack of total concentration... turn your back on Steph for 1-2 seconds... he keeps moving, as a defender you should know what's happening, etc. Once he runs one baseline pass, continue on, hit the corner three play, you shouldn't fall for that twice. Is Melo going to help with that? The "upside" to Melo is that you get a mismatch, he has a true height advantage, you can potentially go to him when Harden is bogged down with dribble mania and isn't hitting, and hope, for an individual game or two, he gets hot. You're betting on his own variability. Give us PRIME Melo for a game... a half... a QUARTER even. Cause that's something Ariza couldn't possibly do... ever.
You guys do know you’re comparing Ariza in Houston’s offense to Melo in whatever the hell OKC ran right?
Over 92% approval! i havent seen an approval rating close to that high since we traded for Ty Lawson... lol Ps: That's not a slight on Melo... ultimate low investment/ high potential move... I say let him let him start, give him 26-32 minutes a night and hope for the best!
This is what I have been saying. The offense GS throws at you is relentless. The only way to defend them is throw relentless defenders at them, like what we did in those three games. But that is unsustainable for a long time unless you have a whole bunch of good defenders you can use. And we just lost two of them this offseason and added a guy who is not a defender at all.
Yeah. But the second half of my post argues that adding Melo might not add that much of offense because we need more good shooters than good creators. Of course it's always good to have more creators. But if you can only choose one, you choose shooters because we already have Harden and Paul. Melo is a good creator, and a respectable shooter when he is open. Ariza is a respectable shooter when he is open. Is Melo an upgrade over Ariza on offense? Yes, but what he adds is the creator part, not the shooter part, which is not what we need most.
No. Ariza is a respectable shooter when he is WIDE OPEN. Melo doesn't miss if he's open. Melo's FG% - factor in the degree of difficulty of his shots.
What most impressed me regarding defense during the GSW series wasn't the defensive prowess - but the tenacity! Everybody was running and hustling, trapping, hands up, cutting off passing lanes, etc... I never thought of GG as a good defender - but he looked great at stretches - due to sheer hustle and determination... Point being, yea we may have problems defending KD on an iso... but if everybody commits to defense and just works hard and hustles - we'll be fine... funny part is, i was going on about defense a couple years ago and our need to make it a focus... and was told defense is irrelevant and its all about scoring in today's NBA... lol... what's next - dominant big men in the paint? lol
I've already posted the data. You can view by player on NBA.com shooting %s by openess. Very tight, tight, open, wide open. Ariza's numbers were better than Melo's across the board last year. What you said above is wrong. You have to go to the next step, which is deeper analysis of Melo's shooting %s based on who was passing him the ball and hitting him in the "exact" right spots whether open or guarded to get even close to a hypothesis that he'll just magically shoot better here...
Risk that Melo doesn't accept his role and therefor subtly sabotages the team. Bear in mind, we already know Harden is prone to passive aggressive type pouting when he isn't getting along with a teammate.
I don't think melo will help us much. His game is not sharp, his defense is lacking. What is he going to do buy disrupt MDA's offense just like he did in NY. I remember and can tell you Melo doesn't listen to anyone. We need guys who can play D and hit the 3. Unless Melo is playing center I don't get how we will use him.
Ariza wasn't and isn't even close to the player Melo was and is now. What Melo lacks in defense, he makes up in spades in his ability to create his own shot, dribble under control, and finish. His mid-range game is CP3 like in potency. Not to mention the dude is an absolute load on the block. Yes, I understand, not without his flaws as a chucker and malcontent, no one's perfect. He will be a monster on this team, those still butthurt about Ariza leaving should get a grip. Ennis will be very serviceable in his place as a 3 and D, he's younger and more athletic. Not a bad contingency plan IMO. As @Clutch said, think of it as a replacement for Ryno instead at the vet minimum. Not much to be grumpy about, at all.
