At one time I was in the Realmuto camp, but I don't see that in the plans anymore, mostly because of Stassi. The Astros have 4 more years of control on Stassi after this season, and as was mentioned earlier, he's leading all AL catchers in OPS. He's not the backup...he's the starter, both now and in the future. When McCann comes back, assuming he does come back fully healthy and ready to go, he will be the backup. I don't like all the strikeouts, and Realmuto is still the better player, but Stassi deserves the chance to prove himself and it's not worth the assets to upgrade. If you're looking at next year, you still have Stubbs as a good part time/backup option, which most think will suit him. If you're looking for a bat, watch left field. If Tucker produces, we're good...no trade necessary. If not, you MIGHT go look outside the organization. I say might because we still have Kemp and Marwin. Right now, the playoff lineup looks like: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa 1B Gurriel RF Reddick DH Gattis LF Tucker C Stassi Bench: Marwin, Kemp, McCann If we go with 12 pitchers, then I could see us adding Marisnick back in. I'm somewhat concerned by the lack of righty bats off the bench, but when you think through the different sub situations, they will mostly be pinch running and defensive subs...not pinch hitting. The REAL position to watch is late inning relief pitching, and even that is debatable. We will very likely cut our starting rotation down to 4 in the playoffs, which means 1 of Keuchel or McCullers will go to the pen...probably Keuchel. So now your bullpen looks like this: Keuchel Peacock McHugh Devenski Rondon Sipp Smith Giles Harris The first 5 are rock solid, and are probably good enough that you can carry 12 pitchers. That means one of the last 4 gets cut. Sipp has done well as a lefty specialist, so he probably stays. Between Smith, Giles and Harris, 1 gets left off the playoff roster, 1 stays, and 1 might get moved to make room for another reliever.
Totally agree! Alvarez needs to be the centerpiece for the deal. Stassi will probably be locked in as our backup catcher. Stubbs is probably too small, and what you said about Federowicz and McCann are all very true. Realmuto will really add a lot to our offense, at a premium position which we need help at. He is one who I would also look to try and lock up long term if we land him. Getting an elite, non-rental catcher in his prime will never be cheap, because they can make any team way better. Yes, losing Alvarez may not be easy, but we have OF depth in the system. For 1B, where I doubt he'll see much AAA and MLB time, we have Yuli for two more years, who has been even better than Abreu iMO (which makes trading for him stupid), and Beer probably takes over. Davis is also fine there. On a side not, maybe we can nab one of Barraclough/Conley as well in a deal for Realmuto?
We aren't carrying 13 pitchers in a postseason series LOL And Marisnick is going to be on the roster, he is too valuable for late inning defense and baserunning, two things Kemp isn't very good at.
Prepare to be disappointed then, cause I would be shocked if Luhnow gave up Alvarez in a deal for him, or anyone, who only has two years of control left. It’s just not how he operates At the end of the day we are playing fantasy trade for right now. Luhnow is thinking about signing Springer and Correa and Bregman to go along with Altuve and how the other pieces is the puzzle would fit around them. That will require plenty of young pitchers who “make it” and a couple of more young stud bats who won’t be making money As I’ve said before, we could have had Chris Sale if he would give up his top guys, he was willing to do without and eventually got Verlander and then Cole without giving up the top top guys, so wanting him to do so for Realmuto, especially with a young guy who as of now is one of the top catchers in the AL playing for us already, is just not something that is going to come true for you guys If Realmuto has 4+ years of control then maybe so, or if Miami would take someone at the Bukauskas level as the “headliner” then maybe so...doubt they will though
Alveraz and J.B would be a heck of a starting point for Realmuto. And get off the Marsinik train. Dude needs more consistancy at the plate. Sure a 4th or 5th OF but Kemp is holding that down. Marwin can sub in
So really what's the point on Jake? Bregman can sub out to OF aswell in a pinch. And Tucker looks like he is gonna hold it out. Jake might even be moved who knows
Opinions will vary, but Franklin Perez was certainly a top prospect when he was traded for Verlander. He was a consensus Top 100 guy and many (if not most) evaluators had him in the top 50. That’s not that far off from where Alvarez is currently ranked, and Houston added Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers. And it’s hard to pin down where graduated guys like Moran and Musgrove would rank but they were both really good young players. Luhnow is willing to give up top prospects for good players when he thinks it makes sense. Hell, he traded the best reliever in the universe for Carlos Gomez. Neither Gomez nor Verlander had 4 years of control remaining.
