[Adv Stats] How the Rockets look on Deep 3s vs Others

There was a time when the position you played mostly dictated where you were on the court - centers in the paint, PFs in the opposite high post, and SG and SF in the wings, PG at the top of the key. The way the league is heading(and specifically our team) you are almost starting to see those roles changing with the center playing anywhere inside the 3pt line and also being the primary screener, the other big being a corner 3 guy, your two best playmakers being at the top right and top left 3pt line(so they have options of where to go on a screen, and the last offensive player finding whatever spot is available.

FWIW, I think the strategy is definitely a winning strategy but Morey didn't have the personnel to initially implement it. Last year was really the first year we had the right personnel and this year's roster is even better suited to the strategy(and we picked up defense along the way!)

 

this is probably the crux of the discussion.

That aside, I also apologize for retorting too aggressively. My bad!

See... I get that this was DM's strategy, I just find it curious that he started playing it up about 14 months ago when they ended up with Gordon/Ryno, after missing on Horford/Bazemore (though strategy might have been the same, both of those guys were seen as stretch guys). Didn't hear a lot about volatility/variability from him before then.

It's basically a, "Well, I can't get better players so let's see if this variability thing works" strategy... which is ok... and it's had to argue didn't work in the regular season.
But it seemed like OKC was a decent bench player away from making that a real series, that it didn't work really at all against what I view as a comparably talented Spurs team, and as a result, didn't even get to see if it would work against GSW.

And I'm just as interested in variability, all else being equal, then variability because you know you're team isn't equal. We all know better players are better. talent wins, over strategy. But all else being equal, if TS%, PPP or whatever are the same, is variability good?

And I'm probably more interested in seeing actual statistical analysis of volatility, both by team and players. Like a quick run of Klay Thompson and his average gamester for the year was like 14+, with a 7.5+ standard deviation... so basically just as volatile as Ryan... which really surprises me.

There are no "consistency" stats in sports... which is interesting.

Maybe an opportunity to create a new stat, lol!

 

what are the names of "so many perimeter shooters"? Any of them better than CP3? We kept all of our best shooters, and we got CP3 to help them shoot more efficiently.

 

Everytime I wonder why Ryno is still on the team... I come back to this article... Thx OP (not saying he is not tradeable, but it helps me understand why he is still here... besides the contract)

 

Cleverly disguised Ryan Anderson only fan thread

 

is it just me or his release here looks slow. no wonder he can't get shots up every time he's open

 

It is slow and kind of flat footed, more like a slow set shot. But he's still gotta chuck EG style, that just alone gets the D's attention.

SIL

 

I think his release is quick but his footwork is slow.

 

Too much is being made of long distance 3's with Ryno here. The man is shooting 33% on all threes at home this season. That means his long 3's at home......lower than that. Opponents are willing to give him that shot and simply diving at him to distract him. They know he can't drive on them. And they'd rather him shoot that bomb than for the ball to be in Harden's, Paul's, or Gordon's hands. And he knows it. Everybody knows it.

In fact you can see the opponents are pushing him just enough outside that his shot mechanics are distorting as he lunges to get the ball to the rim.

It's not working. And the whole league knows it. We need good, solid open threes that are there because Harden and Paul created the shot. A quick release (like what you see from Kuzma, Uthoff, others) right at the three point line by a good shooter is JUST AS EFFECTIVE (really more so) as parking Anderson 28 feet away and expecting him to launch from there with distorted mechanics and a much slower release after he has to gather himself to get that bomb off.

We have reached the point of absurdity with our analysis on maximum "spacing" with Anderson. We've got Green rusting on the pine now with everybody healthy. And he's got just as much range as Anderson and he can actually drive or cut and finish up top when overplayed, things Anderson can't do! We simply do not need the very tiny benefit (I'm being generous) that Anderson launching from 27 feet gives us. Especially when we're already weak on the defensive interior even without him in the game with him in the game out weak defensive interior is made even weaker.

If we're gonna keep Anderson, then for goodness sake drop him into the corner where he's gonna give you a much quicker release three ball that is much closer to 50% accurate than 30% he's probably hitting the bomb at while playing at home. The other benefit if that is if he misses, at least we don't have his turtle legs trying to get back in transition defense. We'd have a better perimeter defender up top to get back.

The true "bombers" on this team are Gordon and Green. Quicker releases back there and better accuracy. Plus they have other things they can help with.

Let's be real about Anderson and his game. I love analytics as much as anybody. But this is why you watch games. Analytics simply hasn't dived deep enough to explain what I just explained by observation, except for the fact that Anderson is a terrible shooter at home.

 

Anderson should be in the corner more often when playing at home. Or get him his looks there early in the game to get his confidence up before moving back to his familiar spot above the break.

But the problem with this strategy is that Anderson will not be as involved in PnR which both Harden/Paul rely on to create room to penetrate or get switched to a bigger lesser defender on perimeter. Everything has consequences.

 

Rockets take and make more deep 3’s than any other team in NBA, that includes GSW.

 

Watching Anderson at this point is painful because all a team has to do is just "close out" on him just a little and that hesitation causes him to put the ball on the floor. Just no confidence in his shot.

If the Rockets keep Anderson past the trade deadline, they need to get him more action in the 2nd unit with CP. That stretch in December where CP was getting Anderson good looks vs backup defenses is a prime example.

 

Ryno should play most of his minutes with CP3 on, for sure. CP3's passes are far cleaner than Harden's and has easier angles to get the ball to Ryno than does Harden who goes to the cup and hits the corner 3 man, or Capela at the rim. Until opponents are daring Ryno to shoot those 26-28 footers though I still think he's pretty damn valuable for spacing.