[ESPN] LeBron James to the Rockets? Here's how it could happen this summer

Air Langhi · Jun 11, 2018

If LeBron James' goal this offseason is to join the team that gives him the best chance of knocking off Golden State after back-to-back losses to the Warriors in the NBA Finals, his best hope may be joining the Houston Rockets -- who took the Warriors the distance in this year's conference finals.

Because Houston is already too close to the salary cap to sign James outright before even dealing with new contracts for free agents Chris Paul and Clint Capela, getting LeBron to Houston would almost certainly require a trade. Is such a scenario possible? Let's look at how it might happen.
Step 1: James opts in for 2018-19

If LeBron wants to play for the Rockets, it would probably be necessary for him to go the same route Paul did a year ago: passing on free agency to set up a trade to Houston. Why? Because even if the Rockets were to pull off a sign-and-trade deal for James as a maximum-salary free agent, doing so would hard-cap them at the luxury-tax apron, estimated at $128 million for next season.

Max salaries for James and Paul (an unrestricted free agent), plus James Harden, would swallow up more than $100 million of that total. Add in a max salary for Capela (a restricted free agent) and Houston would already be pushing the apron, with 10 roster spots still left to fill.

So unless James or Paul is willing to take a massive pay cut -- unlikely given their leadership roles in the National Basketball Players Association (Paul is president, James is first vice president) -- LeBron opting in is the way to go.

Unlike Paul last season, James wouldn't have to sacrifice much in the way of salary to do so. In fact, his $35.6 million player option is actually worth slightly more than the current max projection for 2018-19 ($35.35 million). And six months after a trade (mid-January, in this scenario), LeBron would be eligible to sign a max extension with the Rockets, meaning he can get to Houston and sign a long-term contract without having to wait until the summer of 2019.

The trick here would be finding a workable trade between the Rockets and Cavaliers.

Step 2: Searching for an Anderson taker

Ideally, Houston would match James' salary in large part with the $20.4 million owed Ryan Anderson in 2018-19. However, with two years left on Anderson's contract (he'll make $21.3 million in 2019-20) and with him falling largely out of the Rockets' playoff rotation, that's a tough sell. The New York Knicks' unwillingness to take back Anderson was a key factor in Houston's pursuit of Carmelo Anthony falling short of the goal line last summer.

Dealing James for a package centered on Anderson would likely push Cleveland deep into the luxury tax next season, so that idea is probably a nonstarter. Any trade involving Anderson would require a third team with cap space to take on his contract in exchange for future picks, allowing the Cavaliers to cut their payroll. Alas, Houston's first-rounders the next few seasons would have limited value with LeBron on the roster, and there will be more teams looking to shed salary than add it. So it would probably take at least two and maybe three first-rounders to persuade another team to take on Anderson -- without compensating Cleveland.

Instead, the Rockets may have to live with Anderson on their books and find another trade package for James.

Step 3: Building a LeBron trade without Anderson

Matching James' salary without involving Anderson is possible but more painful for Houston, which would have to give up key parts in return. Assuming the Rockets are limited to players currently under contract -- sign-and-trade rules would also be challenging on the Cavs' end of the deal -- Houston would have to trade basically everyone besides Harden and Anderson.

The Rockets would be required to send out at least $28.4 million in matching salary after the end of the July moratorium, and a package of Eric Gordon, Aaron Jackson, Nene, Chinanu Onuaku, PJ Tucker and Zhou Qi would add up to $29.4 million. (Houston would have to guarantee the 2018-19 salaries of Jackson and Zhou first, because otherwise their salaries would not count for trade purposes.)

This version of the trade sends out two of the Rockets' top four players in minutes played in the playoffs, which would hurt their depth. It would also hamper their 3-point shooting; Gordon and Tucker combined for 333 triples during the regular season, more than twice as many as LeBron's career-high 149. Still, those are sacrifices Houston GM Daryl Morey would happily make, just as he did giving up several contributors to land Paul last summer.

After all, James would slide into Tucker's role as starting power forward, and the Rockets would have their taxpayer midlevel exception (estimated at $5.3 million) to sign a backup shooting guard to replace Gordon.

The real question is whether Cleveland would sign off. Adding $29 million in payroll would put the Cavaliers some $16 million into the projected luxury tax for a team unlikely to seriously contend without James. So Cleveland would probably look to flip Gordon and Tucker, who should both have positive trade value because of reasonable contracts.

If the Cavaliers can't easily shed payroll elsewhere, they could probably maneuver their way under the tax line by using the stretch provision. Waiving and stretching George Hill, for example, would save Cleveland $14 million in 2018-19 because Hill's 2019-20 salary is guaranteed for just $1 million.