Houston has two needs IMO and it's another bat and another arm in the pen. I think if Tucker can prove himself between now and the trading deadline, that will take some pressure off. I don't think you can trust Marwin, Reddick, and the catcher position come postseason. I think if you can get another bat, you have to do it. Houston will be competing against the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Cleveland Indians in the postseason and all three rank in the top four in offenses. Houston's starting pitchers can't be perfect in the playoffs and they will need the offense to be there. The bullpen I believe is ranked 2nd currently but there's no way anyone can say they trust this bullpen come postseason. Hinch using starting pitchers in the postseason was amazing for 2017 but I must rather see them have another elite arm for this year's playoffs. I think Rondon has done a great job as our closer but once again, you're going against 3 of the top 4 offenses in all of baseball come playoffs. Luhnow knows what he is doing and I'm pretty positive he is well aware of this. Jake Kaplan's article pointed this out today about why Tucker is here. At the end of the day, it would be amazing to see them go back-to-back.
You can either assume a top-4 offense will continue to hit well in the playoffs, in which case we don't need help in hitting, or you can assume a top-4 offense will falter in the playoffs, in which case we don't need help in pitching. I'm not trying to be contrarian, but short of a lights-out reliever (and I don't see any realistically available) or a proven All-Star caliber hitter (and only Abreu or Realmuto would qualify) I just don't see a need. If we can get one of those two hitters without giving up much, fine. But especially with a wide-open NL, plenty of other teams have more dire needs and higher willingness to pay,so it isn't likely. I'd love to further stack the deck, but realistically should expect pretty much nothing this deadline. Even a consolidation move probably should wait until the offseason when we know where our own free agents will land, there is more talent available and bidding wars are less urgent.
No, I totally get it. I still think you have to try and stack the deck especially with them being one of the favorites to win it all this year. We all know the Yankees and Red Sox will look to make moves as well.
I just think Luhnow has certain guys he isn’t moving and he won’t budge. Maybe I’m wrong and he ships Alvarez and Bukauskas and Martin and Nova to Miami or something like that. Or maybe Luhnow is fired and Pupura is brought back and we trade our whole farm for Harper My money is on Whitley and Alvarez going nowhere but MMP and if we end up needing a catcher we move good, but not elite, prospects to get one
On Alvarez, I suspect most teams view him as a Top 25 prospect. Top 25 hitting prospects are rarely traded as they are highly valuable and usually not far from majors. Usually takes an ace or good No 2 starter with 3+ years of control to acquire a top 25 hitting prospect. Highly doubt he is traded away. With Astros likely needing SPs soon, doubt they trade their top pitching prospect. I doubt many would bet against you.
Specifically on those you mention Yes Perez was a top 100 guy, and he will certainly move guys like that in a deal. You just never got the idea that the organization thought he was “special” Hader has great numbers and was moving up the charts quickly, but he wasn’t one of the Correa/Bregman/Whitley/Tucker types in any way. Yes he has turned out that way but you never know what these guys will turn out to be, you can only go by what the organization thinks they will turn out to be I think they view Alvarez in that top group and he won’t be moved. I think we have other guys in the Perez/Hader/Phillips range that can and will be moved for something, but I doubt Miami moves Realmuto without a Whitley/Alvarez type. It isn’t like Machado where you move him or get nothing, they have two more years with him And come on man Moran/Musgrove were not close to the Alvarez range. Both had value and could be solid mlb players, but you move guys like that all day long to fill needs. That’s kind of my point, yes Luhnow will move prospects, he won’t move the ones HE thinks are elite though
Agree, and with the money it’s gonna take to keep Springer, Correa and Bregman all here long term, you have to have more cheap studs on the roster. I think many fans just assume we will lose some of those 4, I think we can make it work with them all here if the pipeline is still producing
exactly-- what's the point in trading for him? lateral move at best. Gurriel and Gattis have both outperformed him this year. You'd be trading for a name--that's it. (kinda like Beltran.. kinda) Plus with injuries to our catchers, it's nice to have Gattis as a backup C -- so you're looking at replacing Gurriel--the league's most clutch hitter?
Only way trading for Abreu this month makes any sense is if Houston doesn’t have faith in Tucker as a viable playoff hitter. In that case, Abreu goes to 1B, Gurriel goes to 3B, Bregman to LF. Not ideal but it adds a star hitter to the middle of the order while not really hurting the defense that much. Trading for Abreu makes more sense this offseason when Gurriel can shift into Marwins utility role, rotating between 1B, 3B, 2B, and DH to get the equivalent of everyday ABs.
I can see how that will work next year if both Gattis and Marwin walk. There would still be room for Tucker in the OF.
I don't think trading for Abreu is the best use of resources with Gattis hitting like he is. Gattis has saved us a few prospects being traded for a rental bat this year. I'd still take Machado just to keep him off somebody else's team. I'd empty the farm system for Realmuto. He's a star at the most important position. Want.
