What we have to do to have a chance to defeat the Warriors

What do you mean by this? So good at what? Are you saying that Draymond Green is an elite post scorer? And he's only terrible because defenses collapse on him?

 

Another big key in this series is winning the bench matchups. This undercard of the Rockets-Warriors series may, in fact, go a long way toward determining the winner.

Overall, I think the Rockets match up adequately against the GS starters (sans Durant, who really only has one comparable matchup in the whole league--and that's LeBron), but it's Warriors bench that the Rockets have to contain. If Young, Livingston, Pachulia, David West, or even the recently signed Quinn Cook are causing havoc, there's little hope of containing the Warriors.

Fortunately, the Rockets have acquired many adjustable pieces for the purpose of winning these battles. For example, neutralizing David West might be Joe Johnson's only assignment in these playoffs. He has the size and ball skills to compete with him, and JJ might be able to provide a little relief to Nene. I could even see Anderson (the so-called Kraken) as useful partner here.

But more at the heart of the game, Gordon, Green, and Luc have to shoot and defend better than their counterparts off the bench.
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I'm curious to see MDA go toe to toe with Kerr on lineups. I expect that game one will unfold with a lot of experiments and quirky matchups.

 

Anderson has been in the rotation at points in this season, I can see why D'Antoni wouldn't put him back in but I hardly think he's off limits.

I see this series as a chess match. Sometimes you make moves pre-emptively, you don't always doggedly stick to what worked against vastly inferior teams. I'm not advocating any changes for Game 1 necessarily, but I am in favor of game-to-game strategy adjustments.

As far as Zhou Qi... Zhou Qi has shot about 1% in North America and weighs less than Earl Boykins. That's scrambling for answers.

 

I decided to check these numbers for fun because I hadn’t looked at them.

So far during the playoff we run PnR with a 24.5% frequency of the ball handler finishing the play. Add another 7.7% frequency the roll man finishes the play.

The ball handler is getting 0.98 ppp (tops) and the roll man is getting 0.89 ppp (13th).

Compared to the regular season numbers of the ball handler with a 17.6% frequency at 0.93 ppp and the roll man at a 8.3% frequency at 1.12 ppp.

The warriors are allowing 0.78 ppp in the playoffs (not the best but 5th) and they allowed 0.80 ppp during the regular season (7th best) to the ball handler out of pnr.

The warriors are allowing 1.38 ppp in the playoffs (15th) and they allowed 1.11 ppp during the regular season (21st) to the roll man out of pnr.

So, it appears the area we are going to want to exploit is the roll man (capela) having a bigger role and frequency.

 

Limiting Green is not the Key. It's how to slow down KD and Curry. Defensively, I don't think we will see the Warriors as committed as the Jazz throughout the series. It comes down to if they are more effective in limiting our super stars vs. we do that. I will trade slowing down KD for Green going off. Also it's not a cliche to play hard and limit turn overs. The first is probably not going to be an issue in this series. We don't need mindless cross court pass to get a one v four situation. Take care of the ball and execute. At this point, neither team will re-invent themselves.

 

We were in a roll agreeing with each other, but Qi? He's not an NBA player, probably will never be. Hopefuly I'm wrong, but I can't see him being able to help next season, let alone now. Anderson is a zero, but it's not fair to compare Qi to him once Qi is not even good enough to play in the G-League.

 

Thanks for looking into that brother! lol. Wow, it's so convenient to be spoon fed the truth. Anyway, I think Harden will get to the rim with better efficiency this series (No Gobert/Towns/Gibson.....that MATTERS) and he will also finish at a better rate. I expect this to get the Rockets back to playing their "game" ala the regular season when they were trouncing teams.

Sprinkle in ISO here and there trading off between CP3/Harden....it's pretty simple when stated...but this is the recipe that's made the Rockets who they are and GREAT.

I look forward to seeing the Rockets Worry them...

 

Could I get some stats on what the Jazz were doing as a comparison?

 

When you say you don't think the Worriers won't be as committed as Jazz defensively, can you expound on that? Thanks.

 

D'Antoni gave up on Ryno during game 2 of the Jazz series, IIRC. He entered the game, Jazz players eyes sparkled and they feasted on Anderson for three consecutive plays. He's not seen the floor again, apart from garbage time. He's that unplayable with our switching D, unfortunately. GSW always have Curry or Durant on the floor. Imagine any one of them going against Anderson. Coach wont let that happen. He may be forced to play less Capela and more Tucker, Ariza and LMM at 4 and 5, no way Ryno cracks the rotation, IMO.

 

While they are good defensive team, unlike Utah that's not their identity. Scoring probably will come a little easier against them v. Jazz. So I think Harden will have big nights more consistently. We will see.

 

Zero chance Qi will see minutes before Anderson.

 

Yeah I thought that was what you were meaning, but wanted to confirm. And I agree. I for one am glad to know that Harden/EGO/CP3 will not have to go up against Gobert anymore this series. It felt suffocating to score at the rim against the Jazz.

If Harden/CP3/Gordon can get to the rim and finish better this series (and they should), that's getting them back to playing the way they have been successfully in the regular season. I'll take those chances.

The Jazz did a pretty darn good job guarding the perimeter and the rim especially. Really took away what the Rockets wanted to do. If anything, that was at least a good training round for the Rockets to explore other ways to win a series. But yeah, I still think this series finishing at the rim will be more effective and open up the shooters more.

 

I'm not sure why you're talking about defense here, I agree, but it seems irrelevant. When it comes to Draymond whipping us from the low block, I really just don't agree. There's no reason to run to help on Draymond when he has the ball in the post because his shooting is not a threat. Throughout his entire career, reg season and playoffs, he has been an ineffective post scorer. His passing out of the post is clearly outstanding but that's no reason to double him, that's just going to open up his passes. Unless he's being defended by CP, a Draymond post shot is probably the worst possible shot they could get up. If a team with Durant, Curry, and Klay on the floor is going to be shooting Draymond Green post ups, that's a win for the rockets.

I guess we can agree that helping off on Draymond is a bad idea. Just seems to be for different reasons.

 

I think this is a pretty important stat I decided to look up and log.

(Playoffs Isolation)
Harden - 35.2% frequency at 1.04 ppp
Cp3 - 17.1% frequency at 1.23 ppp

(Regular Season Isolation)
Harden - 1.22 ppp on 720 possessions
Cp3 - 1.10 ppp on 297 possessions

(Playoffs Isolation Defense)
Curry - 2.25 ppp on 4 possessions

(Regular season Isolation Defense)
Curry - 0.98 ppp on 61 possessions