I guess Trout, Simmons, Hamilton, Jackie Bradley, Jr. are over--rated as well since their defense appears to have peaked early. There are guys that peak defensively later than 26, but there is nothing abnormal about defense peaking early. Range is typically the dominant factor in a players defensive ability. Players typically add muscle and loss speed while they are in their early and mid 20s. Losing some on the defensive end for more power is usually a worthy trade off for elite players.
I can anecdotally use names like Vizquel, Ozzie Smith and others who remained elite defensively well into the late stages of their careers. What stat are you using to show Trout has regressed?
There are guys that peak later, but on average defense peaks at 26 if you look at aging curves that look at every player. I thought it would have been even earlier. On Trout, he came out as great defensively and has been good lately without looking him up. If you want a stat, look at DRS or URZ and factor in playing time. SBs are also a good proxy for speed. Trout has gotten slower. There is nothing abnormal about a guy peaking defensively in early to mid 20s. Provided the player is becoming a better overall player with added strength, it isn't a problem.
Problem with defensive stats is there are no good ones. Trout had one great DRS year (21) in 2012 which was his rookie year. He was negative in 2013 and 2014. He has never won a gold glove. Using defensive stats, Trout was only "elite" in 2012. If one, good statistically defensive year is all one has on their resume, then they were never elite to begin with and that one year was the outlier. So, is it your opinion that, based on defensive metrics, Trout "peaked" as a rookie? Perhaps we are arguing semantics. For example, If a player hits 50 home runs as a 22 year old and then hits 40 each of the next 10 seasons, it would be semantically accurate to say his HRs "peaked" as a 22 year old, but I think we would all agree that he never really peaked over those 11 seasons.
Defensive stats are basically equivalent in quality to ERA. They usually take about 3 years to get accurate data. It shouldn't take an abacus to check that Trout's first three years are significantly better defensively regardless of advanced defensive metric than his last three years of data. Do you think it is a coincidence that his best year by both major advanced defensive stats, his stolen bases, and advanced stats that measures base running outside of stolen bases all occurred as a 22-year old? It is almost like he has gotten slower despite being a relatively healthy player except for last year. Trout's defense likely peaked at 22, but he is a better overall player. Home run argument is a straw man. That would describe a plateau. Marisnick and Trout defensively have basically gone from about metaphorical 50 home run hitters to about metaphorical 15-20 home run hitters. Edit: This isn't to say that Marisnick or Trout has definitely had their best defensive year, but early signs are yes and in no way would it be outside the norm.
OK: now that's silly. Here ya go: 2016: 789.2 innings 213 defensive chances 203 put outs 9 assists 1 error 2017: 636.1 innings 136 defensive chances 131 put outs 3 assists 2 errors If Jake had ONE FEWER ERROR, his FP would have been .993. We are judging a defensive decline over one play? Please.
I think most of us base a decline on the 'eye test'. Jake did not look near the defensive player in 2017 that he did in 2015 and 2016. There were plays he made in the past that he did not make this season. They weren't errors just unmade plays.
Well, I think the eye test might fail then. He made 131/136 plays. 2 errors. That leaves only 3 plays unaccounted for. Compared to the 9 The 'eye test' is hard to quantify. It's more of a "I feel" approach.
- He did not make the same throws in 2017 that he did in 2015/2016. That is not reflected - He did not get to balls in 2017 that he did in 2015/2016. That is not reflected Unfortunately, defensive stats are hard to quantify. One of the newer ones is Defensive Runs Saved. In 2015 and 2016 Jake was +13 and +18. Last year he was +2. Also, his dWar was better in 2015 and 2016. Granted, he played less in 2017, but proportionately he was still worse in 2017.
I don’t think so. There are too many good left handed bats still on the market: Hosmer Moustakas Morrison CarGo Duda Jay Dyson Lind Melky Cabrera Walker Seth Smith Avila All but Moose and Hosmer and maybe Walker will sign for 1-2 years for under $10M/yr, which should be affordable for Houston. I’d be surprised if Houston didn’t add at least 1 bat. Add that list to Yelich, Lucroy, Realmuto, Martinez, Cain, Garcia, Castellanos, Abreu, Hamilton, Braun, Santana, Broxton, and Frazier, and there are just too many potential ways for Houston to improve its 2018 lineup. They may be set for pitching. Watson and Holland are the only relievers that make any sense and neither of them seem to be big enough upgrades to warrant a move, although if Houston is able to find someone to take on a big portion of Sipp’s contract or give up a good player/prospect for McHugh then that could change things. Darvish and Arrieta are the only SP that would crack Houston’s rotation, but it’s hard to see the Astros being the top bidder for either of them. I give it a 75% chance of adding a bat (that directly or indirectly fills the hole in LF), a 30% chance of adding a catcher, a 20% chance of adding a reliever, and a 10% chance of adding a starting pitcher. There’s also a decent (say 40% chance) they trade a superfluous player like McHugh, Sipp, or Stassi for a prospect. I’d put the over/under on 2 moves made prior to opening day.
I'd love to get Duda. When healthy he puts up the exact same stats at Hosmer, and he can probably be had on the cheap.
Where you going to play him? Always thought he was severely underrated, but he really shouldn't play the field outside of 1B.
Good question. If there was ever a year to load up, this is the one. The FA glut has guys still around that in previous years would have been signed already. Add to this that we are primed to win now and still have some payroll flexibility.
1B, move Gurriel to DH or have them split time between the two. Yes, I know we still have Gattis- just would rather have a guy like Duda, plus he's a lefty.
Duda has played over 200 mlb games in the OF, he’d be fine in LF, especially with Marisnick able to come in as a late game defensive sub. Duda would basically serve as a platoon bat for 1B, LF, and DH, as well as injury fill in if one of those spots needed it.
