I've watched game of thrones long enough to know that whatever has been happening in East Palm for the last 3 weeks is nothing compared to whatever the f in going on in North Palm.
MLB.com put up an article today about how severely Marwin exceeded his projected offensive output in 2017. Looking at all qualified batters from last season, the Astros actually had 3 of the top 15 hitters who most exceeded their pre-season projections (Altuve, Marwin, Jake). https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...unch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=200#results While that might suggest it would be unreasonable to expect the Astros offense to repeat its 2017 level of production, the fact that the team has gotten rid of 4 of its 5 weakest hitters (Beltran, Aoki, Centeno, Maybin), and is slated to give most of that quartet's >800 ABs to Gattis/White/Fisher suggest there is also reason to expect improvement in the bottom of the batting order. I'll go out on a limb and predict 910 runs scored in 2018.
The last team to bust 900 was the 2009 Yanks scored 915, If the Astros are going to bust 900 I hope it's over 915. I think it will depend on the pitching they face. If the division rolls out a load of scrubs on the mound most of the season then look out.
wh It's looking like the Rangers & Athletics pitching will be weak all around. The Angels may be so-so in their starting pitching but their pen looks weak; whereas for the Mariners it looks like their pen is a little stronger than their starting rotation. Overall. though, I expect the Astros to beat up pretty well on the AL West pitching. The number of blowouts (that the Astros are on the winning side of) will also play a big part in determining whether the team can hit 900+ runs. Last year the Astros scored 8 or more runs in 37 of their games. If they could do that in, say, 40 of their games this year, it will help a lot in reaching 900 runs total.
I looked a little deeper yesterday, and the division may not be as easily won as last season. Houston is still clearly the best team, but the Angels have a really good team. And the Rangers, A’s, and Mariners, while not “good”, aren’t tanking. All 3 of those teams have potentially deep lineups. Seattle has a weak rotation but a good bullpen. The Rangers have a potentially deep rotation although it bears a lot of risk. The A’s have a mediocre pitching staff but I wouldn’t necessarily call it weak.
There's definitely more depth to the division. However, I just don't see the Angels as having a really good team. IMO they're an ~85 win team. Their pitching staff is extremely shallow and if Ohtani doesn't deliver in his first season then they might very well find themselves in the conversation of the worst pitching staff in the division. Their lineup is better than last season, but adding Kinsler (way past his prime and coming off the worst year of his career and projected to be below league average based on wRC+) and Cozart (on the wrong side of 30, coming off a career season and only expected to be a hair above league average) doesn't give them an intimidating lineup IMO. Trout will keep doing Trout things. Upton will likely have a nice year. Calhoun is a slightly above average player. And maybe Ohtani does have great success as both a pitcher and a hitter. But even then you're talking about a team still without any depth to their pitching staff or their lineup. Will they be better than last season? Most likely. Will they be a legit playoff team? That's very much up for debate.
Paxton, Ohtani, and Richards are the only AL West starters who I think will give the Astros major problems. And Ohtani hasn't been tested in the MLB yet; he could be big flop. Edwin Diaz, Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, and Alex Claudio are projected to be some of the tougher relievers in the AL West. Of those four, only Parker and Diaz pitched well against the Astros last year. The Astros hit Bedrosian and Claudio pretty hard. But definitely, it's not going to be a cakewalk in 2018, and the Astros need to focus on winning the division first before they get too preoccupied with the playoffs.
Angels are such an interesting team because they might have 15 WAR tied up in 2 players (Trout and Ohtani). They’ve done a good job of filling in around them but anything happens to either one of them and their playoff aspirations are probably toast. I’m higher on Skaggs, Shoemaker, and Heaney than most.
That's a fair point. We know Trout is a safe bet to accumulate AT LEAST 7-8 WAR and Ohtani (if he is an above average/good hitter and a good pitcher) could very well put up right around 6-7 WAR. Like you said, if Trout or Ohtani goes down for an extended amount of time (or Ohtani turns out to be a bust) then their hopes of contending for a playoff spot fo out the window. That's fair. Their rotation has potential. It's just a matter of whether or not they all stay healthy/live up to their potential.
