The Astros will get Cole for two years. They should get 5-6 WAR over the next two years. Cole has more upside than that, but Cole has alternated between 22 and 33 starts the last four years. The Pirates may very well end winning the WAR battle of this trade, since Musgrove and Moran are both young and still have years before their prime with projectible skills. But the Astros have a championship window opened wide for the next two years. Cole is decided starter upgrade, so his acquisition increases their chances of getting to and winning another World Series in the next two years.
That was Ben Zobrist. He had a almost 40 war from age 28-33. That is a little more than 6 war a season.
I don't remember being that excited by the Bourne trade which didn't feature any top prospects. I think the Pirates are getting guys with a good floor. I see Moran as a David Freese type, but from the left side. I think Musgrove & Feliz have closer potential, with Musgrove having solid middle of the rotation, possible #2 upside. I'd be disappointed for sure if I was a Pirates fan. For a guy that was a Cy Young candidate 2 years ago, it has to be underwhelming not to get more.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-might-be-the-perfect-team-for-gerrit-cole/ Excerpt The most likely change for Cole is to throw fewer four-seamers, more sinkers, and more breaking balls. That would go with his strengths — by spin, movement, and velocity — and away from his weaknesses. Conveniently, the Astros are all about this sort of change. Only four teams have thrown fewer four-seamers in the history of PITCHf/x technology, for example. This is a team that took Collin McHugh from the Rockies based on a high-spin curve and then encouraged him to throw more cutters than straight fastballs. They repeated the trick with Charlie Morton, at least by encouraging more curves than he’d ever thrown before. The next breakout for Gerrit Cole might arrive by throwing more sinkers and high-spin breaking balls. The good news is, he’s now headed to a team that’s all about that sort of change. The defending champs just got better.
I'm still shocked by how little it costed. His peripherals across the board are extremely similar to the guy he was from 13-15, the only difference is a few more balls flew out. Now there was a league wide trend towards getting the ball in the air last year, so it can't be ignored entirely as a fluke, but it could be very well be just that. Combined with our gospel of the breaking ball, it's very easy to see how he could be back to a guy getting Cy Young votes. And even if he doesn't, if he's just a decent starter for 2 years, it's still worth it. I was against the trade when I thought the cost was Whitley or Tucker. I just assumed we would have to part with one of them, or maybe Bukauskas and Alvarez. Never in a million years did I think we could get a deal done with supporting pieces. This trade very well could have not only improved 2018, but also properly armed the 2019 team as well, regardless of what happens with DK and Morton. All while holding onto our biggest prospects. Just crazy.
We have sir Whitley coming up who I believe can replace Morton's ability in due time. I would not mind convincing Morton to take less and become a bull pen guy to pro long his career.
This is great and all, it really is. Cole may have had a down year last year, but think about taking a pitcher, ANY pitcher, and putting him behind OUR offense.. any pitcher is going to have a better record after coming to this team, with this offense and defense. So I expect Cole will suddenly become a *greatly improved* pitcher this year, which is wonderful. I am still very concerned about our bullpen, especially the closer. How can this team not have a legit closer? That is going to be making me nervous all year. It is pure amazing that we won it all this past year with basically no closer. I just don't think that is a viable strategy in the long run. So come on Luhnow, don't stop now, find us a legit closer, and we'll be set!
It would seem like a nice option. Many starters absolutely loathe being made into relievers. He does come off as a very humble guy, but you never know. Another solid season, and some team is gonna make him a pretty nice offer in free agency. I'm convinced the Astros are gonna break the mold with thier starters this year. DK,Verlander, and Cole will likely start every 5th game like normal if healthy. But Peacock, Morton, McCullers and McHugh are gonna be used in a very non traditional way. Short starts, long relief outings, and 10 day DL stints. I imagine Martes will start back in Fresno, hopefully he will pitch well enough to force his way in. With this addition, I imagine McHugh's place on this team is very tenuous.
I would love to see McCullers/Peacock pitch every other start and due some relief at times. I do not like his long term projection as a TOR starter.
Zobrist was a guy that looked exactly like a top 100 prospect should look, but the slow grading curve that experts have never got him ranked like one. Same as armenteros right now. You have to have the pedigree though or the experts make you prove it for a lot longer. I remember thinking back then the exact same thing as I think now with armenteros. Why is he not rated higher?
When Tom Hanks gets back from that island with his volleyball, he's going be stunned at how many World Series titles the Astros have accumulated and how many Fed Ex he will have deliver from the Chronicle to us fans.
He had zero power, great OB skills, and couldn't play SS regularly. He was 25 in AA when he was traded. Those kind of guys don't really make many top prospect lists. Hunsicker said, the day after he traded for him, that he could someday be a valuable utility guy, ala Marwin on these Stros. Nobody, literally nobody, expected Zobrist to develop like he did. Props to the guy for working his ass off to get where he got.
This has to be the only excuse for a why a company takes months to deliver something less than 10 miles away. I'm not sure how they manage to get to an island without leaving the city limits, but I can't think of logical reasons.
I have complete confidence that the Astros will be able to refine Cole's mechanics to make him a more elite starting pitcher. I love this move, a perfect example of addition by subtraction.
Not really sure there's anything mechanical to fix, maybe fiddle with a grip on a pitch, but I'd think more changes in pitch selection/repertoire.
Just saying, "mechanics" means more body-stuff: foot placement, stride, drive angle, arm angle, release point, lead shoulder, etc.... I agree with your point, I'm anxious to see what Strom and Ground Control can do. eta: and HINCH! That guy knows a thing or 3 about pitching as well.
For all the talk on reducing his FB usage, his 2017 FB moved like his 2015 FB. Big difference is location. Last two years, he has thrown his 4 seam lower. His 4 seam gets hit more often lower. Last two years, batters have worked on elevating pitches down. While I think Strom will have him throw more curves, I think he will also bring back the high fastballs which are harder to hit and look more like curveball longer in flight.
