my biggest concern with Melo isn’t his shot attempts, it’s the amount of times he stops a ball that is moving from one person to the next just to for a few one on one moves (resulting in his or another persons shot)
This is his contract year, if he makes more shots, he can get bigger contract next year. What is the max we can pay him next year? 3 years 30 million? Total 82 shot attempts a game Harden/Gordon/Melo/Paul = 72 Rest of the team plays defense = 10
gotta see what his role will officially be with the team 1st Maybe 14 shots a game with 7 of them being threes?
next contract look like: 18 shot attempts, 3 years 36 million 9 shot attempts, 1 year 3 million He would Lose 33 million dollars Some players are selfish during the contract year.
if it scares the warriors into getting another star player then w/e, lets do it. sucks for bobby brown though. he wont be getting any shots, assuming morey signs him again.
I would be absolutely shocked if his shot attempts dipped to a range that low Ryno managed to average 7 shots a game in 26 minutes, and he’s notorious for passing up shots left and right. Long stretches throughout a game where he would barely get the ball were routing with him. We all know Melo isn’t shy about gunning, and I can’t see him being happy only getting 8-10 shots a night. He’s more skilled offensively than Ryno, so I say around 14 shots a game. my hope for Melo during the regular season: 17, 6, and 3 on 42-43/37/84 shooting splits if the decline is real and he somehow manages to look as bad as he did last season: 14, 5, and 2 on 42/34/84 shooting splits
I posted Melo stats with Rockets being: Points.....3PM...3PA.....3P%.....FTM.....FTA.....FT%.....USG% 18.3 .........2.6......6.9.....37.1%....4.5.......5.8......77.6%.....25 which means Melo makes 12.3 pts a game on FT’s/3’s... which means Melo needs to make 6 pts/ game from 2 to equal approx 18.3 pts./ game......about 3 makes from 2/ game. I believe the Rockets coaching staff/management (analytics) will instruct Melo on where to accentuate his positives on the court and minimize his negative shooting areas....making him the most efficient Melo to ever play in a regular season game. I stand these numbers which I posted on another thread weeks ago; except on bumping up the USG% to about 27%. Melo was a USG of 23.2 last year with the Thunder. I mainly want Melo on the blocks posting up vs mismatch opponent. Drawing fouls.......and drawing defenders for kick outs. The main purpose being drawing defenders for open 3’s. 3’s >>>> 2’s. But more post ups attaching smaller guys will result in more FTA’s (another staple of the Rockets offense). Summary: 18.3 pts....6.9 (3PA).....7 to 9.1 (2PA) = my vote of about 14-16 FGA’s/ game...30 mins / game. Rockets cover up his defensive woes by switching in space. 17/18 Eric Gordon: 24.7% (USG%)............down to 19% this year Harden: 36.1% (USG%)....................down to 29% this year (not chasing MVP title) CP3: 24.5% (USG%).........................about the same for the last few years....consistent 24% Tucker: 10% (USG%)........................up to 16% this year James Ennis: about 16% last year....down to 13% this year. Tucker does more this season (on the wing). ***Ryan Anderson won’t be featured like last season to build his trade value. Ryan USG% goes towards Melo/Tucker. Ariza/Luc MaM combined last for 27% (USG%); Ariza 14.1% (USG%) & Luc MaM 12.9% (USG%). Just my take. Subject to change with other addition or Capela hold out.
Should stay at around 14-16 FGA. 41-42% FG 34-35% 3PT That's probably a realistic estimation. Ideally I'd like him to average around 12 FGA with 44/38/80 shooting splits (not forcing anything, just taking good shots). But I think that's unlikely.
I expect Melo to eat up a relatively large amount of minutes for the regular season. I put 14-16 because I'm optimistic Melo is going to have a good season.