The Cavs would surely want a couple of future first-rounders for their trouble, after getting two of them, plus a swap option and two second-round picks, for signing-and-trading James to the Miami Heat in 2010 -- a move that did not force Cleveland to take on any salary in return. (A caution to Cavaliers fans: Don't expect a better return if James is traded again, since first-round picks are valued much more highly now than they were in 2010.)

Ultimately, I think Cleveland would sign on in order to get the first-round picks and whatever can be had for Gordon and Tucker. While not ideal, that option is better than James leaving outright in free agency with the Cavaliers getting no draft compensation.

Of course, there are many important variables before the two teams could even begin talking trade. First and most critically, LeBron has to decide Houston is the next place he's taking his talents, and to do so before the June 29 deadline to pick up his player option.

If that happens, however, there appears to be a path for James to join the Rockets.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23524190/lebron-james-houston-rockets-summer-here-how-happen-nba

HoustonCRT · Jun 11, 2018

So basically what they're saying is.. It's happening confirmed get the BBQ ready boys!

Dacamel · Jun 11, 2018

Is it time for the season opener yet?

Fullcourt · Jun 11, 2018

wouldn't steps 2 and 3 be different paths, i.e. steps 2a and 2b?

Air Langhi · Jun 11, 2018

I guess my key take away is we will know by june 29 what is going to happen. Basically two weeks from now.

macan · Jun 11, 2018

they gotta do that bahamas trip again

whiskeyred · Jun 11, 2018

Shocked they even ran something like this

Toffeeone · Jun 11, 2018

Ryno still have values around the league.

Cavs could take ryno and try to trade love instead. Love has more trade value then ryno.

Boston may take love or Philly.

Os Trigonum · Jun 11, 2018

media conspiracy

LosPollosHermanos · Jun 11, 2018

tucker can't go. Period.

Deuce · Jun 11, 2018

Basically the same route we have been talking for months. The only other element brought up is a bit more painful in moving Gordon+Tucker (vs Gordon+Anderson) in a LeBron move. And I am sure Morey would do it, but it would be painful to lose Tucker.

I have faith *IF* LeBron says get me to Houston, Morey would be able to find a way to move Anderson and keep Tucker.

chenjy9 · Jun 11, 2018

Anderson and Love, the new Twin Towers?

Manny Ramirez · Jun 11, 2018

Deuce said: ↑

Basically the same route we have been talking for months. The only other element brought up is a bit more painful in moving Gordon+Tucker (vs Gordon+Anderson) in a LeBron move. And I am sure Morey would do it, but it would be painful to lose Tucker.

I have faith *IF* LeBron says get me to Houston, Morey would be able to find a way to move Anderson and keep Tucker.
Click to expand...

I hope you are right about this.

Deuce · Jun 11, 2018

Manny Ramirez said: ↑

I hope you are right about this.
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What is tougher.....
1) Moving Anderson's contract in a LeBron trade
2) Having LeBron AGREE to come and do the opt-in

I think the 2nd one is the hurdle. Folks, we need Chris Paul's GREATEST ASSIST yet on this one.

Ziggy · Jun 11, 2018

Toffeeone said: ↑

Ryno still have values around the league.
Click to expand...

I think he might have some value, but we are in a tough spot. Similar to when we had Lin. A few teams wanted him, but we had no leverage and were forced into a bad deal just to save money.

Bobsputin · Jun 11, 2018

Deuce said: ↑

What is tougher.....
1) Moving Anderson's contract in a LeBron trade
2) Having LeBron AGREE to come and do the opt-in

I think the 2nd one is the hurdle. Folks, we need Chris Paul's GREATEST ASSIST yet on this one.
Click to expand...

3. Have Cleveland agree to Opt-in and trade.

sealclubber1016 · Jun 11, 2018

Having to move Tucker would really f**king suck.

Bobbythegreat · Jun 11, 2018

Bobsputin said: ↑

3. Have Cleveland agree to Opt-in and trade.
Click to expand...

That's probably the easiest of the bunch.

Vivi · Jun 11, 2018

Ziggy said: ↑

I think he might have some value, but we are in a tough spot. Similar to when we had Lin. A few teams wanted him, but we had no leverage and were forced into a bad deal just to save money.
Click to expand...

Ryan definitely has still some value...if you trade him alongside other assets

Deuce · Jun 11, 2018

Bobsputin said: ↑

3. Have Cleveland agree to Opt-in and trade.
Click to expand...

In theory I include that in #2. But when Cleveland was ANGRY with LeBron they still did a trade to Miami. They aren't angry at LeBron now. I think they would cooperate for assets to move forward.

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[ESPN] LeBron James to the Rockets? Here's how it could happen this summer

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