Every organization is different so you can't just assume similar results across multiple franchises - but Aiken has been unhealthy, and since his surgery, ineffective. And I think a lot fans have forgotten the Astros made a last minute, relatively fair offer to Aiken - if he and his family/agent hadn't felt so burned, Alex Bregman likely isn't an Astro (or Kyle Tucker). They did want him; it's not like they abandoned him once they discovered the issue with his arm. Give them credit for having concern for the arm - but in the end, they got extremely lucky.
I agree with this position. A select few Hall of Fame caliber players that reach free agency at an age of 26-28 are likely going to be able to get deals in the 7-10 year range. If Carlos Correa remains healthy and productive, he will quite possibly get a 7-10 year deal in the range of 300 million dollars. The Astros won't match that, it just isn't going to happen. That will be reserved for the top 4-5 teams and possibly an owner that is over zealous. The interesting question is where does Jose Altuve fall into this? He will be a free agent AFTER the 2019..... he will be entering his age 30 season. He isn't getting a 10 year deal, but does he get a 7 year deal if he performs close to what he has through the 2019 season? Do the Astros counter with a shorter contract of 5 years but at 3-4 million more a season that a 7 year deal? I don't know honestly.
You are right about age. But is that the only factor? Edwin falls in the same category with who I listed for this years class, no? I guess the test is (for sake of our discussion), not what Correa demands since he falls under the age exception, but what will Altuve get in terms of years? You dont think Altuve gets anything over 5 years? I think it is pretty likely that he does. What about Springer?
Recap from Hinch on High Heat: Rich Dauer – very happy that Dauer made it through. Talked about his impact on the team. Cole is helping the Astros to turn the page on 2018. The team is doing a lot this offseason to prepare for 2018. Every year is a new team. Most of the team is enact for 2018. We’ll have a new team and be focus for 2018 Bullpen – we used a lot of rotation pitchers in the playoffs. We expect Giles to bounce back from what happened in the playoffs. He had a great year but just not a great post season. Feels people forget he had a great season. He expects him to be a really good closer. Can move Giles around if needed to. Russo pointed out that he expects Houston to actually do better this year compared to 2017. Said how most teams tend to have a down year after winning but pointed out how young the core is and how hungry these guys will be for 2018. Hinch said he has a lot of confidence in Verlander, Dallas, and McCullers to help sent the tone. We added some guys that have done some stuff in the game. Altuve is never satisfied, Correa is the perfect budding superstar, Springer and Bergman are built the right way to be hungry for this year. The fatigue is real but they plan to study it for this year. This team isn’t built to be too big for the moment. That’s not the way this team is built. One World Series championship won’t be too much for this group. Cole – Russo stated he feels like Cole is walking into the perfect situation since he is joining a team that is already a good place for pitching and doesn’t need to do too much. Hinch - Has great success in this league and we do feel like he was a little unlucky last year. Our team feels like we can help cultivate some things for him. He is a big high end pitcher that can blend in. Every day we’ll be able to roll out a great pitcher. We can win series, can win months, and hopefully win the division. All these guys in our rotation don’t have to do too much other than pitch.
Correa will be grouped with Machado and Harper, meaning he will be a massive brinks truck contract. Springer likely gets a 5 year deal from somebody. If he maintains a really high level over the next few years, then he might be so tantalizing that he could get 6/7. Hitting at 31 isn't great for an extended contract for Springer Altuve will still be pretty young at 29, and assuming he's still playing at an MVP level, he might get an 8 year deal. The true game changers are still going to get big deals. 35 isn't a drop dead age, teams are willing to go a year or 2 over if there's enough good years in front. But the days of teams doling out massive contracts that run until a guy is 40 are gone. That is where a ton of the huge deals over the last decade have come from. Cano, Pujols, Cabrera,Votto.
To your point, I hope they can re-sign Correa. He seems like he really wants to be here and has stated that in a very recent interview. I think the key for Correa, Houston, or any other club will be his health. If he can stay healthy, I can see him getting a massive deal.
I think it is very unlikely that Correa resigns with the Astros. He is likely looking at a 10 year deal or longer, and at an amount that will be many hundreds of millions of dollars. I
I can’t imagine any way Crane let’s Altuve or Correa walk. He will see the spike in sell outs and the Astros shop running out of $200 jerseys, etc. And perhaps 1 or 2 or 3 more championships before 2022. I’d even be surprised if Altuve and Correa aren’t handed deserving extensions. As long as the Astros can develop pitching with the likes of Whitley, Martes, Bukauskas, etc they will be fine not having too dish out $100 mil+ to Keuchel
At some point, just like Biggio/Bagwell, the players will have to buy into making it work together (ie. home team discount). If not, probably one will not return.
Teams that expect to be over the cap may prefer to add a year or two for position players if they can usually get the average annual value down. AAV is what is used in luxury tax calculations. I doubt we'll see crazy contracts for a player until he is 40 unless it is an attempt to circumvent the luxury tax. Not sure if the MLB has protections similar to the NBA to prevent this.
I think if Houston ends up winning back to back or go on a run like the Golden State Warriors, I think some would consider taking a discount to keep the team together.
I somewhat disagree with this - I think if anything they’d be more likely to bounce as they will have already won multiple championships and at this point would be looking for a pay day. Basketball is different as players legacies are judged based on rings and the salary cap basically dictates how much they can make anyway (I.e. KD took like a three million a year paycut...yawn).
I think every championship they get gives them more leverage and more money from the Astros. Unlike Golden State, there's no salary cap here. By winning a World Series, they can directly point to their contributions bringing more money to Crane, which means they've earned him more money that he could theoretically spend on them.
It's not your post, Major, but this whole discussion that is the most glass-half-empty discussion ever. Will our core young players leave years down the line when they get a chance? Maybe! There are so many variables! I'd much rather speculate on how many World Series appearances and titles we can get before then. And how awesome Correa, Springer, Altuve, Bregman etc. are going to be in the upcoming years. God, I really hope we're in the terrible spot where the Astros are a dynasty team with multiple championships and have to worry about paying their good players out of their ever increasing revenue stream.
Its less about half empty glasses and more about realizing that WS contention windows dont last forever. And the cause of such correlates to the economic reality that we cant give all our core guys their paydays, which means either trading them before they bolt or possibly losing for nothing in FA. I do agree with you that it would be a shame to let this future mandate poison the enjoyment and success at the moment.
Well, there's not really a lot to discuss about the team. We're awesome, we have very few holes, star players and a chip already in tow. On top of that, we should be awesome for the next few years. Trust me, nobody here appreciates these facts more than we do. Some of us tolerated a lot of crap baseball to get to this point. But we want to talk some baseball, and there isn't much to talk about right now in regards to the 2018 club. The fact that discussing impending departures 3-5 years away is the fear, things are obviously pretty f**king good
Yes we would likely get a pick, no it wouldn't be from the signing team, that's the simple explanation, but the whole process is complicated AF these days. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/07/mlb-free-agency-compensation-rules-draft-picks-qualifying-offer Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez are free agents after this season, and both could be strong qualifying offer candidates. As for comp picks for the big guns down the line, I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point.
