I want to make clear that the Astros are not “trash” like some people are claiming. The Astros are still a good team. However they have a couple massive holes that are unlikely to be filled internally and are keeping the Astros from being dominant.
In the playoffs, I trust Harris, Peacock, Devo, McHugh, and maybe Rondon - that's more than enough guys there. Maybe Whitley or other guys will join them as well. I agree with all of this. I think Altuve and Bregman are bigger concerns right now, because the other guys are easier to replace. But I also assume they will get hot sooner or later. But I don't think the offense *has* to be as good as last year, because our pitching is better. That said, I suspect at least 3-5 players will be on the postseason roster that aren't on the roster today - whether due to injuries or promotions or trades or whatever.
There are some people that should pretty simply be ignored on the last page. If you haven't you are probably doing yourself a disservice. Most of us agree there appears to be some clear spots to upgrade on our quest to repeat, but even as is this team is still really good.
We're just not getting timely hits. Once that turns around (and there's no reason to think it wouldn't) we'll be just fine. The pitching is too good for this team to go into long losing streaks. However, it IS frustrating to watch.
These wins matter now, though don't they? I get it's a long season and patience wins the race. But we need to address these needs sooner than later. Why not call up players to replace the corpses of Marisnick and Gattis at least?
Gattis and Jake need a stint on the DL to treat their IBS or back spasms or whatever other mystery ailment that might be bothering them. Derek needs to be sent to Fresno. Call up 3 of our AAAA players and give them their chance. If not now, then when?
While I doubt every hole can be fixed internally, Astros only need reasonable health and one of Tucker and Alvarez to stick to win 100 games. Provided the Astros don't need a starter at the deadline, it should be a lot easier for Luhnow to upgrade bullpen.
Those that feel like we can afford to wait to make changes due to our relatively good record (21-15) to this point, consider the following. Does anyone feel that our starting pitchers performance is sustainable? I dont. They are very good, but not this good. So, what would our record be if these guys were pitching at a sustainable pace? Close to .500 IMO. In a nut shell, we look better than we are. Or rather, the offense is worse than it first appears.
Cole and Verlander are over-performing, but Astros starters performing at a sustainable pace are likely still the best by a good margin. Even factoring in bullpen, Astros are the best at preventing runs. Astros offense has been the 10th best at scoring runs. It takes a lot of bad luck to be the best at run prevention and 10th best at run scoring to be close to 0.500. Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel, and Springer will hit better. Gattis and Marisnick will either hit better or be replaced. Fisher will probably be replaced unless he starts making contact more. He's been on a nice two week tear that he scolds every batted ball despite striking out 50% of the time. Offense will definitely rebound more than the pitching will crater (unless Astros have another bad year of SP health).
We would have to only have lost 3 more games than we have to be at .500. Id say our over-achieving SP staff has given us that easily. Scoring lots of runs is nice, but much of ours has been during blowouts rather than in tight games when we needed them.
When a team is really rolling, i.e. - on 10+ game winning streaks, or winning chunks of games at a time... its usually with some sort of over-the-head metric that's clicking at that given moment. Basically, the Astros have started the season on an amazing stretch of starting pitching and are at a 90+ win pace in large part because of it. At some point, the hitting will take over and also perform above expectations. At another point, the pitching will actually perform below expectations. In the end, I'd definitely expect the pitching to continue to do this to a point vs the hitting being excellent all year. Oswalt-Clemens-Pettite in 2005 is the closest local example I can remember of a starting staff having 3 Cy-worthy pitchers all dominating at the same time... its not unprecedented (and that team had one of the worst offenses in baseball... and still won 89+ games and the pennant).
There are only about 5 games that Astros have won by 1-2 runs. Yes, if Astros lost 80% of the games within 2 runs, they would be 0.500. That is not sustainable.
Last 4 teams to make it to the World Series... Dodgers 15-19 Cubs 16-15 Indians 17-17 ASTROS 21-15 It's not that we are terrible and the world is ending. We just have holes and some seem fixable with what we have in the minors. Fisher, Marisnick, and Gattis aren't just bad. They are awful. They can't make contact half the time and that has cost us a number of runs because they fail to move runners over with less than 2 outs let alone drive them in. Remember, the season started a little earlier. We are about 3 weeks away basically from what would normally be June 1st in the season. This is the time to evaluate and plan a strategy for the deadline. What I don't like is we aren't trying our own guys in the minors that are hitting really well. I would like to know if they can fill the holes and contribute before we dump another load of prospects in a trade for a hitter. Especially when it seems clear we need a big arm in the bullpen.
I agree that the issues the Astros need fixed are easier than getting a good starting pitcher at the deadline. Still I have no confidence that the outfield situation will be fixed this season by Tucker or Alvarez. It is possible but far more likely that neither will step in and provide what we need offensively from the position. My hope is that the Astros get a player as good as Beltre or better at the deadline to address the offensive woes. Adding a solid bat will help this offense a lot because it extends the line up. I would love to add a legitimate closer as well, I think it would rectify most of the issues in our pen, but I know asking for a good bat and a closer is really a stretch.
