Predict Capela's salary in Restricted FA and whether we match!

Only 5 teams project to have cap space this summer (as of right now).

Atlanta Hawks
LA Lakers
Dallas Mavericks
Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers

Now out of these 5 teams we can respectfully say Indiana has no interest spending their cap on a center with both Myles Turner and Sabonis on their roster.

That leaves 4 teams. Let’s take a bit closer of a look.

Atlanta Hawks.
They are in complete rebuild mode. They have a couple of big contracts already so they could be hesitant. Especially considerring they have the plumlee contract already. I see them more trying to trade pieces rather than add significant ones. Not too worried about them. I see them continuing their trend of acquiring veterans due to expire in order to flip them at the deadline, ie Belinelli.

LA Lakers
They are BIG game hunting. They want to pursue 2 max players, although it will take moves to be possible. Absolutely gonna target lebron and there is all the Paul George rumors. They could strike out on Lebron, sign PG13 and then target Capela, but that’s waiting later into free agency so they plays into our hand. While I can see them target capela I’m not too worried about it because any offer sheet would be late when we have decided which path we are taking in regards to capela.

Dallas Mavericks
Definitely a scary team to watch for. Cuban has targeted our players before so I surely wouldn’t put it past him. He likes to take risks on young players and give them the max like Parsons and Barnes. He is someone I am absolutely worried about. There are a lot of rumors on him targeting cousins though. They absolutely could use a big time center and I see him testing cousins first but Dallas is the biggest threat imo.

Chicago Bulls
Young team with potential going forward. They are in need of a center and capela fits the age group of this teams young core. They have some good young talent in markennen, lavine, portis and dunn. They will be adding a high end talent in the draft and may be wanting to transition right into being competitive and capela fits that dream. This is the second biggest threat imo.

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There are some other teams that can makes some moves to create the cap space necessary but I’m omitting them because I don’t have time for all that hypothetical talk.

Now as to the market. As we all know, it only takes 2 teams to create a bidding war. In the case of restricted free agency it takes only 1 team because automatically the rockets are 1 of the 2.

But this summer is looking to be very frugal. Everyone appears to be cheap after that ballon summer.

Helping our cause is the amount of available centers this free agency. A lot which could be had at a much friendly discount rate in this frugal free agency market. Some of the names besides Clint are

DeMarcus Cousins
DeAndre Jordan (possible opt in candidate)
Nerlens Noel
Jusuf Nurkic
Brook Lopez
Alex Len
Lucas Nogueira
Greg Monroe
Jahlil Okafor

While I think capela is worth the max, and I predict he will get it or very close to it. There are a lot of factors working in our favor to possibly retain capela at a less than max contract.

I would be ecstatic to get him for around 18-20m per if it plays out perfect for us but his max isn’t a bad contract and not something I expect us to back down from.

Which would also scare teams because we ALWAYS wait the full 3 days before deciding and hold up the opposing teams cap space, which is why some teams stay away from restricted free agents.

 

Mark Cuban will for sure put in a large offer sheet. (...once he loses out on their reportedly prime target DeMarcus Cousins)

Also not expecting Capela to wait for the Rockets to conclude their business.

 

To all that say he's going to get a max contract extension. I'm not so sure. I negotiate real estate deals for a living. I'm not claiming to be the world's foremost expert on negotiations, but I have some understanding and insight into them. And from where I'm standing the Rockets are in a fantastic bargaining position.

1. The market is flooded with quality centers. DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, Clint, Brook Lopez, Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Jusuf Nurkic, Dewayne Dedmon, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor (and even Alex Len and Lucas Noguiera) will all be free agents.
2. More importantly, rumors are floating about that DeAndre Jordan is not only interested in joining the Rockets, but that he's willing to take a discount to join the Rockets. "Clint, we love you and we want to bring you back but how can we justify paying you X dollars when DeAndre Jordan says he'll come play here for half that?"
3. Clint is 22 years old and the success he's finding and the resulting hype are still new to him. I find it difficult to believe he wouldn't question himself. "Can I play at this level without Harden and Paul?"
4. I know a kid like Clint in line for his first really big contract has to follow the dollars, but there are only 3-4 situations in the league that are even arguably as desirable as playing for the Rockets right now. And, as @BigMaloe pointed out, "...there are currently only 5 teams projected to have cap space this summer (as of right now)."
5. He seems to have gotten pretty close with his teammates.
6. The center position has unarguably become less important in the modern NBA.

Now I understand that if somebody like Cuban comes in and offers him a full max contract the Rockets will be forced to either match it or let him walk. I get that. But with all of the quality centers out there, his restricted free agent status and the fact that right now the hottest commodity in the NBA is versatile swingmen who can shoot the 3 and play quality d on multiple positions; I'm just not so sure he'll be a top target for anyone. Why would you offer Clint the max when he's restricted and you could probably sign Nerlens for half that and he's not restricted?

We'll see. But I don't believe it's a sure bet he'll get max dollars regardless of how well he plays.

