Believe me, I am glad to see this start, but I’ll reserve judgement as Kim has not proven to be a stable person.
What you have is a nuke state in NK, if you call that VK, that is fine. Little Kim will never give up his nuke, the best he will agree to is no further testing for now.
This is really fascinating and, hopefully, a step toward meaningful peace. North Korea is a black box, so I don't imagine we'll ever know the full story on what has persuaded them to do this. My guess is a mixture of sanctions, post-Olympics dialogue, satisfaction with their current nuclear stockpile and, frankly, rhetoric from President Trump. If Trump's "fire and fury" threats actually played a role in this, kudos to him. I wish I could find the story (I can't remember which publication it was in), but there was a piece last year that detailed how North Korean analysts couldn't read Trump. They were asking the visiting American journalist what his opinion was about Trump's willingness to push the North to war. Nobody knew what was going on. Beyond Trump's rhetoric, I think the administration's willingness to send someone as high-level as Mike Pompeo to Pyongyang for secret talks should be applauded. It shows a seriousness to solving this issue in an adult way. I still have my reservations about the upcoming Trump-Kim summit, mainly because I do not trust President Trump to be prepared for stakes this high, but I'm willing to be wrong and admit that I'm wrong if things turn out well. You know what they say about broken clocks. The politics of North Korea have always fascinated me since almost all analysis is based in conjecture. I wouldn't be surprised if Kim Jong-Un's childhood in European schools, and his subsequent familiarity with the outside world, were factors in him wanting to "open up" his country. He must know that the DPRK cannot possibly last into the future on its current path and that the Chinese model is one with pursuing, albeit tentatively.
Another piece of context, when the current South Korean president was elected a lot of American conservatives were angry because they said this guy would get bent over by Kim. He had pledged to engage with Korea before the election, said he would look at getting rid of the American missile defense system, etc. There were even conservatives here who suggested that Kim backed off his own rhetoric to prevent a hardliner getting elected again in South Korea. I'm sure all of the people in State and the DoD are eyes wide open here, but I sure as hell hope that Trumps are open. His hype for this makes it really difficult for us to walk away and I'm also concerned that the liberal in SK may be soft. Engaging with NK was his dream.
No, what happened is that North Korea was on it's knees and was allowed back up. The sanctions of the past administrations had absolutely strangled North Korea, and over the last few years North Korea was not able to remain as isolated because of technology leaking into the country. Hell, the US had even been successful in pressuring China to step back from North Korea. Kim did what he needed to do so that he could remain in power. Was it the right decision? I don't know..... but North Korea was very close to collapse.
Let me first state I am not highly optimistic in the outcome of this agreement over the long term. Additionally its idiotic to think NK is going to sneak attack SK if the US leaves. SK's presence in the global economy is too significant for the rest of the western world to just sit by idle. That said, the previous administrations (and I am not referring to just the Obama administration) were never serious about attacking NK. NK knows this and this is why they constantly provoked. The Trump administration was serious. We just can't show up in SK with a bunch of troops and planes and attack. There are approvals and networks required to be setup for these kind of operations. Its also very expensive and its not very secretive. We had begun this process. We were in the advance stages of troop buildup and NK knew this.
"North Korea was very close to collapse"........how? NK did all their nuclear tests and missile tests, and became a country with nuclear power. The sanctions and pressure actually speed up the process. NK wanted nuclear weapon. They got it. Now they want peace, everyone go to NK .......sounds like a winner to me. I don't see any sign of collapsing.
They've been close to collapse for decades now. They said **** it and developed nuclear weapons that can blow up the US. Now they are looking to be rewarded for it. NK played the game and won.
But do we actually have good solid evidence? NK is/was isolated and very secretive. Can we trust the "evidence" we have? How much confident do our intel have on the info we have of NK? I have heard not very high, or even high... I have strong doubt about how much we know of NK leader. What have changed? 1- Moon (SK president) want to directly negotiate with NK. He want peace and an end to the stalemate with NK. (He was attacked by the opposite party and some in the west for "appeasement"). This wasn't just talk. He took concrete actions toward this with his talk with China, US and with the Olympic. 2- NK has achieved and demo'd a level of Nuke capability. Contrary to "popular" belief that NK has no chance, the US, Japan and China knows that NK has crossed the line and can do nuke level damage to them. Kim Jong Un might be evil (I'm not even sure I can trust all the stories about how evil he is), but I see that is somewhat irrelevant. More relevant is, Is he a crazy maniac that is willing to restart a war once the US leave? No. His thread of nuke wouldn't stop the US from entering the war. Even with his nuke capability, I think he knows his very survival depends on not doing crazy. NK peace with SK and joining the world economy could very much be what we have seen from China and other Asian countries. Once the economy pick up and the people enjoy a higher standard of living, there would naturally be a growing population within NK that will become more aware and educated. That will lead to some progressive transformation inside NK. That's the path I hope they can go toward. Would be a huge win for everyone.
Trump didn't do s**** and honestly no Korean believes Trump is the reason this happened. Lmao delusional Trump fans. It's still early. Alot of obstacles still. Premature ejaculation by Trump voters trying to claim credit for Trump
I don't think anything has changed except that he now has a legit nuclear capability. First, that we always tell ourselves that the Kims are crazy is not helpful. They may have acted crazy but they were never crazy. It is a wellworn negotiating tactic to proverbially take the steering wheel and throw it out the window. It makes the counterparty afraid you'll do something irrational and give you extra concessions to make sure you don't. We've pulled punches on North Korea because we didn't want to risk a hot war. Second, I don't think this is an about-face at all. I would guess that this is simply the next step in Un's plan. First, he needed to consolidate his own power at home. Then, he needed to secure a legitimate nuclear capability. Now, he's in a stronger negotiating position so he's ready to come to the table, play nice and maybe get some relaxation of the economic sanctions. He will not be giving up the nukes he has. If he gives up his nukes, I'll quit my job as armchair quarterback forever. I don't think it is a question of whether or not Trump should get credit. I think Un gets the credit because he's been calling the shots. He gets to negotiate with the POTUS while having a demonstrated nuclear capability. Trump did what he was supposed to, putting pressure on North Korea to deter them from nuclear weapons. But now they have them. Trump probably could not have stopped them with anything short of actual war. We'll see if Trump can negotiate the nukes out of North Korea, but I really don't think that's possible. That is the key to NK's bargaining power. They might agree to a limit on number, or to stop further testing, or some other half step.
To answer the poll question. Yes, if this is direct talk between NK and SK, they can get there. The US, China, Japan, rest of the world should sit on the sideline.
He provoke but never crossed the line. Once NK was on the axis of evil, he took actions to be sure he can deter. I think there is more evidence that shown he is stable, smart, and practical. (doesn't mean he's not evil).
I think Trump's economic threats to China are trickling down to NK. They are dependent on China. China clearly doesn't want tariffs on their goods here People talk about the trade imbalance but we must be China's biggest customer. They are dependent on us