If this roster is relatively healthy this season the division should be a cake walk. As recently stated the Astros lost their 3 weakest hitters. They also have a full season of Verlander in place of Fiers 155 innings. They added a proven arm in Cole over Musgrove which should give them 175+ innings and in turn save the bullpen a tremendous load. Speaking of bullpen Smith and Rondon project to be more serviceable than Gregerson. Factor in the growth of the core and this team could be better than last year. And what if the front office adds another difference maker by the trade deadline? What about the youth that is still coming on? There is a good chance someone could contribute regularly. The only place I see concern is catcher and a lefty in the pen. McCann will be 34 and Gattis isn't a good defensive catcher by most accounts. Sipp isn't a confidence builder. With all that went wrong last season, health wise, that team won the division 21 games. There are no givens in sports but if any team is favored to have a cake walk division it's the defending champs.
To refresh my mind, we went: A's-------- 12-7 Angels--- 12-7 Rangers- 12-7 Mariners- 14-5 vs these teams. Even though we have improved ourselves somewhat, I dont expect us to surpass a 50-26 record vs our division in 2018. I expect to do well, but 3-5 games off last years pace.
The Indians look to have the easiest job of winning their division; the Twins will probably finish a distant second in the AL East. I just want to make sure the Astros don't get overconfident about walking away with the division, to the point that possibly they let the Angels go on a couple long winning streaks and surprise everybody in September. By all accounts they are keeping everything in the proper perspective. I don't think Hinch will allow the players to start taking any of the opponents too lightly. Heck, even the lowly White Sox swept the Astros at one point last year.
50-26 is a .657 percentage. While very good I honestly think the could top that by a few games but I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped to 46-30. Health is the factor. Here's an article about the Astros offense https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-astros-offense-could-be-historically-good/c-265498460
I'd think the fact that, by the players accounts, they've been in FLA for weeks already would tell you they're not assuming anything. Like going into last season, I have no expectations other than they should be really good. I hope there's no hangover that puts them in a position like the Cubs had to dig out of last season. I'm getting the sense they saw that and are doing everything possible to prevent it from happening to them. The division has improved...well, at least a couple of the teams have. The Mariners and Angels will be tougher but we're still significantly better and they'll be fighting it out with most of the AL East for the Wild Card spots. Also, the Twins are in the AL Central...but you're right. Cleveland is going to run away with that division. KC is going to be bad. The White Sox are still in the beginning stages of their rebuild. The Twins are young and talented but I don't think they have the pitching to stay with Cleveland over the course of a season.
Fangraphs ZIPs and Steamer both have the Astros as the best team in the majors and way ahead of the revamped Angels. Yes, a hangover is possible but we're talking about the deepest lineup in modern MLB and that's even before Ludnow likely upgrades the DH position later on to provide more punch. And we add another innings eater in Cole at worst, while the bullpen has more arms to get through the grueling season. And overall the core pieces are all young players more likely to trend up than down. The team is protected against everything but just some weird, widespread crapping the bed or injuries.
My bad, meant to write AL Central not East. The main thing the Astros have to avoid is a prolonged period of not playing up to their potential or letting clubhouse issues get in the way of playing, like we saw in August 2017 and April 2016. They're good and they're deep, but August last year showed they are not invincible. It's one reason that I'd be reluctant to trade away McHugh or Gattis, even though they are pretty easily replaced and could net a nice return of prospects or a MLB-ready piece. Shipping out guys who have contributed well over the past few years would threaten to spoil the good mood in the clubhouse, much like what happened in early August last year when the non-waiver trade deadline passed without making a major acquisition.
I expect that Marwin will regress to above average, but not fringe all-star ability. If he keeps playing at last years level, he should be the starting LF, case closed. Here is to hoping Marwin can replicate last years production..... Depth and how the team manages the baseball long tenuous season will be critical. Astros last year had enough bandages to keep afloat while key injuries lingered. I think likewise they have some talented players waiting. Martes, Paulino, Reed, Kemp, are a few guys who should be dipping more than their toes in the major league waters. Cole, Verlander, Keutchel, Mccullers, Morton are as formidable starting rotation you can get in MLB. Peacock and NcHugh serve as viable 6th and 7th type starters, and give you exceptional depth. Martes and Paulino will likely be refining their arsenal at AAA as viable rotation/starter depth; maybe even trade chips. I think the Astros should expect another 100+ win season. But since baseball is a marathon, pace is the key to it all. Find their pace and concretely expound on it; the talent is there, they just need to harness the chemistry and synergy.
It's been announced that Aoki is returning to his former club in Japan. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/nori-aoki-signs-japan-yakult-swallows-npb.html
