Usually pretty hard for a guy whose calling card is speed to be effective from age 32-36. I pegged Cain as a good value at <$70M and a rip-off at >$110M, so I think Milwaukee is getting a decent deal, although losing the draft pick hurts. It’ll be interesting to see what some of these remaining guys get. I think once Darvish and Martinez sign we will see the floodgates open. Still ~40 guys worthy of major league deals who will need to sign in the next 30 days.
Very reasonable considering that draft pick they would give up is in the third round. Amount of years surprised me, but value per year is good with reduced draft cost.
His range is similar to a chair. Are you seriously bringing fielding percentage into this, when Marisnick has committed one error in LF. Elite bat is also an interesting description for a guy with an OPS around .800 and is generally considered a platoon player.
Feels like this Cain signing sets the market for position players. JD Martinez should get ~4/5 years $90-110 million. Hosmer maybe 4/5 years $70 million. I think our best option right now is probably Lucroy @ 2 years, $20 million. You'd probably have to move Gattis, but that shouldn't be too difficult. That gives you some depth and a little more flexibility than signing an outfielder.
I think Martinez gets closer to 5 years around 120-130 million and Hosmer will get a longer deal because he is only 28. I would think 7 years around 150-160 million. He has offers of 7 years 147 million from the Royals and 7 years 140 million from the Padres. I have mixed feelings on Lucroy. It would be a nice luxury but should we spend the money on another bullpen arm or a left fielder like Carlos Gonzalez?
Seems to me that we can mix and match the outfield reasonably well. Fisher could take a step forward, and let's not forget the year Marisnick was having until the injury. Plus Marwin will get time in LF. If we do need a piece in the bullpen, we can make a deal at the deadline...no need to do it now. Lucroy gives us a quality bat and a great platoon with McCann. If you think in terms of wants (we don't have needs), it would be nice to have a lefty reliever, platoon catcher and quality outfielder. Of those 3, the best player available in free agency, excluding JD Martinez (who is going to get paid), is Lucroy. Seems like the kind of signing that solidifies your offseason.
One can be both elite and a platoon player. His ops with the platoon advantage is elite. The way I described using him above is how he can fit in Houston’s lineup and get the most benefit. Everyone saying putting him in LF for ~60 games would portend some kinds of disaster is being pretty silly. He’d never be in LF on the road, only in Minute Maid where he’d have less ground to cover. And even then, he’d never be there at the end of a close game since they’d have Marisnick available as a defensive replacement. The depth of Houston’s roster allows them to add a player like Duda without inheriting too much risk due to platoon splits or defensive limitations.
Astros like flexibility, and Astros roster will likely only have three backups..a catcher, an OF, and Marwin. He's not a catcher or Marwin. Astros aren't going to play road games with three OFs. Duda's LF experience so far suggests he is comparable to Gattis in left. Astros tried Gattis in left for 11 games and decided Marisnick without being able to hit was more valuable in left even for home games. If Astros wanted a bad defender in left for home games that could hit right handers, they would go with Marwin. I've been wrong about a few things this offseason, but if Astros spend money on a position player, I hope that guy is capable of starting without the need for platoon arguments or position switches. if not, save it for a pitcher or a trade that can get a guy like that can start.
This. If we were having a discussion about trading Gattis and acquiring Duda, I guess that could be a discussion worth having. You can't have both on the same team.
'17 Lucroy: .265/.345/.371/.716; 84 OPS+ '17 Gattis: .263 /.311/.457/.767; 110 OPS+ I'm by no means a big fan of Gattis' - but not sure I'd dump a single ounce of resources into *possibly* upgrading him - especially when that possibility, based on last year, is fairly slim.
Astros - 98 Angels - 88 Mariners - 81 Rangers - 78 A's - 77 For reference, they projected the Astros to win the division in 2017 with 88 wins. They actually nailed all 6 division winners but only got 1 wild card team right (Yankees). They're also projecting Kyle Tucker makes an appearance this year and both Keuchel and Verlander surpass 200 IP.
Duda has 111 career games in LF, Gattis 59, so not sure how well that comparison holds up. I don’t necessarily think Duda should be Houston’s primary free agent target. All things being equal, CarGo, Lucroy, and several other LF-capable LH bats make more sense. But if none of those other guys are available in Houston’s price range and Houston can get Duda at a very low cost, I’d rather have him on the opening day roster than Fisher or Stassi.
LF defense in MMP matters. Less space to be sure, but I think that matters more for arm strength then anything else. The LF need to handle balls off the wall, against the wall, and to the right of the wall. I don't consider his offense to be elite even against just RHP. Elite implies he's among the best in baseball. He ranked 71st last year in wRC+ last year (450+PA). He was 55th against RHP (300PA minimum).
It holds up a lot better than assuming a guy can play left when his team has decided to play him further down the defensive spectrum. His team just wasn't as smart as the Astros and it took them longer to make the determination. Playoffs don't begin opening day. If one of Fisher, Marisnick, and Tucker cant hack the OF by the July deadline, spend resources at the July deadline on someone better than Duda in the OF. Spending resources on a guy that is best suited for DH only makes sense if Gattis is traded. He's likely better than Gattis at DH (though probably not worth cost to upgrade), but the OF spot is probably not for him.
One of the underrated aspects of the Astros this past year was roster flexiblity. They could have an injury at any offensive position and not miss a beat - Correa gets hurt and Marwin goes into the everyday lineup. McCann gets hurt and Gattis plays most days. etc. They very rarely had to dip into the minors for their everyday lineup, with Fisher being the only guy who got any significant amount of time, if I remember right. The last thing the Astros will do, IMO, is acquire any positonally-challenged players.
Yeah the last thing they’d do is sign a guy who was so defensively limited they had to hold a burial service for his glove. #beltran
He was signed for one reason: veteran leadership on a young team. It's something they have no need for anymore. Besides that, he's the perfect example of what they don't want - once his bat fell off, he had basically no on-field purpose or place to play on the team.