 

But to be fair. . . Clint has made some catches and moves in traffic that I have NEVER seen DJ Do . . .. .
Clint's Swiss Step is becoming more and more effective
He has softer hands and a lighter touch than DJ

I'm TEAM CLINT on this one
I like DJ . . he manhandles and battles the likes of Steve Adams better than clint
but That is one team

Here is another thing
I have EVERY confidence that CLINT WILL BE *BETTER* NEXT YEAR
I cannot say the same for DJ

ONE MORE THING - No one can say Clint is not worth 20 Mill/Year while he can look to his left and see the softest Power forward in the league making 20 mill a year . .. . .

CC >>> RA

Rocket River

 

Look at Dallas

Harrison Barnes + Capela + old Dirk + Nerlens Noel + A high Draft Pick that works out . . . .
That team could make the playoffs - They could go 42-40 easily and build for a future

If you think Dallas would not make that Max Offer?
I think they would

Rocket River

 

I'm not sure I believe any team paying significant dollars to Dirk and playing him significant minutes can make it to the playoffs in this stage of his career. He is so terrible on the defensive end now. He can still score some buckets but he ain't anywhere near what he used to be on that end either.

 

Clint would be terrible anywhere but GS and here.... He better take this bread we bout to give him and "STFU" ...

 

Dirk would start in name only.
He'd only be a 10~15 minutes

Rocket River

 

3yr/39m

 

I am not here to argue how much money Capella deserves, my point is if we want to compete for Championship, there is no way we should let him walk without getting anything back. If we don't get rid of EG, Anderson, and PJ, we don't have room to sign any all-star level players. And even if we clear those contracts, we can sign at max one all-star player. For Lebron, it is worth it; but for players like DJ, exchanging EG/Anderson/PJ/Capella just for him will make us much worse.

 

At one point . . .. I thought losing him was acceptable if it meant getting RA off the books
now . .. i am not so sure

Rocket River

 

Shooting wish Dirk is doing phenomenal this season. Defense though (I have watched some) I am not sure I have seen much worse from a player. He is stiff and slow beyond comparison.

 

Bismack Biyombo signed a 4yr 72M deal with Orlando during the spike offseason.
Supposedly Nerlens Noel was offered and declined a four-year, $70 million deal (dumb AF).

So, I would predict Capela's deal to be inline with those numbers.

 

I mean I guess.

It’s not like jordan is even playable vs the warriors.

His game suffered the last 4 years against that team.

Capela is better defensively for teams like golden state, I don’t see how that’s debatable.

I don’t really care about how to defend anyone else. If you can’t beat the warriors it doesn’t matter that you can be physical with the thunder and spurs.

What does that do for this team?

Warriors or bust that’s the only way we’re winning a championship. The title is always going through them for the next 5 years.

I’m not a jordan hater id think long and hard about a clean swap for him if it was just clint but Clint is the far superior offensive player and we need Clint’s offense.

Of course clint playing with harden and cp3 helps him out a lot but your severely underrating Clint’s touch around the basket with either hand.

He’s become one of the better finishers around the hoop on non dunks.

That’s crucial for our succes.

 

Dallas and Atlanta are also going to draft in top 10, maybe top 5, since they have 2/3 spots outside of center filled, if there're a center available in that range i expect them to draft one instead of paying a free agent (which is not even an all star caliber player) 90/100M.

Atlanta has Schroder at the 1, Prince at the 3 and Collins at the 4.
Dallas has Smith at the 1, Barnes at the 3, Curry and Matthews (if they can't dump him) at the 2.

Anybody knows how many centers are projected to be drafted in top 10?

 

If I could get capela . .. I'd take him over anyone in College
Mainly because I can get a GREAT 1-2-3 or even a 4 from the college ranks
that can contribute right away

Rocket River

 

That might be the case for the Mavs since Barnes is not exactly that young and maybe they'll still have guys like Dirk and Matthews, but not sure about the Hawks, their core is super young and needs years to develop, i just don't see a reason for them to max a 24 years old role player (?) free agent just to keep sucking for the years of that contract...but in the end, i feel like for both teams, if they get a top 3/5 pick, i don't see how they would pass on Ayton, Bamba...and maybe others, like i said i don't really follow college basketball so i don't know how many centers are projected in top 10 other than those two.

According to reports the Hawks did go after Noel last summer btw, they didn't sign him in the end, i wonder if they just couldn't reach a deal or they didn't trust Noel enough to pay him.

 

Barnes is 4 in Dallas, that's why Dirk starting at 5 spot.

As for Noel, he's not staying in Dallas. In addition to Dirk, there are 2 guys playing in front of him as well.

 

Barnes is actually starting at the 3 with Kleber at the 4 and Dirk at the 5, i guess he plays a lot of minutes at the 4 during the game, makes sense, but still i'd say the see him as a 3 if that's where he starts.

As for Noel yeah, he's not staying there, that's why i didn't talk about him

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22263630/nba-financial-crunch-coming

"Add it all up, and it's a bad year to be a free agent -- or a team looking to reduce salary."

Im here for this....If this is truly the case with Capela.......sign him up! Would be ecstatic to have Clint at $12-$13 million a season.